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Why Ted Cruz Probably Won’t Win
National Review ^ | 11/25/2015 | HENRY OLSEN

Posted on 11/25/2015 12:15:34 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel

Ted Cruz is now the flavor of the week. He has risen dramatically in polls, both nationally and in key states like Iowa, and now many pundits are saying he's the man to watch. Maybe so, but that vastly underestimates the challenge the very conservative senator from Texas still faces.

Cruz's rise is almost entirely due to his finally getting strong levels of support among the most angry and the most conservative elements of the party. If they were the party, it would be looking pretty good for Ted. But they are not, and therein lies Cruz's challenge. Call it the Cruz Ted bears.

The data are clear that Cruz is consolidating the party's Tea Party and very conservative factions. Three national polls in November break Republicans into three ideological categories, dividing conservatives into "very" and "somewhat" conservatives. They all show Cruz's support comes primarily from that first group. Quinnipiac has him with 27 percent among very conservatives, 7 percent among somewhat conservatives, and 6 percent among moderates. McClatchy/Marist has him at 21-8-5 among those three groups, and Public Policy Polling (PPP) has him at 29-10-1. The ideological right likes him a lot, while the center and the left of the Party are at best lukewarm towards him.

The same trends are evident if you break voters into Tea Party supporters and non-supporters. Quinnipiac has Cruz getting 30 percent of Tea Partiers compared with only 13 percent overall. PPP has him getting 26 percent of Tea Partiers but only 10 percent of those who say they are not.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Texas
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To: JSDude1

People should be angry. Anyone who is not is a fool who does not see what is being done.


61 posted on 11/25/2015 2:15:17 PM PST by inpajamas (Texas Akbar!!!!!!!)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

.....Why people get upset.....

It boils down to self esteem

Some folks get so invested with a candidate that they take any criticism of the candidate at all as a personal insult.


62 posted on 11/25/2015 2:15:28 PM PST by Thibodeaux (this time really is different)
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To: PlateOfShrimp

Too funny!!!

Go Trump, go!


63 posted on 11/25/2015 2:18:58 PM PST by Jane Long (Go Trump, go! Make America Safe Again :)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

...I remember when I used to have heroes........


64 posted on 11/25/2015 2:19:26 PM PST by C. Edmund Wright (WTF? How Karl Rove and the Establishment Lost...Again (Amazon Best Seller))
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To: dp0622
National GOPe Review
65 posted on 11/25/2015 2:41:57 PM PST by TexasCajun (#BlackViolenceMatters)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

Yeah he’s too conservative. We need to nominate someone electable like Romney...


66 posted on 11/25/2015 2:42:48 PM PST by chae (The Lannisters send their regards--Game of Thrones)
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To: Paladin2

Yeah,...he’s loose!


67 posted on 11/25/2015 2:43:47 PM PST by Osage Orange (I'm a bigot...because I don't want Muslims coming to America.....)
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To: PlateOfShrimp

Well...he was superman. Ha!!


68 posted on 11/25/2015 2:45:50 PM PST by Osage Orange (I'm a bigot...because I don't want Muslims coming to America.....)
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To: Vision Thing

And who is your choice?


69 posted on 11/25/2015 2:47:09 PM PST by Osage Orange (I'm a bigot...because I don't want Muslims coming to America.....)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

What I say privately or on the forum, is not something a (supposedly Conservative) writer should say from a publication.

Curz deserves to be heard and let the voters make up their own minds. This nimnal (my word for low brain capacity) writer for National Review should stick to addressing issues if he has one he disagrees with.

Other than that, he should be talking down the other team and not members of our own.


70 posted on 11/25/2015 2:48:21 PM PST by DoughtyOne (I support President Pre-elect Donald J. Trump. Karl Rove, the GOPe, and Leftist's worst nightmare.)
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To: mikey_hates_everything

The RNC....doesn’t tell the citizens how to vote.


71 posted on 11/25/2015 2:48:47 PM PST by Osage Orange (I'm a bigot...because I don't want Muslims coming to America.....)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Ted Cruz is the only candidate who’s successfully argued cases before the Supreme Court. He’s head and shoulders above the other candidates. Can anyone imagine Donald Trump convincing learned judges like Antonin Scalia, John Roberts, and Clarence Thomas to see things his way? A Donald Trump performance before the justices would be laughable, like a ‘’Saturday Night Live’’ skit.

