No, Cruz is definitely going to win Iowa.
LOL.
Posted on 01/07/2016 6:38:59 PM PST by springwater13
"I look at Trump, and his ceiling is so much higher than everyone else's," says Craig Robinson, a former political director of the Iowa GOP who now runs the Iowa Republican blog. "His campaign has gone out and had people self-identify that they're interested in him, and they've captured that data."
Robinson's assessment runs counter to one of the dearest-held assumptions of the political punditocracy. Many commentators believe Trump has a high floor but a low ceiling - that is, his supporters really, really support him and are unlikely to go anywhere else, but he doesn't have much room to grow, because he already has the loyalty of Republicans who are inclined to like him.
To Robinson, that's not the way it looks in Iowa. Start with the numbers.
In 2000, George W. Bush won the caucuses with 35,231 votes. In 2008, Mike Huckabee won with 40,954. In 2012, Rick Santorum won with 29,839.
"Ted Cruz is swimming in a pond where the capacity is about 30,000 votes," says Robinson. "I look at Trump and think that Trump is at that 30,000 mark now, and has the ability to blow past it, if they do a good job of turning their people out."
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
Incoming . . .
The real story of Iowa will not be the finish order, but the turnout. Normally very few people bother with primaries. If Trump demonstrates that he is energizing people sufficiently to vote in caucuses in January, it suggests that turnout come November could be historic. That changes a lot of dynamics.
Polls are never exactly right. It could swing any which way for any candidate, within reason. Our OCD culture just cannot wait, thus the daily polls that really mean nothing but an opportunity for manipulation and suppression of the hopes of ones enemies.
No, Cruz is definitely going to win Iowa.
LOL.
Robinson is another trump worshipper. He hates the competition. Not worth a detailed response.
Praying!.......so want him to win in Iowa
- - - -
"CRUZ CAN NO LONGER SWIM IN TRUMP'S SHADOW
Sen. Ted Cruz's days as a pilot fish swimming in the shadow of bull shark, Donald Trump have come to an end. Until now, Cruz has been able to quietly fund raise and accrue support without much scrutiny. But his rise in the polls and increased attacks, on and by, opponents has pushed him and his record into the spotlight. He has been characterized as weak on national security, flip-flopping on immigration, and now the folks of Iowa are trying to stop him from being the first candidate to potentially win the state without supporting ethanol subsidies.
All this while he defends his eligibility to run for the high office amid concerns he may not be a citizen of the United States." -snip-
What possible “detailed” response can you give? There’s literally nothing you can claim until caucus day.
Bottom line with the expectations for Cruz now, if he loses IA he’s done. If Trump loses it’s a bump in the road.
Iowa will send 27 delegates to the national convention.
Delegates will be awarded proportionally.
So, what will the breakdown in Iowa be?
Will it be 14 for Cruz and 13 for Trump?
How will the media report that news?
Bottom line is ... the results from Iowa are irrelevant.
A week later will be New Hampshire with 23 delegates.
Same deal.
There was an entire essay written by this Robinson putz posted here. It was so awful, it wasn’t worth a detailed rebuttal.
No, he’s not...He worships Huckabee- and so, he hates Cruz with a passion. He went so far as to call King and Vander Platts “disloyal, because by endorsing Cruz, they “betrayed” years of friendship to Huckabee.
He supposed to be an Iowa expert, but his opinion is undermined by virtue of his bias.
Read something that said the importance of Iowa and NH is traditionally that without a good showing there the money will dry up and voila...end of campaign. But of course this isn’t an issue for Trump.
However, he needs the delegates to overwhelm if GOPe. It could be tricky at the convention. Those GOPe bastards have no shame.
The Capacity is not 30,000 voters. The Evangelical vote alone in IA is close to 50,000+ voters.
Mike Huckabee got 40,000+ votes but did not win all of the Evanglical vote. A good number went to Fred Thompson and Ron Paul, with a smaller number in the Romney and McCain totals.
The same thing happened in 2012. Santorum was a last minute choice as a last ditch effort to stop Romney, but it was by no means unanimous. The Paulbots had a large chunk of Evanglicals, as did Michele Backmann, Rick Perry and to an extent Newt and Romney.
30,000 isn’t a ceiling for Cruz at all. He is kicking Rand’s rear in the Libertarian Category and also winning Defense Conservatives that were behind Gingrich last time. Cruz has AT LEAST Huckabee’s total. Cruz is going to be close or exceeding 50,000 Caucus votes on 1 Feb.
Meanwhile, the Trump campaign is panicking. They have targeted 30,000 all along and they appear to be under that at the moment.
Projected Caucus Turnout right now is only 128,000 votes. Cruz would win 39% and the best Trump can do is 24%, but right now they are closer to 20% according to ground reports.
Bottom line: Cruz appears in position to win IA by double digits.
Oh, okay, just as stupid.
You don’t know what you are talking about. Trump campaign publicly in a NY Times article put their target at 48,000 and of course this is low balling for the press. Nothing Cruz can do if Trump supporters caucus. He will be swarmed.
I’m in Nebraska, but lots of Iowa employees.
Almost all are for Trump....
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