Marco Rubio’s very big night in Iowa

Washington Post ^

[TigerClaws]

Sure, his rival won the first-in-the-nation nominating contest. And he didn't even come in second place. In fact, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) came in third, exactly where we predicted he would.

But it's how Rubio came in third that makes all the difference. Polling indicated Rubio would be a distant third, trailing by perhaps double digits in the socially conservative state — an afterthought behind the two candidates expected to duke it out for first: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and Donald Trump.

[justlittleoleme]

So for comparison

2012 Caucus Results
Santroum - 29,839 Votes - Winner
Romney - 29,805 Votes - Second Place

Romney went on to win the nomination

2008 Caucus Results
Huckabee - 40,841 - Winner
McCain - 15,559 - Forth Place

McCain went on to win the nomination

2000 Caucus Results
Bush - 35,948 - Winner
Forbes - 26,744 - Second Place

Bush went on to win the nomination

1996 Caucus Results
Dole - 25,461 - Winner
Buchanan - 22,578 - Second Place

Dole went on to win the nomination

So Cruz won with 51,649 votes breaking any previous record for IOWA republican caucuses.
Cruz’s win was 10,628 more votes than any previous winner and more than anyone who has won the nomination for the Republican Party.

[ek_hornbeck]

I've come to the conclusion that Rubio is more dangerous than Jeb. Rubio has the same agenda as Jeb, but is more adept at conning conservative voters into thinking that he's on their side. He got elected with the help of the Tea Party, and is now laughing all the way to the bank.

Furthermore, Rubio seems youthful, charismatic, and telegenic whereas "low Energy" Jeb is not. In other words, Rubio is the same pile of dung as Jeb Bush, but all done up in pretty, shiny wrapping paper.

[justlittleoleme]

“I challenge these results. Trumps crowds were huge. The other guys didn”t have that kind of interest. Nobody did. There was no sign that masses of Trump attendees decided they didn”t like him so much.”

Trump had no ground game in Iowa, what he has is a stadium filling made for tv spectacle.

[VanDeKoik]

So your conclusion is what?

Iowa’s lousy history of picking nominees for either party is broken....because vote totals?

Sorry to break it to you, but the old story is still the same.

And what happened to 1988 and 1980?

[TXSearcher]

Can we knock it off from both sides knocking Trump or Cruz and focus on the bigger picture of letting that sleaze bag Rubio and the establishment in?

I doubt it, because we are being played like a fine fiddle to keep the "hatred" flowing between Cruz and Trump supporters, so the anointed Rubio moves into first. Trump was the establishment's pick to go against who ever "their guy" was from day one....which was easy to tell by all the free media coverage they gave Trump, while having a "media black out" on Cruz. Egging him on, Trump fell into their trap by going nuclear on Cruz too early, which brought BOTH of their numbers down and opened the door for the "anointed one" to move in as the only "nice, winnable" candidate.

Just watch Fox....they will continue to showcase Trump, sing EXTENSIVE praises of Rubio's "miraculous rise" and either deride or ignore Cruz, just like they did last night and this morning.

If Trump or Cruz are going to beat the establishment, it's time to ignore each other and point all guns towards Rubio.

[Teacher317]

Cruz won't make up 20 pts in NH or SC. He doesn't need to. The story from now until March 1 (Super Tuesday, 12 states) is what happens with Marco Rubio on FEB 9 (NH), FEB 20 (SC), and FEB 23 (NV), and how the numbers compare with expectations.

Last night, Cruz and Rubio both topped expectations by about five points (and Trump got about five points fewer than expected). That was the story of the night, and will shape the next few weeks with the GOPE and media going for Marco and hoping Trump and Cruz keep hitting each other more than the issues.

FEB 9 in NH, it is expected that Trump gets 33 pct, and there is a four-way virtual tie for second between Cruz, Kasich, Bush and Rubio (10-11 pct each).

FEB 20 in SC, it is expected that Trump gets 36 pct, and Cruz 20, and Rubio 13 pct. (Bush 10 and Carson 9 are still relevant)

FEB 23 in NV, it is expected that Trump gets 33 pct, Cruz 20, and Rubio 11 pct.

Any significant variations from those numbers will be made into "THE story"... either Trump walking away with the win, the Empire striking back with Marco, or the shocking upset bid by Cruz (or someone else??).

