Posted on 02/05/2016 10:08:07 AM PST by Kaslin
I have, since last September, written several times that I think the 2016 campaign comes down to a race between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. The loss in Iowa after leading in the ten polls preceding the caucuses has taken the wind out of Donald Trump's sails. He is refusing to invest in New Hampshire and will not buy expansive data to micro-target voters.
I suspect Christie, Bush, Kasich, and Fiorina fade. Ben Carson is already fading. Despite Carson's attacks on Ted Cruz over urging Carson supporters to stand with Cruz, the facts are that Ted Cruz's campaign relied on CNN reporting to tell Cruz's supporters that Ben Carson was getting off the campaign trail after Iowa. Carson's campaign has cut fifty staffers and is already announcing more cuts after New Hampshire. Carson will be out soon. He is using Ted Cruz as a way to stay on life support, but his campaign is over.
Trump, as long as he stays in, is more an opportunist who will say and do anything to get elected. Trump was recently endorsed by former Senator Scott Brown, who won a special election in Massachusetts, lost re-election, then moved to New Hampshire to try to get back to the Senate. Trump has been hopping party to party since the '90s trying to get himself into power. The endorsement was fitting. The endorsement, like Sarah Palin's albatross around Trump's neck, will not save him.
That leaves Cruz and Rubio as the last men standing. Both have substantial war chests and heavily funded super PACs to run ads and build ground game operations. Rubio continues to get endorsements from political leaders, but Cruz continues to pick up sizable support from people mad at political leaders.
If voters feel like the 2016 election is the last election to save the American experiment, Ted Cruz really is their only option. If voters feel like things are coming to an end in this country without drastic action, they really do not have a choice between Rubio and Cruz. They have only Cruz. Cruz is the disruptive candidate. A voter who feels like the end is near without drastic action has to take the gamble on Cruz, who still has a good chance to win.
Rubio, on the other hand, is the candidate for voters who think the best days are still ahead of us regardless of what happens in 2016. Democrats may fear Rubio as a candidate, but the base of the Democratic Party does not fear him like Ted Cruz. They think they could wait out Marco Rubio, even after eight years in power, and see few of their advances surrendered.
Washington's lobbyists think that Marco Rubio will not be a disruptive force to them. They know Washington will still be mostly the center of people's lives to a greater degree with Marco Rubio than with Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz will burn Washington to the ground and throw lobbyists on the street. Marco Rubio will strategically raze parts of Washington, putting fewer lobbyists in danger than Cruz. At least that is the thinking, and it is the thinking that is reflected in the attacks on both men.
For critics of Cruz, he cannot win. The reality is that Cruz can win, but if he wins those lobbyists and politicians attacking him will be out of a job. The Washington elite have every incentive to stop Cruz because he absolutely would be transformational, though his path to victory may be harder than Rubio's.
For critics of Rubio, he will not go far enough. The reality is that Rubio may have an easier time winning, but his critics do not believe he will go far enough and do as much to fix the problems in Washington.
Cruz and Rubio would both be conservative to varying degrees. What is at stake between the two is how easy their election would be and how transformational their presidency would be. Rubio backers are looking at the path to the White House. Cruz backers are willing to take a gamble on the slog of a general election campaign so they can see Washington rent asunder.
As a matter of fact I consider a lethal one.
Remember, the Dems have retained their super-delegate arrangement, which controls their nomination process.
Care to advance a possible scenario...?
Trump, as long as he stays in, is more an opportunist who will say and do anything to get elected.
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I think Trump saying to ban Muslims shows him to be willing buck the tide of political correctness. That showed me something.
I am expecting Sanders to end up winning the presidency. America is too far gone for anything other than communism. We are divided and fractured into oblivion. Fraud is the way to obtain power and there is no way to fix it.
Same here. Cruz is still my guy, though.
I am expecting Sanders to end up winning the presidency.
Not likely; that idiot is the only Dem that could win it for the Pubs...but that would please all the blustering Rubiophobes out there...
my nose-holding days are over.
In all candor, Hilary couldn’t care less if you’re pinching your nostrils or not, as long as you make her happy...
I am offended by the use of your term ‘moderate’ to describe Paul Ryan.
At least moderates are half-right or right half the time.
The last two elections were crypto-lefty vs. more-lefty. I don’t think that an actual moderate has cinched the nomination since W.
In the long run, Rubio v. Hillary is the same outcome no matter who wins.
I might vote Rubio just to spite Hill, but I won’t expect my vote to change anything.
Ryan is a statist, as are Hillary and all the other republican/democrat establishment 'team players'.
>> if Rubio is indeed nominated, Hilary Clinton thanks you in advance for your support <<
Here’s a serious question:
Can you explain in rational and non-emotional terms exactly why your statement is credible, given that virtually every poll shows Rubio runs better against Hilary than does any other potential GOP nominee?
-— The loss in Iowa after leading in the ten polls preceding the caucuses has taken the wind out of Donald Trump’s sails. He is refusing to invest in New Hampshire and will not buy expansive data to micro-target voters.-—
The death of the Trump campaign will be his unwillingness to operate like a politican and operate like a marketing business...
The two arenas are vastly different...
Trump is selling an image/brand at large rather than selling door to door...to seal the deal...
Bottom line is the electorate like having their butt kissed and Trump doesn’t kiss butt...
Either of them would be okay with me. Rubio was a freshman senator and didn’t do much but Cruz has been around longer and still didn’t do much. Whether it’s because their attitudes are too accommodating or too intransigent, it had the same effect. Their programs are very close, with perhaps a difference in semantics, but in any case only the general outline ever survives.
Possibly either one of them would be better in the executive position. Cruz would still have to learn to work with people to get his general objectives, unless he plans to rule by executive order, and Rubio would have to be stronger than Bush in defending himself and his programs. So we shall see as the campaigns play out.
I think Rubio could win nationally, but I’m not so sure about Cruz. Their positions are very similar, but Rubio is a more attractive personality. That said, I’d vote for either of them, but im a conservative Republican and most of the country is not.
The only thing most of the country would vote for is who is going to give them the most freebies.
Am I supposed to know the difference between Lars Larson & Erick Erickson?
Touchback Trump is far from dead, but his loss in Iowa does put a chink in his armor.
Except when Marco was in the Florida legislature, he wasn’t all that gun friendly. I’m sure he was for “sensible” gun laws. In any case, whoever donates the most to him, he’ll honor with his vote. Maybe GOA needs to take a look at all of Marco’s history.
Not only that, but shortly before the Iowa caucuses, several Carson staffers quit and moved to Cruz.
I like and admire Ben Carson. I think there should be a place for him in the Cabinet. I don't think he's ready to be president.
He should have run for Senator.
They have, his worst grade (that I could find) was 2010. He was rated “B.”
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