Ted Cruz’s problem so far in running for President is that Republicans are not as wise and knowledgeable about the issues facing America as the Supreme Court is about legal issues. So most Republicans are not yet supporting Ted Cruz’s arguments that he would make the best president.

Yet the more Ted Cruz speaks, the more he enlightens Republicans about the policies needed to turn America around. And the more enlightened Republican voters become, the more they will support Ted Cruz — which is what’s happening now as Ted Cruz’s numbers rise.

It’s like ninth-grade algebra class — every few minutes another student finally get’s it.

By the time the primaries begin, Ted Cruz could well be leading the pack and be on his way to the White House.


72 posted on 11/25/2015 2:50:28 PM PST by Bluestocking
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Trump people jump on National Review every time they post an article that questions Democrat Don.

Irony. Sometimes it’s so ... ironic.


73 posted on 11/25/2015 2:53:14 PM PST by Colonel_Flagg (Revenge is a Daesh best served cold.)
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To: chae

I think Trump will do. :-)


74 posted on 11/25/2015 3:15:20 PM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: Colonel_Flagg

For those who “jump” on NR, good for them.

For me? Go Trump!


75 posted on 11/25/2015 3:56:59 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I LOVE JESUS CHRIST because He first loved me!)
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To: Reagan Disciple

I am just going to answer you this way....we ran the “weak” Republican Establishment RINO, John McCain in 2008 for POTUS, and, he told us what a good man Barack Hussein Obama was, and he ran a terrible campaign and got slaughtered by a known American hater who dealt with Obama with kid gloves.

Ditto for Mitt Romney, another Republican Establishment RINO, in 2012, who proved to b even weaker the MCCain. For goodness sake....Romney let Candy Crowley of CNN mop up the floor with him!!!

Now you go nominate a Rubio or even a tough guy lik Ted Cruz....and...it will be curtains once again for the GOP!!! Trump is the one to save the Republican/Conservative party & make our nation Great, once again!!! End of story!!! And...the Republican primary voters better grab that fact real quick!!!


76 posted on 11/25/2015 4:00:49 PM PST by JLAGRAYFOX ( My only objective is to defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party!!!)
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To: dp0622

Yeah, what this guy is coming to grips with is that Jeb will never be the “flavor of the moment.”


77 posted on 11/25/2015 4:37:08 PM PST by SaraJohnson
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To: JLAGRAYFOX
I agree with everything you wrote except for the Trump/Conservative thing.

You can't be labeled a Conservative or be the hope to save that wing of the party because it's expedient. You can't be labeled Conservative having supported the Clintons, advocated for higher progressive taxes and abortion. You can't be labeled a Conservative when you point to the Canadian helathcare system as successful. You can't be labeled Conservative when you favored legalizing drugs.

Look, I'm no Trump hater. I love what he's doing for the party and the race. He's saying things no one else will but he also has the luxury of doing that because he doesn't want to be tied down to any of his past views.

All that you have said about Cruz was said about Reagan. Elect him and the party is done. Elect him and he'll lose every blue state. Elect him we'll never win the White House again.

I speak only for myself. Cruz is the only true Conservative in the race. When you pit a true Liberal against a true Conservative the Conservative mostly wins.

BTW - everything you complained about Romney and McCain can be tied to Trump. Like I said, being Conservative for right now isn't being.

The primaries will bear it out. If Trump comes out of it ahead, then he'll have my vote.

78 posted on 11/25/2015 5:05:01 PM PST by Reagan Disciple (Peace through Strength)
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To: SaraJohnson

why would ANYONE have a GOOD reason to write why somebody they like WONT WIN?


79 posted on 11/25/2015 5:59:14 PM PST by dp0622 (..)
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To: Osage Orange

I haven’t chosen yet, but as you can tell, I want Cruz to do well, but I just have a very low opinion of America 2015, which seems unable to appreciate him.


80 posted on 11/25/2015 6:42:05 PM PST by Vision Thing
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