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Why Cruz, Sanders have an advantage in Iowa
CNN's GANT News ^ | January 24, 2016 | Staff

Posted on 01/24/2016 9:56:04 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

With only a few days until the Iowa caucuses, the political world is buzzing with anticipation for the presidential nomination process to go beyond polls and speeches to actual voting and caucusing.

Paying attention to the difference between these two types of processes is important because caucuses attract a very different set of citizens -- more ideological, more consistent and more partisan participants. We think this difference will matter.

So far, people have focused on Donald Trump's unexpectedly strong showing in the polls and on tensions between "outsider" candidates (like Trump) and more traditional "establishment" candidates. On the Democratic side, the question is how the expected front-runner Hillary Clinton will fare against an insurgent campaign from self-declared democratic socialist Bernie Sanders. Now, the critical question for all of these campaigns is how to get their supporters to show up.

As illustrated in the most recent CNN poll, different assumptions about the set of participants make a big difference. For instance, in the Iowa caucuses, Trump's lead disappears when only considering poll respondents who have previously caucused....

(Excerpt) Read more at gantdaily.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: cruz; iowa; sanders; tedcruz
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
So, I went ahead and checked the caucus of 1-24-16. Looks like only 11 of the 199 votes cast for Donald Trump were by people who got here 2013 or later.

Please feel free to check my work

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3387772/posts?page=251

41 posted on 01/24/2016 10:53:37 PM PST by TaxPayer2000
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Well im one voting for trump. Member since 2003.


42 posted on 01/24/2016 10:54:19 PM PST by rebel25 (If the thief in the night takes 7 seconds to get into my room that is 5 too long for him...)
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To: nopardons

Sorry, where are you getting the 8 state rule?
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-Alloc.phtml

Those are the rules governing delegate allocation at the convention as announced and amended by the RNC. (That’s a great website, by the way, I would recommend bookmarking it.)

Again, my comments about ground game were specific: is Trump organizing precinct captains and securing delegates favorable to him should they become “free agents” at the convention? Of the three states (WA, KY, NH) in which I have intimate knowledge of precinct level operations, Trump has minimal precinct level organization.


43 posted on 01/24/2016 10:54:25 PM PST by brothers4thID ("We've had way too many Republicans whose #1 virtue is "I get along great with Democrats".")
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To: Bobalu

Unlikely? How could Trump pick someone he claims is ineligible?


44 posted on 01/24/2016 10:54:48 PM PST by 5thGenTexan
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To: nopardons

Texas is a good one to start the list with. And a kinda big one, too.


45 posted on 01/24/2016 10:56:48 PM PST by 5thGenTexan
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To: RasterMaster

46 posted on 01/24/2016 10:57:24 PM PST by caww
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To: justlittleoleme
"don't think he wanted it very badly."

I agree with that judgement. I am very concerned when any candidate does want it very badly.

47 posted on 01/24/2016 10:58:16 PM PST by matthew fuller (Americans want to win, after seven years of a faggot muslim surrender monkey that hates America!)
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To: PJBankard

Grudge or not, how does Trump walk back the birther talk? How does he spin picking an ineligible, according to him, running mate?


48 posted on 01/24/2016 10:59:18 PM PST by 5thGenTexan
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To: 5thGenTexan

If you listened to Trump’s comments, he never says that he is ineligible. He said that doubt would loom over him about his eligibility, which is something you can’t have going into the general election.


49 posted on 01/24/2016 11:04:49 PM PST by PJBankard (It is the spirit of the men who leads that gains the victory. - Gen. George Patton)
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To: Bobalu

How can Trump choose Cruz as his VP after questioning his eligibility for president?


50 posted on 01/24/2016 11:10:42 PM PST by Ingtar (Compromise is the enemy of Liberty, or so the recent past has shown.)
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To: 5thGenTexan
As I understand it (from Natelson), the problem for Cruz is that the definition of "natural born citizen" only allows for natural born citizenness to be inherited through the father and not the mother. The reason this centuries-old sexism may still be technically in effect is because, until now, nothing has come up that would cause the matter to be adjudicated and the definition updated to conform with modern thinking. I don't think there would be much opposition nowadays to updating the definition to fix this. One this is done, the problem goes away. If this isn't fixed and Cruz were to be the nominee or the the running mate, the Democrats would be working like busy little beavers to get the Republican ticket nullified.
51 posted on 01/24/2016 11:14:54 PM PST by snarkpup ("I want you for Secretary of Inflation." - Zippy the Pinhead)
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To: Ingtar
How can Trump choose Cruz as his VP after questioning his eligibility for president?

