Posted on 12/11/2015 11:49:27 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
A new poll finds Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) gaining ground on Donald Trump in the early voting state of New Hampshire.
The Adrian Gray Consulting poll has Trump leading Rubio narrowly among all GOP voters in the state, but with Rubio in first place among the Republicans "very likely" to vote in the primary.
Among all Republican voters, the survey shows Trump with 21 percent support, followed by Rubio with 17 percent, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) with 11 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Ben Carson with 8 percent each.
But when the sample is narrowed to "likely" GOP voters in the state, Trump's lead over Rubio shrinks to just 1 point, at 19 percent to 18 percent.
Among "very likely" Republican primary voters, Rubio leads Trump 19 percent to 17 percent.
The poll's findings differ sharply from other recent surveys showing Trump leading in New Hampshire by double-digit margins.
The Adrian Grary survey was conducted from Dec. 6-8. Trump first called for a ban on Muslims entering the United States on Dec. 7.
The telephone poll included 609 GOP voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
Adrian Gray Consulting is a nonpartisan public affairs research company in Westchester, N.Y.
we miss you W
I post a story about a poll that shows some interesting statistics about Trump, Rubio and Cruz and you have me “shacking up.”
Get a grip.
Of course I do. I always do. What kernel of anti-Trumpism you maybe find won’t stop the inevitable that Trump is going to win.
Conducted interviews by landline and cellular phone:
“These findings are based on the latest CNN/WMUR New Hampshire Primary Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Nine hundred and fifty-four(954) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between November 30 and December 7, 2015. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.2 percent. Included were four hundred and two (402) likely 2016 Republican Primary voters (MSE = +/-4.9) and three hundred and seventy (370) likely 2016 Democratic Primary voters (MSE = +/-5.1). “
Direct link:
https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/primary2016_gopprimary120815.pdf
Rubio, the GOPe p!ss boy?
She’s getting way beyond desperate.
Thank you.
And you are plainly a lady of very fine judgement!
NO wonder Jeb polls at 11 in his poll.
Is his Adrian’s brother Christian Gray ?
Did you read the article I posted?
This means Bush gets less votes....this is OK with me. Rubio wont win but I want Bush OUT!
CNN had it 32 -14 three days ago between Trump and Rubio
This says 21 - 17
Avg= 26.5 - 15.5
Do you or do you not hate Trump?
Let's have a little honesty here.
Rubio? Who comes up with this nonsense?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3371417/posts#20
Well, apparently from this (preferred poll and using your hyperbole) 73% of NH voters “hate” Trump.
Sounds like you would agree with the ACLU guy from Colorado who wants Trump supporters to be shot. You’re in good company.
What an ugly thing to say.
However he simply wasn't willing to put in the time and effort needed to win from there. He didn't do his policy homework, he wasn't willing to set aside a book tour to run for President, and now he's lost almost half his support over the last month.
Bush? Well, what is there to say about him? He was up 17-11 on Chris Christie in January, and up 17-9-9 over Scott Walker and Donald Trump in July. But now he's having trouble breaking out of the margin of error.
Let's see where their support is going:
_____11/4 12/11 Change
Trump 24.6 30.4 +5.8
Cruz 8.8 15.6 +6.8
Rubio 11.0 13.6 +2.6
Carson 24.8 13.6 -11.2
Bush 5.8 3.6 -2.2
Obviously these numbers don't quite sum to zero, meaning the frontrunners have pulled a couple of points from other candidates as well, notably Carly Fiorina. But most of the support here is simply shifting from Carson and Bush, to Trump, Rubio, and Cruz.
However Bush and Carson still have 17.2 points between them. That's a lot of Republican voters who haven't yet felt the need to choose between the top three candidates. On top of that, the remaining candidates have another 10 points between them. Whom everyone prefers as a second choice is very important to watch in the coming weeks."... Ben Carson and Jeb Bush blew it. Here's where their support is going.
**************
Now, look at this section "NH 2016 GOP Presidential Primary -- First and Second Choice Combined" in this poll
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