Posted on 02/19/2016 2:59:33 PM PST by Trumpinator
Gwynne Dyer: Turks and Saudis know any Russia fight will be lonely one
9:32 AM Wednesday Feb 17, 2016
Between last Thursday and Monday, the Turkish government, in league with Saudi Arabia, made a tentative decision to enter the war on the ground in Syria - and then got cold feet about it. Or more likely, the Turkish army simply told the government that it would not invade Syria and risk the possibility of a shooting war with the Russians.
The Turkish government bears a large share of the responsibility for the devastating Syrian civil war. From the start, Turkey's leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan was publicly committed to overthrowing the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad. For five years he kept Turkey's border with Syria open so that arms, money and volunteers could flow across to feed the rebellion.
Erdogan's hatred of Assad is rooted in the fact that he is a militant Sunni Muslim while Assad leads a regime dominated by Shia Muslims. Both men rule countries that are officially secular, but Erdogan's long-term goal is to impose Islamic religious rule on Turkey.
Assad is defending the multi-ethnic, multi-faith traditional character of Syrian society - while also running a brutally repressive regime. Neither man gives a fig for democracy.
Saudi Arabia has been Erdogan's main ally in the task of turning Syria into a Sunni-ruled Islamic state (although 30 per cent of Syrians are not Sunni Muslims). Together these countries and some smaller Gulf states subverted the original non-violent movement in Syria that was demanding a secular democracy, and then armed and supplied the Sunni-dominated armed rebellion that replaced it.
The US government also wanted to see Assad's regime destroyed (for strategic reasons, not religious ones). So for years Washington turned a blind eye to the fact that its allies, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, were actually supporting the extremists of Islamic State (Isis) and the Nusra Front, al-Qaeda's franchise in Syria.
Largely as a result of that support, these two extremist organisations now completely dominate the Syrian revolt against Assad's rule, accounting for 80-90 per cent of the active fighters. Turkey and Saudi Arabia finally broke their ties with Islamic State last year, but they still back the Nusra Front, which has camouflaged itself behind an array of minor "moderate" groups in the so-called "Army of Islam".
When the Nusra Front, with strong Turkish support, overran much of northwestern Syria last spring, Russia finally went to the aid of its long-standing ally, the Syrian government. Russian air power helped the Syrian army push back the troops of both the Nusra Front and Islamic State. Erdogan pushed back, ordering Turkish fighters to shoot down a Russian bomber last November.
Even at the time, however, it was clear that the Turkish army was very unhappy about the prospect of a military clash with Russia. It doesn't share Erdogan's dream of an Islamist-ruled Syria either. Meanwhile the Russian bombs kept falling, the Syrian army went on advancing, and now it has cut the main supply line from Turkey to the rebels in and around Aleppo.
Erdogan is frustrated and angry, and he now has an equally reckless ally in Prince Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudi deputy Crown Prince and defence minister. Over the past week these two men appear to have talked themselves into a limited military incursion into Syria to push the regime's troops back and reopen the supply lines to the rebels.
On Sunday the Turkish army began shelling Syrian Kurdish forces. On Monday Assad's government complained to the UN that about a hundred "Turkish soldiers or mercenaries" had crossed the border into Syria. But at that point the grown-ups took over, and the Turkish defence minister denied that there was any intention to invade Syria.
France publicly warned Turkey to end its attacks, and there were doubtless secret but frantic warnings to the same effect from Turkey's other Nato allies. Turkey (and Saudi Arabia) have almost certainly been put on notice that if they choose to start a local war with Russian forces in Syria, they will have to fight it alone.
So that is probably the end of that, and everybody can get back to the business of partitioning Syria - which is what all the talk of a "cessation of hostilities" is really about.
Gwynne Dyer is an independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.
Born in St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada, 17 April 1943. Educated at the Memorial University of Newfoundland, B.A. in History, 1963; Rice University in Houston, Texas, U.S.A., M.A. in Military History, 1966; King's College, University of London, Ph.D. in Military and Middle Eastern History, 1973. Served as Reserve Naval Officer in Royal Canadian Naval Reserve, 1956-64, 1966-68; U.S. Naval Reserve, 1964-66; British Royal Navy Reserve, 1968-73. Employed as a lecturer in military history, Canadian Forces College in Toronto, Ontario; senior lecturer in war studies, Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst, England, 1973-77; producer of various radio and television special series from 1978; syndicated columnist, international affairs from 1973. Recipient: International Film Festival Awards; International Film Festival Awards, 1984; Best Writing Gemini for The Space Between, 1986.
I just read some tweets that indicate Turkish tanks have crossed the Syrian border.
They are gonna get their asses kicked.
Could you please provide the link to the article, rather than a link to the front page of his website? Thanks.
Oh how ironic it is that the Russians are on the right side of this war
“Turks and Saudis know any Russia fight will be lonely one”
Me write headlines for caveman news service.
What the hell does that even mean?
syria is’t going to be partitioned.
putin’s not in there to get a “part” back for assad.
they’ve both made it clear it’s all or nothing.
The Turks and Saudis won’t have any allies from the big powers/NATO in starting a war with Russia in Syria.
Syria and Russia have both announced on several occasions that their intent is to establish Assad's control over all of Syria.
There will be not political partition and the de facto partition will only last until the revitalized Syrian Army shows up with Russian Air.
I don't believe the Turkish army is that stupid.
The Sunnis are the "standard" Muslims of the world.
However, Iran is a SOLID Shia Muslim enclave. There were/are many Shia Muslims in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia as well. My boss (with ARAMCO) was one, as were many of the men in our department.
I'm not sure that they would go to war over it. This breach happened in 632 so they've had MUCH TIME, say 1,300+ years, to "get over it."
Personally, I would guess that it would be over power.
By the way, if it ever came to war my money would be on the Turks. They are ferocious fighters, a la the Indian Sikhs. The Arabs would run.
I wonder if the Iranians would get involved. The Saudis against the Iranians would be popcorn time.
John Bachelor show. Podcast. Gregory Copley.
In a war, my money is on the Turks. This move is bravado and brash, and, the knowledge of their fighting capacity and the knowledge that the Arabs would prefer to run.
That WOULD be interesting.
77.4 million Iranians and 28 million in Saudi Arabia, only 20 million Saudis and eight million foreigners (working in the petroleum and natural gas business and all that goes with a burgeoning population).
Google
The battle would be Turkish tanks vs Russian Air.
Turkey does not have the air power to defend those tanks from the Russian Air Force.
Maybe you're right but then, the Turks might buy air power from the USA, Chinese...or even from the Russians. The Russians would sell to ANYONE.
News WAS that many of the Russian planes are outdated and not well maintained. But, that may just be sour grapes from others.
Overall, it's over 2,000 fighters vs 248 F-16s.
Yeah, they're Block 50's, but they could be all downed in 2 days.
If they even managed to get off the ground.
Then, out comes the Russian tank killers...unopposed.
If all else fails Russia nukes the sand. If you are going to use a nuke - an arid land full of Muslims is a no brainier for Putin. It would send a message to NATO and the EU about eastern expansion to boot.
Perhaps, perhaps not.
I wouldn't put it past Putin to break off the Kurdish sector and give Erdogan a newly minted Kurdistan on his border to keep him fully occupied...
Wow! that would be a nasty move.
I hate erdogan and hear the people want a secular govt. But wasn’t he voted in fairly?
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