Posted on 12/14/2015 11:13:04 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Everyone today is freaking out about a poll from Monmouth University that purports to show Donald Trump getting 41% of the Republican vote. There's a lot to note about exactly how garbage this poll is. It is so bad that Monmouth's own polling director is basically disavowing it. If you are interested in a relatively robust writeup of the methodological problems with the poll itself, which are primarily driven by the insane method Monmouth used to select their sample, you can check this Politico writeup here.
That having been said, we pretend that any of the other polls are more accurate at our own peril. During the course of this race it is has been a regular phenomenon that polls taken within 2-3 days of each other, purporting to evaluate the exact same voting sample, measure Trump's level of support in particular wildly outside the margin of error of each other. As an example, this NBC/WSJ poll taken almost the same exact days shows Trump's support at 27 nationally. In the last two weeks, five other national polls have been conducted, many with overlapping days, showing Trump's support ranging from 24-36%.
Nor is this a recent phenomenon. In late November, ABC/WaPo and Bloomberg conducted polls on the same days - one showed Trump at 32%, the other at 24%.
Likewise, many have completely forgotten the debacles of 2012 (which oversampled Republicans) and 2014 (which drastically oversampled Democrats). Many races that were polled very extensively turned out to be flat out wrong. Sen. Mitch McConnell's contest against Alison Grimes in Kentucky was one of the most thorougly polled races in the country, and McConnell was supposed to be involved in a nailbiter, but he ended up winning by about 20 points. Likewise, Jim Gilmore was supposed to lose in Virginia by about 20 points, but he almost won.
The simple reality is that the electorate is rapidly fluctuating from one contest to the next. There's a reason that Gallup, one of the oldest and most respected pollsters in the country, has decided to stop polling the Presidential race altogether - too much chance for embarrassment due to the results turning out drastically different from what you predicted.
Probably, we can discern a few things from the aggregate polling information that we have. 1) Donald Trump probably has a national lead among people who say they are likely Republican primary voters. How many of those people will actually vote, I have no idea. 2) Sen. Ted Cruz (and Sen. Marco Rubio are probably fighting it out for second, and Cruz has probably opened a small but negligible lead on Rubio in this particular fight. 3) Ben Carson is probably declining pretty rapidly. 4) Everyone else is basically hoping for some sort of sea-shifting event.
Other than that, everyone is basically using the polls as a PR/fundraising tool. And I won't pretend that they aren't fun to discuss and that they can't be useful for analyzing larger trends. But I think the numbers themselves are mostly garbage at this point and should be ignored.
They’re like the weather, we want to believe some forecasts and we don’t want to believe other forecasts, but we always look.
Yes he is. I appreciate you taking the time to look for yourself too.
Thank you.
That I knew. Thus the question.
Yes, AND Monmouth did, as well. Monmouth said Cruz was in the lead in Iowa 12/7.
A just-shy of coherent response. You know what they say about people with no sense of humor...
It’s a crying shame.
Oh, the polls, polls, polls!
What a tale their terror tells
Of Despair!
How they clang, and clash, and roar!
What a horror they outpour
On the bosom of the palpitating air!
Yet the ear it fully knows,
By the twanging
And the clanging,
How the danger ebbs and flows;
Yet the ear distinctly tells,
In the jangling
And the wrangling,
How the danger sinks and swells,
By the sinking or the swelling in the anger of the polls,
Of the polls,
Of the polls, polls, polls, polls,
polls, polls, polls.
In the clamor and the clangor of the polls!
Yep, Trump probably not above 35-36%.
Ok good...
As everyone knows, the only reliable pills are the ones that tell me what I want to hear.
‘After backing Giuliani, Perry, and Walker, I’d like to thank you for not backing Trump. Oops, make that two things. Thank you for working your magic for Cruz.’
Haha! The Jonah of candidate-backers; sinks them all.
Next cycle the candidates will be lined up to pay a certain party to ‘back the other guy.’
Why do we keep printing what that 5 minutes of fame Dick Dickmeson has to say.
He Dissed Trump and didn’t give money back to people who traveled a long way to hear DJ Trump.
Dick you never like Trump, SHUT UP and GTH.
This is the third poll in a week that has Trump in the 40’s.
Morning Consult T 41, C 7
Zogby T 38, C 8
Gravis T 42, C 16
IPSOS T 37, C 11
Monmouth T 41, C 14
You lost me.
Are you drinking?
<<<< “Give me a list of 5 news outlets you like.” >>>>
Give us a list of explanations for your five new attitudes this year.
1. Walker supporter all the way through the skid marks.
2. Seem presently lost, but professorial nevertheless.
3. TRUMP smear merchant, certainly.
4. Demanding = FReepers are to click their heels and salute.
5. Unapologetic about the excesses to the top four.
I know ... let’s hold some elections!!!
This is the third poll in a week that has Trump in the 40’s.
Morning Consult T 41, C 7
Zogby T 38, C 8
Gravis T 42, C 16
IPSOS T 37, C 11
Monmouth T 41, C 14
Not getting enough attention, huh?
Sorry about my prior reply. Still not sure what you were saying, but I see now that my response was in error. Mea culpa.
LOL
If the horseshoe fits...
Don’t overlook democratic polls.
There is a very significant percentage of dem’s that will vote for Trump because they have become disillusioned by thier own party’s so-called choices.
I have yet to make my final choice, although I’m leaning toward Cruz.
Mark my words, and may God save the Republic.
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