Posted on 02/08/2016 6:05:08 PM PST by Helicondelta
If present polling trends hold (a big "if"), then Donald Trump is poised to not just win the New Hampshire primary by double digits, he also stands to benefit greatly from a confused muddle of also-rans -- a cohort of candidates who may not do well enough to challenge his lead but also likely won't do poorly enough to leave the race.
Thus, the race would move on to South Carolina with Ted Cruz wounded slightly by the New Hampshire results, Rubio wounded badly, and the trio of governors energized just enough to stay in and keep attacking Rubio in the quest to gain exclusive ownership of the so-called "establishment lane."
Under this scenario, the loyal Trump plurality gives him disproportionate power not just in South Carolina but in the massive "SEC primary" that follows one week later.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
This is about keeping these “players” playing in order to get an open convention where they will try to slay TRUMP.
You brought up an excellent point and reminder.
Romney “fixed” it in ‘12 in order to stop insurgent Ron Paul by show time, (at convention).
Yes, it’s all about RNC GOPe control.
Sad thing is, the lessor candidates will hang in there helping the RNC GOPe to screw with the outcome hoping their guy and screw the leader.
In the end, their guy will get screwed too.
Then we wind up with Rubio or Bush.
After March 15 the primaries will be winner takes all. Open convention is a fantasy. The calendar favors Trump.
Sorry...I was doing a couple of things at once, and I didn’t finish typing even though I thought I did.
I suspect that it will be a normal day tomorrow, with some residual snow on the roads, but they will be plowed and salted.
The weather idiots think a few flakes is a snow disaster. Most of us ignore 6-7 inches.
I grew up in Boylston/Redfield, NY where 3-4 feet of lake effect snow happened several times per winter, and it was not unusual. And a 12” dumping was a regular occurrence. 300+ inches on an average year.
Jeb will put a snowplow on the front of his mothers walker if he has to.
I’m not voting for Cruz because his wife is a high paid executive of Goldman Sachs. Therefore he’s bought and paid for. This is like Michelle Obama having that 300,000 dollar hospital job when her husband was in Chicago politics. Or the Clinton daughter has a cushy banking executive job.
It explains why the GOPe have had their candidates fight against each other so hard instead of attacking Trump.
Every one who gets 10% takes a delegate from Trump.
But I agree it's not just winning 8 states, the rules say a majority of the delegates in each of 8 states. So if everyone stays in, then the nomination might be determined by the winner takes all and winner take most states.
However New Hampshire does have a 10% inclusion threshold. So it's possible when the <10% candidates are excluded that Trump will get >50% of the delegates.
South Carolina on Feb 20 is a winner take all state. Many of the Super Tuesday states have 10% to 20% thresholds.
Iowa doesn’t count towards the 8 for Cruz because Cruz didn’t win a majority.
EXXXXzactly.
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