By FEB 24, Trump should be in the lead by a decent margin and only the gap between Trump and the other two matters. Cruz's good ground game, and Marco's GOPE support, should keep them close.... but the ground game won't matter for Super Tuesday, since nobody can cover THAT much ground in 7 days. By March 2, after Super Tuesday, it should be officially down to a 3-man race... but again the GOPE can keep in other candidates to help keep Trump from getting simple majorities in the 8 states required to get the nomination (new rule passed in 2012 after the TEA Party scared the GOPE).

[Electric Graffiti]

“If Rubio wins, America loses.”

If Trump loses, America is lost.

[Teacher317]

Ted Cruz is a career politician.

Ted Cruz is a career politician whose career has been solely concentrated upon supporting the Constitution and limited government, in the face of the establishment and the rest of Congress, so much so that we keep hearing about how nobody in the Senate supports him... Yet you want us to believe that after decades of swimming upstream, and fighting alone, he will suddenly change directions at the very end once he is in a real position to make some real differences? Sorry, I'm not buying it.

[SZonian]

"If Trump or Cruz are going to beat the establishment, it's time to ignore each other and point all guns towards Rubio."

I do agree with you, however, good luck with that. I've come to the conclusion that there are dedicated trolls here on FR who's sole purpose is to continue widening the rift between the 2 camps here. Call out some of these posters and the long knives come out...there is an obvious pattern and tactic.

[justlittleoleme]

Since you asked.

1988
Robert Dole 40,661 - 1st place
George Bush 20,194 - 3rd place

George Bush went on to win the nomination

1984 - Not Republican Caucuses (Ronald Reagan unopposed for Renomination)

1980
George Bush 33,530
Ronald Reagan 31,348

Ronald Reagan went on to win the nomination

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/caucus-history-past-years-results/

Ted Cruz is no Robert Dole, George Bush, or Huckabee. He will win the nomination.

[wardaddy]

Do you think Cruz can make up his deficit in South Carolina in three weeks?

It’s quite a bit.....18 points and up

Iowa is a caucus state which showcases party active folks

South Carolina is open primary

A different animal

Then comes Super Tuesday

Trump or Cruz is win win to me

This Rubio surge troubles me but I don’t see him shining in NH or SC

Cruz is not in strong second in either of those

[Kenny]

He didn’t change direction, he’s just sneaky about helping out his donors, amnesty, TPA, those little votes Cruz didn’t quite understand.

[ActresponsiblyinVA]

Hold your nose and enjoy Clinton.

[VanDeKoik]

“Ted Cruz is no Robert Dole, George Bush, or Huckabee. He will win the nomination.”

So NOW your conclusion is Iowa’s lousy history of choosing nominees is wrong because.....you like this particular candidate?

He leaves a state with one whole delegate more than the next two people, and is going into contests for the next few weeks, where he is behind, sometimes by large numbers, and no time to camp out in those states.

[Baynative]

Someone needs to find their way into a Rubio Town Hall and put him on the spot about amnesty.

Cruz was able to shut down the gang of eight when he offered his amendment to make it illegal for them to vote. Now, Rubio should be asked the same question. He only need to answer it once.

He made a speech about the rigorous background check process and I peppered his office and his social media sites to ask if he would make cross checking voter registration sites part of the process so felony election fraud perps could be denied further process.

Of course the question was ignored.

[dfwgator]

Yep, Rubio needs to be taken out NOW, the longer he hangs around, the tougher he’ll be to beat.

[justlittleoleme]

I guess we will see in a week won’t we.

Ted Cruz has been laying a tremendous support network and ground game for a long time.
Chess vs Checkers.

[uncitizen]

I really hope you are right because that can be fixed. Establishment voter fraud is not as easy to fix.

[ek_hornbeck]

This Rubio surge troubles me but I don’t see him shining in NH or SC

Rubio will stay in third place as long as Jeb, Christie, Kasich, and Fiorina are there to split the establishment vote. If all or most of them drop out, we may very well get stuck with Mr. Gang of Eight as the nominee with the conservative/anti-establishment vote split between Trump and Cruz.

Then again, Iowa is a bad predictor of things to come, not because of demographics, but because Caucus-goers are a more committed group of voters than those in primaries. You only get the subset who are willing to spend a whole evening on the process as opposed to a few minutes. Not sure how this will play out, but usually anti-establishment voters are more committed and driven than milquetoast establishment supporters.

[Electric Graffiti]

“Rubio needs to be taken out NOW”

If we had a real media, including the psuedo conservative radio talkers.....Cruz and Rubio wouldn’t even be on stage.