He wants a declaratory judgement from the court to clear up the question.

The democrats would tirelessly attack Cruz in the general election if this is not cleared up once and for all.

Trump/Cruz would be a rich and smart team. It would be a lot of fun to see :-)

The Brains/Bucks tag team.

52 posted on 01/24/2016 11:18:31 PM PST by Bobalu (I told you so!)
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To: PJBankard; Greetings_Puny_Humans; 2ndDivisionVet
"There is nothing wrong with arguing your points but keep to the subject matter and not take aim at each other."

Greetings_Puny_Humans is the junkyard dog here, he needs to be addressed by the pack.

53 posted on 01/24/2016 11:18:44 PM PST by matthew fuller (Americans want to win, after seven years of a faggot muslim surrender monkey that hates America!)
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To: jennychase
John Stossel (Fox News) sponsors a website called ElectionBettingOdds.com.

It uses betting data only from Betfair.com, which uses a candidate “share” system that is more efficient and accurate at calculating the odds than PredictIt.org.

But, Betfair does have flaws, too.

It is located in the UK, and it cannot legally accept wagers from USA based bettors.

I will guess that restriction excludes thousands of highly informed and politically sophisticated American bettors, which means Betfair’s odds may be more accurate, but their bettors may be less knowledgeable.

Stossel’s website does not compute odds for individual state primaries.

It only computes odds - every five minutes - for the final party nominees and the general election winner.

Republican Nominee: Trump 40% - Rubio 30% - Cruz 11%

Democrat Nominee: Clinton 80% - Sanders 17%

General Election Winner: Clinton 51% - Trump 17% - Rubio 13% - Sanders 9%

54 posted on 01/24/2016 11:21:26 PM PST by zeestephen
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Let me give the proper response to this as the FR “Conservatives” would like:

TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP[ TRUMP

Don’t ask me to think

TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP YEAH TRUMP


55 posted on 01/24/2016 11:22:23 PM PST by Calpublican (A.G. Lynch: The intent of this statement is to incite violence against radical Islam)
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To: snarkpup
the definition of "natural born citizen" only allows for natural born citizenness to be inherited through the father and not the mother.

This seems rather ass-backwards!

Back in those early years there was no provable was to ascertain the actual father of a child.

No one EVER remarked to a mother "But are you certain the baby is yours!?" lol :-)

56 posted on 01/24/2016 11:22:48 PM PST by Bobalu (I told you so!)
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To: matthew fuller

That’s a great use of my statement of stop attacking one another, by doing the exact opposite. Immediately after quoting it./s


57 posted on 01/24/2016 11:23:19 PM PST by PJBankard (It is the spirit of the men who leads that gains the victory. - Gen. George Patton)
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To: brothers4thID
Interesting site but doesn't mention the rules regulating the requirements for being nominated besides delegates.

It used to be winning 5 states outright, but after the 2012 debacle, those in charge wanted to make sure and certain, that something like what's happening this year couldn't happen. So they had they had a meeting and changed it to winning 8 states outright.

I have heard it repeatedly on radio and T.V. shows and read about the change in many news articles. It's one of those things that only INSIDERS know and talk about amongst themselves, but someone found out about it and spread the word. I wish that I could be more specific, but I can't. And no, I didn't know about this until I heard/read about it.

I'm NOT making this up....I wish that I were; I think that the whole thing is kinda crazy, what with the delegate count and all.

58 posted on 01/24/2016 11:29:29 PM PST by nopardons
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To: caww

Trump saw it as a threat to his manhood, but he proved that he wasn't even man enough to stand by his statement. Less than 24 hours later he's saying he really meant "nose"... What a wuss!

59 posted on 01/24/2016 11:31:05 PM PST by RasterMaster ("Towering genius disdains a beaten path." - Abraham Lincoln)
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To: snarkpup

I caucused in Iowa in 1992 and 1996.

Anger? Adrenaline? Ideologically extreme?

Never saw it. Never heard it.

The Parties caucus in separate rooms, so I can’t comment on the Democrat Caucus.

I actually can’t recall who won the Democrat Caucus in 1992 - I think Clinton lost.


60 posted on 01/24/2016 11:32:49 PM PST by zeestephen
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