Posted on 01/30/2016 6:08:09 AM PST by dangus
Polls showing Trump winning Iowa are based on predictions of such a massive surge of first-time caucusers coming down to support Trump, that their likely-voter models show demographics like a general election... but this news story shows that's NOT happening. There is nothing like the surge of voters like Obama brought in 2008. In fact, it's trailing even the number of new voters in 2012. In that year, the Democrats didn't even hold a caucus, and the Republican caucus was won by Rick Santorum, who was polling in the low single digits just a few days before the caucuses.
[Mind you, new-voter registrations are only a proxy for predicting new-voter enthusiasm; Trump or Sanders could theoretically win by simply activating existing voters, or last-minute registrations.]
Not my opinion, it's fact. Nate Silver said as much in the New York Times. So why are the Times, New York Magazine and all those other New York values-makers pretending otherwise? Because they want it to be true.
Perhaps you've also seen all the talk that Trump "won" the debate by not showing up.
That's again very interesting, because his OWN SUPPORTERS thought skipping was a bad idea. They told him 56-44 in his own Twitter poll NOT to skip it.
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/donald-trump-gop-debate-fox-news-twitter/2016/01/26/id/711070/
Maybe you've heard about how people were staying away from the Fox debate in droves? Yeah... didn't happen. Yes, they were the second lowest, but that still means that the ratings were better than a debate that Trump did attended. What happened was it reversed a trend of falling debate audiences.
The mainstream media's excuse? The gap in household availability only accounts for a portion of the Fox debate's better ratings.
One excuse is that Fox News is easier to find than Fox Business news. Pretty lame. On my cable dial, they're next to each other. On a lot of other systems I've seen, you have to flip past CNN and MSNBC to find Fox Business.
Then again, apparently a lot of Trump supporters couldn't find CNN or MSNBC. His counter-rally got only 2.75 million viewers, a tiny fraction of the 12.5 million viewers the debate got. Not even a particularly great night for the lefty networks.
It has nothing to do with the event. It’s about 2 from the kiddies table trying to act like they’re important enough to be in the big leagues. The only way they can get any attention is by trashing Cruz. They bring nothing to the table and aren’t even important enough to be considered as VP candidates.
Maybe you’ve heard about how people were staying away from the Fox debate in droves? Yeah... didn’t happen. Yes, they were the second lowest, but that still means that the ratings were better than a debate that Trump did attended.
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LOL, and the MAIN reason it scored even as high as it did is because most viewers tuned in to see what the other candidates had to say about Trump.
The social media was OVERWHELMINGLY concerned with and all about Trump and his coverage by ALL media sources remains over the top.
See, Dangus, even when Trump ISN’T on the stage the coverage is all about him....got that?
How many were watching on CSPAM, OAN, local Iowa TV stations, and internet streaming? Those are not figured into the 2.75 number.
It's about Santorum and Huck acknowledging with grace and self-deprecating humor that they weren't at the main event. It's about being in solidarity with an important cause. It's about rising above the political bickering.
How come you guys have plenty negative to say about most of the others, but your never on threads where the real bottom feeders of the campaign, Jeb and Kasich, are being discussed. Isn't it more important to get them out of the race than pick on Huck and Santorum, who are pretty likeable and not owned by the elite?
Kasich and Jeb aren’t out there dissing Cruz but Huckleberry and Santorum are. None of them are a threat to take away votes but they are a threat to give ammo to the dems just like your guy Trump is.
You know the Cruzbots are desperate when they keep pounding this narrative that Trump is the FOX and establishment guy. Rafael’s poll numbers are dropping like a rock and now his campaign is turning all advertising from Trump to Rubio to keep Rubio from overtaking him in Iowa. Trump has knocked him out.
Huh?
I watched his event on OANN and cspan at different points. CSPAN was used because the John Wayne vet was walking out of frame frequently on OAN.
Lol, the biggest surge will come from registered voters who’ve been sitting it out for varying numbers of years due to disgust with both parties.
Have you noticed that these are the three that most confidently aver that Trump will not be nominated?
Yeah, I know that's pure conspiracty theory stuff. But does anyone doubt that the party elite will steal the nomination unless it's impossible?
Ayup. Just being empirical. I’ve seen a lot of surface criticism by people who will evaluate Trump on any and every criterion except the one he asked to be evaluated on. He is on a quest to create both a body of support AND an agenda for “Making America great again.” If you want to cat call and not be a constructive part of that — if you want to see the empty part of the glass and not try to add more water — that’s your choice but please don’t complain about the consequences.
The party elite want to... they view it as their manifest destiny to do so.
Problem is... this here upstart Donald also has such a view. I saw him on TV recently and he looked like the optimist’s optimist. He was absolutely enchanted with the idea of where America could go.
Blame Trump for myriad things, for fumbling the ball, for being crude, for being slow to learn that conservative is the best way to go — but not for failing to be a patriot in the original sense.
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