Posted on 01/23/2016 3:00:00 PM PST by Lorianne
World stock market losses are approaching $8 trillion so far this year and investors last week poured the most money into government bond funds in a year, suggesting they fear the global economy could tip into recession, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said on Friday.
The bank's U.S. economists also said on Friday that the likelihood of the world's largest economy entering a recession in the coming year has risen to 20 percent from 15 percent.
While a repeat of the 2008-09 great recession "is a big stretch" and even the one-in-five chance of a normal recession remains low, they cut their 2016 growth forecast to 2.1 percent from 2.5 percent
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
When did we get out of the last recession?
Too many idiots think that the economy is based solely on how well the Stock Market is doing.
Paging Jonathon Cahn.
The 12% drop in price for American Express (AXP) after they reported earnings was not reassuring.
“Too many idiots think that the economy is based solely on how well the Stock Market is doing”.
Yep.
If someone buys stock for $100 and sells it for $10 dollars. How much money is lost in the world? answer: 0$
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product
World GDP: $78.3 trillion
World Net Worth: $1.3 quadrillion
You make a good point. There is a difference between being lost in the stock market, and being lost overall. BUT, if say I had holdings for a stock that was valued at $100 on December 31st, that is NOW valued at $10, I would say that there is a substantial difference in the total value of wealth in the world.
Stock markets will be moving up Monday (Jan 25, 2016). Lots of SPY call options were purchased by Big Money on Friday.
Lots of USO put options were also Sold by Big Money on Friday, which suggests that they are calling $30 the bottom for oil.
Plus, U.S. GDP is coming out at the end of this month for Q4 2015 (probably 1.5% to 2.1%). Any # above 1.5% will rally the Markets, Big Time (because $5 Trillion in the UK, USA, Mexico, and Canada is sitting on the sidelines uninvested at the moment).
You can kvetch about the economy all of your life, but the Markets will roll right over you if you aren’t watching what moves them (and kvetching about Wall Street “conspiracies” against the little guys is just loser talk).
But $100 trillion gained from stock market bubble from 2009 through 2015 does not count?
Not quite true. When the stock drops from $100 to $10,
the capital value of that stock drops by $90 x number of shares outstanding. While it is true that only a small fraction of outstanding shares get traded, the trading price DOES AFFECT market capitalization, and that paper loss affects brains of consumers.
Just wondering.. I wonder if those lost trillions of “dollars” can be thought of as just “dollars” that the Fed provided Wall Street. They were never really real.
“U.S. recession chances rising”
We’ve been in a recession since 2008
The last recession ended when we sank into Great Depression II, roughly about 2009. The TARP bailout disguised the real situation, but we were definitely on a downward spiral.
This current situation is as bad in real terms as it was in 1938. The Great Depression I had actually started BEFORE the 1929 stock market crash, but that finally drove home the near-stall in international trade that had preceded the reaction in the stock markets. People often think that 1933, the first year of the FDR administration, as being an “awful” year, but things were being “fixed”. The result of all the “fixes”? The Depression was MUCH worse in 1938, and we did not begin to recover until the war production began to crank up and we started sending war material to England in 1940, when England was already in desperate straits and fighting for their very existence. England was shipping TONS of silver bullion to the US to pay for our production of the basic war materials, as our industrial might was vastly greater than England’s, just waiting to be given direction.
Ok,I’ll give you that brains get smaller. But someone out there is happy and wealthy. We call them short traders.
I don’t know where Jamie McGeever has been but from where my blue collered, red necked and white socked butt is we’ve been in a recession since 2006 and creeping into a depression.
In other words: we’ve been played.
Used, and abused.
Situation normal, all f’ked up.
Enough!
Appreciate your comments, always informative.
I don’t think the economy ever effectively recovered since Bush was in office. No, I’m not blaming Bush for the last 7 years. That blame rests solely on the person that should have fixed it, but did everything in his power to destroy all aspects of the country, not just the economy.
Trump or Cruz in power should fix much of what has been destroyed, including the economy. I have faith.
But we are so screwed if Bernie or Hitlery get in. Might as well just drop our shorts to the ground, bend over, and brace for agonizing relentless pain.
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