Posted on 12/08/2015 7:10:26 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
If all 68 percent of those "Trump or bust" likely Republican voters are telling the truth about sticking with him if he runs third-party, we're looking at something like 17-20 percent of the total vote next November going to Trump, way more than enough to wreck the GOP's chances. Even if half of them end up deciding to either stay home or vote for the Republican nominee in the interest of beating Hillary, that's still upwards of 10 percent breaking away.
There are X factors, though. One X factor is Trump's dynamism on the stump. If he campaigned aggressively as a third-party nominee, with the sort of frequent big rallies he's doing now, the contrast with Hillary's "low energy" campaign and whatever the GOP nominee is doing might drive extra votes to him. I wouldn't put it past him to get 25 percent, especially if he finally opens his wallet to buy ads and build a national organization.
But that'll be countered by another X factor: It's hard to predict how much free airtime the media will continue to give him during a general election. Letting him on the air to ramble for half an hour about barring Muslims is a perfectly sensible thing for MSNBC to do right now, when the GOP is at each other's throats. The more he talks, the more divided their enemy is.
If he went third-party, they'd have to think more carefully. I assume they'd double down early in the general election campaign by giving him a blank check to talk on the air about whatever he likes, hoping to drive attention away from the GOP nominee and towards Trump in the name of splitting the vote. If he really took off, though, and began to threaten Hillary, they'd cut him off.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
>> Music to Hillary’s ears <<
Not only Hillary. What about Chuck Schumer? Trump’s shenanigans will probably cause so many ‘Pub losses in the U. S. Senate that Schumer will be the next majority leader.
(And hello to four brand new far-left SCOTUS justices, when Scalia, Ginsberg, Kennedy and Breyer finally die or step down.)
If somebody can’t win GOP nomination, how the hell can he win as third party?
That is guaranteed win for RATs,
It will take some time to return to Reagan GOP, one by one by true conservatives.
Third party would screw GOP forever.
And you’re SURE that Trump doesn’t have the same intention?
Even if that 68% applied to the votes Trump would get if he won the nomination and went one-on-one against Hillary, he would have to beat her 60% to 40% in order for him to STILL win if he tried as a third party.
A 60% to 40% Trump vs. Hillary win in a 2-party race, with the 68% applied in a 3-party race, translates to:
40.8% Trump
40% Hillary
19.2% Republican
If Trump would be heading for anything less than a 60-40 margin of victory in a 2-party race, then this poll suggests he would end up being a Perot. And since that margin is extremely unlikely, it’s a near-guarantee that him entering the race as a 3rd party would hand the election to Hillary.
The Republicans are the Democrats. They need to be destroyed.
Only one guy or Hillary wins in 2016.
I have only voted for a conservative in the past and none of my candidates have been elected.
This is a two party system. I'm baffled that anyone supporting Trump thinks this is good news.
If he is to have a chance he must be the GOP nominee.
Of course as, Ive said before if Hillary runs she wins, and I stand by that prediction.
I'd like to be proven wrong but Trump supporters thinking a 3rd party bid and win is in any way viable are delusional IMHO
When did Laura Ingraham say that? I have never heard her come close to endorsing Trump. It sounded like she would not be endorsing anyone. Apparently she has been taking flak since yesterday from her listeners after criticizing Trump’s Muslim immigration proposal on Fox yesterday.
Nominating Cruz would not destroy the GOP and would not make it act like a uni-party. Trump’s not the only option.
I doubt it !
Wow!
“Third party would screw GOP forever.”
The GOP has brought and continues to bring about its own destruction. If they force Trump out, despite his GOP support, they deserve destruction.
That's my view as well. I've held my nose and still gagged on the stench while I voted for Dole/McCain/Romney. No more lesser of two evils (particularly when one evil isn't any lesser than the other one anyway).
Especially if he splits off and goes 3rd party.
Absolute insanity.
I’d vote for Trump if he ran as a turd if he would stay the course on what he has begun, get elected and destroy the establishment.
The real issue we have to confront is getting Donald Trump nominated as the Republican. If he wins, or fairly looses to Ted Cruz, I don’t see him mounting a third party run. But if the GOPe screws him over, we need to consider a Trump 3rd Party candidacy. The GOPe is pulling out all the stops while they are crapping their pants, and it’s amazing the people you used to trust to be “good conservatives” who have proven themselves anything but.
Yeb! - Hillary! - Trump
No brainer
Trump wins
Yeah, he wins something in return, all right. He won’t be handing the presidency to Hillary for nothing.
If the Republicans nominate yet another milquetoast candidate, they get what they deserve.
Nobody is stupid enough to vote for Yeb!, are they?
The ball is in the court of the GOPe. They need to get behind the frontrunner and stop squealing like stuck pigs. They created Trump.
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