Posted on 02/02/2016 5:31:18 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
WEST DES MOINES, Iowa -- Donald Trump's supporters showed up at the Sheraton Monday night fully expecting their man to win the Iowa caucuses. And why shouldn't they? Trump had held a lead of varying sizes in 13 of the last 13 polls listed in the RealClearPolitics average of Iowa polls. How could that not win?
"Beats the hell out of me," said Michelle Tepley, a Trump fan from Waukee. "It doesn't make any sense."
"Sad," said Kimberly Hawn of West Des Moines.
"I don't know, I don't know," said Steve Brewer of Norwalk.
Months ago, before Trump took the lead in Iowa, a number of analysts argued that he wasn't a "good fit" for the state's Republican electorate, made up heavily of voters who describe themselves as born-again evangelical Christians. Then Trump took the lead and -- in the polls at least -- fought off challenges from Ben Carson and eventual winner Ted Cruz. So analysts thought Trump might not be so bad a fit after all.
But on caucus night, some of Trump's supporters returned to the old "bad fit" theory to explain Trump's surprise loss.
"It was the evangelicals," said Dick Stoffer of West Des Moines. "They've done it before -- they did it four years before with Santorum, they did it with Huckabee before that."
"The evangelicals," said Carol Anne Tracy of West Des Moines. "We've got a lot of evangelicals, and I just don't think they felt that [Trump] praised God enough."
"It's happened before -- the guy with the biggest Bible wins Iowa," said Ken Crow, a Tea Party activist from Winterset.
The caucus results -- Trump soundly beaten by Cruz, finishing barely ahead of Marco Rubio -- seemed to confirm another nagging suspicion about the Trump campaign: that it had not paid sufficient attention to turning out its voters.
Most of the people at the Trump event had attended caucuses earlier in the evening. At those caucuses, the presiding officer asked whether there was a representative from each campaign present to speak, and, if not, whether anyone attending would like to speak on a particular candidate's behalf. At the caucus I attended, in Pleasant Hill, a suburb just east of Des Moines, there was no one to speak for Trump -- no representative of the campaign -- and no voter willing to stand up and speak on his behalf. (The precinct ended in a Cruz landslide: 110 votes for the Texas senator, versus 36 for Trump and 34 for Rubio.)
At the Sheraton, some Trump supporters had similar stories.
"We were at a caucus and Trump didn't even have anyone there to speak for him," one man told me.
"That's insane," added a man nearby.
I believe Conservatives will continue to see the truth as to who Trump really is at his core. His free media exposure will greatly diminish. The Democrat race is as interesting as ours.
I hope that both Trump and Cruz can coordinate truth attacks on Rubio. Lay off each other and pound him back into the single digits.
“I am fairly certain that would not be the message on FR “
Actually it would be, because you guys would be pointing out the same thing.
But shout “GO CRUZ” if you think that means anything. It isnt covering that up, nor the fact that in one week, Cruz will likely be third in the delegate count.
and we're looking for a leader, (some one that actually has followers, not paid sycophants) ...
Trump brings a boatload of people that will do our nation good, not just sit in a chair and play yes sir/no, sir
quote “Worse, Trump lost votes to Rubio, not something I saw coming at all.”
I saw it coming.
But I thought both Cruz and Trump would lose votes because of the way they were both acting in the final week of the race.
Both turned me off so much I had to give Rubio a 2nd look. And I figured others would do the same.
What gets me is the media and GOPe are now deciding our candidate for us — AGAIN. Another Dole, McCain, Romney etal etal.
I will not vote for Rubio. I’m gray haired and never missed a vote for Prez; I’ve cooperated and voted for their Republicans in Name Only. But I will leave it blank if they force Rubio on us. It does us no good to elect another left wing liberal to further destroy our borders, economy and country.
“1 delegate and a swing in momentum.”
Yeah, and it’s Rubio that is getting all of the accolades. Ted is just a cheap prop to mock Trump today. His “momentum” will have to erase a 20pt lead for Trump and pass Rubio in 2nd in NH, in 7 DAYS.
In a state where he doesn’t have evangelicals to pander to for 52 weeks.
Surprisingly, the news last night had Cruz getting the conservative vote, Rubio getting the "somewhat conservative vote," and Trump winning the "moderates." This might also explain why Cruz shifted his advertising to attacking Rubio for a few days leading up to the caucus.
1.) Polls were grossly wrong. Yesterday Dana Loesch had an extended break down on the polling to explain why the polls had Donald so far ahead. It turns out pollsters were counting on YUGE (I mean super record breaker turnout) first time voters all to vote for TRUMP;
2.) All candidates participated in Iowa. It has been said, rightly so, that Iowa hasn't picked the nominee in several cycles. In past cycles many candidates sat out Iowa not to spend the money and time required to win a caucus state and focus on NH and SC. However, after the GOP losing two elections due to superior ground game, donors were looking to see which organization could put together a ground game and Iowa was the test. This is why money was still flowing into campaigns that were doing poorly in the pools. I suspect that money will stop and the three person race is taking form. Cruz and Rubio proved they have the ground game.
3.) Trump took a bold gamble in Iowa. Focusing on this state was a huge gamble for a guy running an untraditional campaign in a state known for wholesale politics. If he won, no doubt he runs the table. Now we have a real campaign.
4.) GOPe will now focus on Rubio. The supposed Kasich or Christy "surge" in NH have been disproven and Iowa results solidify this fact.
“So, so tired of the “Trump is a conservative” lie.”
I get tired of lies too coming from folks who think they are all knowing and all seeing.
“43% of Iowans identify themselves as Socialists. WTF is wrong with the state of Iowa?”
Iowa barely went for W. in 04.
Every 4 years people obediently rain time and money on these people, and then they go right out and vote for the Democrat in the Fall.
Each time she opens her mouth lately, she sounds more emotional and less logical...like one of the dingbats on The View.
Amen. Trump is both a leader and an effective manager of resources. These two traits are great not just for a political campaign, but for the presidency as well.
43% of Iowans identify themselves as Socialists. WTF is wrong with the state of Iowa?
Iowa has always been liberal Democrat. Tons of college age + Evangelical farmers. And they love government handouts. Ever been through that state?
You don’t need such a detailed ground game in a primary where you can vote all day.
Caucuses are ridiculous and should be ended. A lot of people can’t get off on a 6pm on a Monday night.
Why do you hate the most conservative candidate in the race with such vehemence? What political philosophy do you proscribe to? What brings you to a conservative website?
True indeed. And now that he’s been schlonged without a doubt.
You are wishful thinking to expect Trump to go after Rubio. He will hammer down more on Cruz - you heard it here first. He thinks he can get Rubio out later. Trump will help the GOPe.
Rubio (fantasy f'rinstance) wins the nomination and is the only R on the general ballot ...
and Trump runs a successful WRITE IN CAMPAIGN ?
TWO of us in my school district are on the school board because of successful write in campaigns ... two FReeper types (he works too much to FReep, but he is)
Just like last cycle Santorium takes just enough votes to deny Newt a win and momentum. Deep pockets Romney the establishment candidate squeaks by to get the nomination. Same story different cast.
Trump wasn’t “soundly beaten”. The outcome - he gets 1 less delegate than Cruz.
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