Posted on 12/10/2015 8:12:29 AM PST by Teacher317
There are reasons why Donald Trump will NOT be the GOP nominee, and they have little to do with the will of the voters.
(Disclaimer: I have been openly for Cruz, and continue to be so, but I have also openly admitted that if Cruz is not the GOP nominee, I will vote for Trump as GOP or 3rd Party... or else I write in Cruz.)
The problem, not surprisingly, is the GOP and the RNC. Back in 2014, they quietly changed the rules for the GOP Primaries. The TEA Party was surging, and the GOPe didn't want actual grassroots voters to mess up their cozy lives with actual support for American interests by the American people. So, in order to make sure that it was close to impossible for a popular TEA Party type to gain the nomination, they simply declared that ALL GOP Primaries held between March 1 and March 14 shall designate their delegate proportionally, and not "winner-takes-all". This starts with Super Tuesday, and includes TWENTY state GOP Primaries and Caucuses (Caucii?).
Now, some states have always been proportional, and some are still winner-take-all, but this new wrinkle does a lot more than you might expect.
Looking just at the numbers for the first 24 GOP Primaries/Caucuses that take place before March 15, we have:
FEB 1, Iowa:
For the first time, starting in 2016, the caucus site voting that was previously a non-binding poll becomes the binding method of selecting delegates. Acting in accordance with a mandate from the Republican National Committee, the delegates are bound to vote for candidates in proportion to the votes cast for each candidate at the caucus sites. (In 2012, Paul got 22 of the Iowa delegates to Mitt's 6)
Monmouth on MON had Cruz ahead at 24%, then Trump 19, Rubio 17, Carson 13... that's 6 delegates for Trump, of 28
Monmouth poll MON DEC 7
Also: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/nov/17/donald-trump-seen-unlikely-to-win-in-iowa-despite-/?page=all
FEB 9, New Hampshire (proportional)
Always vastly different, and allows ANYONE on the ballot, if they pay the $1000 fee. There were 33 in 2016!
Most recent poll, Trump 32%, Rubio 14% (up 5 points), Christie 9%, Bush 8%, Kasich 7%, Cruz 6%, Fiorina and Carson at 5%.. That's 10 of 29 delegates for Trump.
CNN NH poll, DEC 8
FEB 20, South Carolina (winner Take All:
Trump ahead, 24% to Cruz at 16... That's fifty delegates to Trump.
FEB 23 Nevada (Proportional):
Trump at 38 pct, 34 GOP delegates... 14 of 34 for Trump...
Now the next TWENTY states and their all-proportional Primaries begin. Since I don't want to look up 20 more polls, let's just use yesterday's CBS polling numbers (Trump 27, Cruz 17)... Even giving Trump 57 percent of the delegates for the first four states (thanks to the winner-takes-all in big SC), after the next 20 states between MAR 1 and MAR 14, he now has only about 30 percent of the GOP delegates after 24 of the 50 Primaries. This means that he must take about 70 percent of the remaining delegates, AND finish with over fifty percent in at least SEVEN of the last 26 Primaries, or else he is not qualified to be on the GOP ballot, and the GOP and RNC get to dive in and drive the winner to the finish line. Add in unfaithful electors and you can really start to see why Trump may be the top candidate in the most states, and STILL not get the GOP nod... which is why I think he has suddenly started talking again about being treated "fairly" by the GOP or else possibly going 3rd Party.
I remember reading the establishment candidates like Rubio and Bush giving money to carson, Fiorina, Kasich, and Christie. (themselves or the superpacs)
in a footnote a jbush bundler/supporter came out and said he would give money to Hillary vs voting for trump. The MSM concealed his name and spun the story as if his 500000 was a massive mob.
like the fact they gope added another debate in order to give face time to Rubio and jbush?
As I said yesterday, the magic number is 8. Keep that in mind.
The GOP bylaws state that the individual must have won EIGHT states outright in order to be the nominee. This means that the 2,4, 6 & 11 percenters cannot combine their delegates to pledge to someone, unless that person has already won 8 states outright. I believe this set of rules was put in place to help Jeb, in case he faced a revolt of conservatives.
The only person I know who has done the work of detailing all the rule changes and who they were enacted to benefit (Jeb) is Sundance over at Conservative Treehouse.
