Posted on 01/31/2016 12:04:23 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
The final Des Moines Register poll was just released, showing Donald Trump leading the Republican field in Iowa with 28 percent, Ted Cruz with 23 percent and Marco Rubio with 15 percent. Hillary Clinton was ahead of Bernie Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent, on the Democratic side. The political world - us included - was eagerly awaiting this survey, as Ann Selzer, who has conducted the Register's polls since the 1988 caucuses, has a very good track record. But just how predictive of the final results have Selzer's polls been? History suggests they're a good indicator of what will happen in Monday's Iowa caucuses, though there is room for a candidate or two to surprise.
I've gathered Selzer's final caucus polls for Republicans and Democrats since she started at the Register. For each race, I've calculated the difference between all candidates' polled percentage of support and their final share of the vote.
Selzer's final poll has correctly projected every single winner except for Republican Rick Santorum in 2012.
And the Register poll's successes haven't been limited to blowout races. She caught the late momentum for Democrat John Kerry in 2004 and famously called Barack Obama's victory in 2008.
Even when Selzer's final poll missed the winner in 2012, it still indicated the potential for Santorum to win. The survey was conducted over four days, and in addition to the topline, aggregate numbers, Selzer released day-by-day results. The final day of her last 2012 caucus poll showed Santorum within a percentage point of Mitt Romney. In fact, the average error per candidate of the last day of her final 2012 caucus poll was just 1.9 percentage points.
Indeed, what makes Selzer truly special isn't just that she calls winners but that her error rates are fairly low across all candidates. Her average error per candidate per year has been just 3.3 percentage points. That means that what a candidate receives in her poll is probably going to be pretty close to what he or she gets from voters.
That's not to say the Des Moines Register poll is perfect. It sometimes misses on a candidate by a lot. Selzer's final poll in 1988 missed Republican Pat Robertson's eventual vote share by just more than 10 percentage points. Same thing with Kerry in 2004.
Who might benefit from that type of miss this time around? History suggests there are two types of candidates who tend to outperform their polls. The first is a candidate who does well among Christian conservatives. Selzer's final polls on the Republican side in 1988, 1996 and 2012 all missed the candidate favored by Christian conservatives by at least 8.5 percentage points. That could be good news for Cruz. Secondly, candidates with late momentum, such as Kerry in 2004 and Santorum in 2012, also tend to beat their polls. That could be beneficial to Rubio, who seems to be gaining in some polls.
Could there also be a big error on the Democratic side? It's possible, but Selzer did particularly well in 2000, the last Democratic campaign with only a few candidates running. Fewer candidates means voters have an easier time settling on one candidate and reallocation of support becomes less of an issue.
Of course, we won't know how accurate Selzer's final poll is this year until Monday or the day after. It's worth remembering, however, that even the best pollsters - and Selzer is one of the best - aren't perfect.
Santorum finished 34 votes ahead of Romney in new Iowa tally; votes from 8 precincts missing
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libbylu did post her own opus. Just sating. oh and it wasn’t all that good as opus’s go.
"Really? Does their combined support even add up to 1% now?"
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It's more like 3.6% to 4.0%.
You’re welcome.
I like his rhetoric about immigration, but don't really see him doing anything meaningful about it. However most (not all BTW) of his supporters are way over the top. They give new meaning to the term "True Believer" and do not tolerate the opinions of others.
“Ted Cruz’s supporters are just more polite and tend to “sit back†when swarmed by commenters ...”
Bbwwwaaaahhhhhaaaaaa!
Yeah, right!
Well, that’s good for Cruz.
Trump can afford to lose Iowa. Cruz cannot. If Cruz doesn’t win tomorrow, it may be a mortal blow to his campaign.
It would be best to win but it isn’t a fatal blow if it’s close.
What have I done to be kicked off of FR?
And you know I disagree with everything you post.
I do believe you are either a paid anti-Trump poster or somewhat mildly deranged in your irrational hatred of Trump, but I do not think you have done anything to break FR posting rules.
Just my opinion.
“**Note to self... Women are unpredictable and scary.”
I thought you were one.... Lesbian and all.
You are mistaken... not concerned about it. Just my objective view at the time based on available facts. Your “sorry” to me has no relevance and doesnt make any sense. Sounds like you are making a wrong assumption.
Thanks, I had forgotten about that. Hopefully there won’t be any confusion this time.
I don't work for anyone. And for my sanity, I think I'm fairly normal.
BTW, I don't "hate" Trump, I just know enough about him to know that I don't want him running the country.
Anyway, no matter what your motives, you are not breaking any rules here and are mostly well-spoken, though you have your little break-downs every once in a while too.
That is my opinion. I of course have no power here. I just want to stick up for you in my own way, with qualifications as stated.
But 39 and rain at caucus time in Des Moines. Probably not as big a factor as the blizzard prediction was yesterday. This storm passed here yesterday morning. It has a lot of moisture in it and left me a three inch present on the deck. Unusual since I live in the shadow of the Sierras.
Nothing wrong with backing your candidate.
Spending all your time racing around posing infantile snarks and bile laced tirades at everyone else for picking the “wrong” candidate is what gets them Zotted.
Some on Team Cruz decided their best tactic was to go full time ad homine at anyone who did not worship their candidate.
Spending all their time screaming insults at people they want to vote FOR a candidate is just stupid politics.
Man up will ya.
“Trump likely will serve only one term...he needs to pick a good VP”
Yes, and Cruz at one time might have been that pick, but He’s probably burned his bridge to the job by his attacks on Trump. Then again, Trump is a realist, s maybe there will be a place for Cruz afrer the dust settles.
“We could get Trump, a candidate most GOPers DO NOT WANT”
Jedi your “preference” for Cruz is showing, but nothing else!
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