Posted on 12/23/2015 7:10:48 AM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
Donald Trump has been a front-runner in the 2016 presidential election since he entered the race over the summer, and now new analysis of the polls has suggested that Americans may actually be understating their support for him.
In an analysis conducted by Morning Consult, it was discovered that Trump has done better in online polls than in surveys conducted over the phone.
The study noted: "Trump receives about 5 percentage points more support among registered Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents online compared with live telephone interviews."
The firm's polling director, Kyle Dropp, spoke with the Los Angeles Times and explained why Trump's support may appear higher in online polls and why the online polls are more accurate.
Dropp noted that many of Trump's supporters, especially those with college educations, are "less likely to say that they support him when they're talking to a live human" than when they are in the "anonymous environment."
In fact, the study showed that adults answering questions about Trump on the phone were more likely to hide their opinion from the surveyor because of "a social desirability bias in which respondents answer questions in a manner they believe will be viewed favorably by others."
On the other hand, blue-collar Republicans answered the same regardless of the method.
The study was widespread. Some 2,397 potential Republican voters were polled in early December, either by telephone survey, an online survey or by an interactive dialing technique.
Dropp said that the results of the experiment were clear.
"Voters are about 6 points more likely to support Trump when they're taking the poll online then when they're talking to a live interviewer," he said.
While Trump continues to lead in the Republican Party primary, voters may be surprised by Trump's overwhelming number of supporters.
(Excerpt) Read more at conservativetribune.com ...
Nice.
Thanks!
Not so sure about that. He says the kind of things we say to our friends and family and wish we could say in public.
Joe Biden, now THERE’S a crazy uncle kind of guy...!
This is more commonly referred to as “the Bradley effect”
“Make America Great Again” resonates, as does “Make America Safe Again”. Furthermore, in a state by state analysis, he may be the best chance against Hillary and with Phyllis and the Eagle Forum in his corner, he may do better than one might expect.
Easy now. Not a landslide unless he gets all 57 states.........
:)
I am in Iowa and inundated with robocalls. We probably get 5-10 robo calls each day from “survey” companies. Is it just me or are most of these campaigns actually doing the calls trying to identify their voters and then get them to the caucus meeting.
The reality is that nationwide polls are MEANINGLESS at this stage. The ONLY polls that matter are Iowa and New Hampshire because the momentum can change instantly based on who wins those early states.
At this point in 2004, Howard Dean was the clear front runner for the Democrats and Dick Gephardt was solidly in second place. John Kerry's campaign seemed doomed and nobody even paid any attention to John Edwards. Kerry and Edwards both surged in the week before the Iowa Caucus and Dean and Gephardt were done.
Almost every nominee in recent history has won either Iowa or New Hampshire or both. Money evaporates for candidates who don't at least finish in the top two or three in those states. Keep in mind that Donald Trump has said something to the effect that some of his best investments were the ones he didn't make; I don't think he will continue to spend money if he starts to lose momentum.
Now, none of this is to say that I don't think Trump will be the nominee, but it is to say that nationwide polls (especially online polls) don't mean much at this stage of the game.
We get pollsters calling all the time, and refuse to participate saying we will express our opinion at the ballot box.
We also request to be taken off their list, which of course only results in more calls.
I think many don’t want the hassle of phone interviewers and instead, like us, will gladly participate in an online poll. At least the emails can be filtered from junk to trash then
I may be wrong, but I thought that these were mostly polling calls, because not a single one of them has ever left a message.
Me too!
LOL
Exactly right.
The problem is that the so-called “silent majority” has historically been so “silent” that they don't even vote.
Trump is no underdog (at this point) I see no reason for his supporters to employ this silly tactic. Enjoy what you've got; isn't it enough without feeling you must resort to the tactics of the desperate?
And this is hardly “breaking” news. (At least you didn’t put it in the Breaking News category)
She has a lot of her life invested in her job. Keeping it is important to her. She voted for Kasich and then he immediately tried to shlong her so she’s wary now but she likes Trump because she, like me, wants America to be great again. I think his tax plan might have helped too.
Mass, Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut, Illinois to name a few more...
I copied it exactly from the article. No one else seems to have a problem with it. It isn’t killing anyone.
So in the privacy of the voting booth the choosing may even
be higher for those that won’t verbalize their choice.
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