When you have a ton of time to kill, here are the posts, as of this moment:
I recommend a bottle of Maalox or a stiff drink while reading.
That’s an interesting analysis with a lot of truth in it. Nevertheless, Trump still can pull it off, but it would depend on some events breaking his way.
Trump’s only serious roadblock in this race is Cruz. A great conservative, but completely unelectable for scores of reasons. But a very likely scenario is that Trump and Cruz come out of Iowa, NH and SC as numbers 1 & 2. The establishment candidates who still had enough votes to look respectable out of those states would probably be very few––maybe even just one or two. On top of that, the GOP and the media would be putting incredible pressure for those to get out.
But as the primaries progress and the proportionality states begin to unfold, the establishment candidate would be drawing far less than 50% (probably closer to 25%), while the majority of the vote would be split between Trump and Cruz, and therein lies the problem. If Cruz dropped out (or the voters quit supporting him in large numbers), Trump would dominate and would be unstoppable––even if the establishment was able to get everyone out but their one candidate. Trump would win the majority of GOP votes and could easily secure the needed 1254 (?) delegates. He would probably even do so early.
But since Cruz is unlikely to drop out or even seriously fade, for Trump to win the nomination he would have to win all the winner take all states, and dominate (40%+) in all the proportionality states. Possible? Yes, but when looking at the polls today it doesn’t appear likely.
But he hasn’t spent any money on ads yet, so it’s possible that he could create some devastating anti-Cruz ads that would seriously hurt Cruz’s numbers. He could also cut a deal with Cruz (he is the Art of the Deal guy) whereby Cruz would be promised the VP if he got out. Cruz, who must know how difficult it would be for him to win, would probably be smart enough to take him up on that offer.
Nothing worse than spending 30+million dollars and getting a zero return on your investment. except maybe spending 40+ million dollars and getting a zero return on your investment. The guys funding the establishment candidates are not accustomed to getting zero returns on their investments. This contest has turned into a battle between the donor class and everyone else. They will not give up the power they are accustomed to easily and will likely employ a scorched earth policy in the end. Hillary will be the biggest beneficiary of this policy one way or the other.
:: This is the formula for Constitutional Crisis ::
I would agree EXCEPT
Primary elections are not protected by the Constitution.
Was just thinking the same thing this am. The party of head in the sand, whose senators give their lunch to ried daily, who do not have the wherewithal to stop a single thing zero wants, who have allowed this country to sink into the current pits, THOSE guys are going to go after Trump relentlessly?
They cave when they fight Democrats. They fight tooth and nail when fighting conservatives or anyone who messes up the status quo. Just ask Trump.
I’m of the opinion that Trump could very well win as a third party. Cruz, I don’t know. I can’t see him leaving the party.
Some think a Trump win is the death knell for the GOP. Whether it is or isn’t depends on just how committed the GOP is to their RINO leanings.
Hillary will be the biggest beneficiary of this policy one way or the other.
***************
Heck this University already knows who our next President will be without a vote being cast.
And it isn’t Hillary......
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3370840/posts
As the establishment candidates’ campaign managers see their paychecks going away, they will spend like crazy to justify their cut of all campaign contributions. Then they will call trump a black swan event. Then the managers will look for suckers for 2018 and 2020
Trump’s lawyers are meaner, nastier and more competent that the lawyers for the RNC.
Trump will prevail.
Oh, there’s a silly canard like that for pretty much everything. How does the one go about the Presidential race and how the Redskins do, or the octopus that picks the Superbowl winner? All silly things.
No one wants Trump, but the people.
I will vote for Trump in my state’s primary.
All bets are off imo. Trump has said that he was dissapointed with GOPe candidates McCain and Romney and decided to do the job himself. Business maverick Trump has simply caught the GOPe, the conservative front-end for the corrupt Washington cartel, off guard.
You are so right.
Trump’s not even my guy, but if the GOPe pulled something like this, it would be all out war.
I’m sure Trump has people on this.
I’d say Trump’s biggest concern right now is personal security, and I’m sure he’s on that, too.
What with Hillary skulking in the wings...
I think several of the candidates will quickly start pulling essentially 0% and not get any of the proportionate delegates. Thus allowing Trump to actually pull more delegates. Also, people like to be with the majority. If Trump gets momentum early, he will likely rise substantially in the percentage take.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.