Carson’s Stumbles Could Benefit Ted Cruz in Iowa

National Review ^ | November 6, 2015 | Eliana Johnson

[Isara]

There are whispers in Iowa that volunteer supporters of Ted Cruz have been spreading malicious rumors about Dr. Ben Carson, claiming he is a supporter of mandatory vaccinations and conducted research using the tissue of aborted babies. Though they could hurt Carson with the evangelical voters who have flocked to him in Iowa and across the country, none of these attacks have gotten much oxygen on the national stage - certainly not from Cruz himself.

Cruz has the ability and desire to appeal to the Christian conservatives who tend to dominate the Iowa caucuses, but Carson has emerged as the primary obstacle in his way. The retired pediatric neurosurgeon has risen to the top of the polls there - and nationally - over the past few weeks, and he is far and away the most popular Republican candidate in the race. But he has stumbled in recent days, as reporters unearthed inconsistencies and flat-out fabrications in his memoir, and as he puzzled many with statements about the Biblical origins of the Egyptian pyramids. If these struggles take a toll on Carson's poll numbers, it will benefit Cruz most of all.

Until now, Carson has presented a dilemma for Cruz. Attacking any candidate, but particularly a candidate as well liked as Carson - his favorability rating is +13 in Iowa, according to the latest Public Policy Polling numbers - can backfire. Attacks inevitably boost the negative perception of their purveyors, and the sort of evangelical voters Carson has attracted are typically loyal and difficult to peel off. That explains why Cruz's approach to Carson's rise has been to hold him close, hug him tight, smile . . . and count on his campaign imploding down the line. With the emergence of new details calling into question the veracity of key aspects of Carson's inspirational life story, it's beginning to look like a savvy strategy.

If he has been a brutal critic of his Senate colleagues, Cruz has made a point of not attacking his Republican challengers on the campaign trail. When others were denouncing Donald Trump as a madman and a narcissist, Cruz was more sanguine, praising the real-estate mogul for "speaking out boldly and brashly on illegal immigration."

It's not only that in attacking Carson, Cruz would be reversing himself on a boldly stated principle of his campaign. Political strategists also say that it would be dangerous for him to attack Carson, who is wildly popular among the Republican base, which also happens to be Cruz's base. The Iowa talk-radio host Steve Deace, who has endorsed Cruz, says that attacking Carson is risky because his supporters are potential Cruz supporters. He likens it to "dropping [a] bomb on your neighbor."

Though he is a Detroit-bred neurosurgeon who spent most of his professional life in Baltimore, temperamentally, Carson shares a lot in common with Iowa's Republican voters. He is gentle, soft-spoken, and devoutly Christian. "People who attack Carson do so at their own peril," says Jamie Johnson, the longtime Republican national committeeman from Iowa who joined Rick Perry's short-lived campaign earlier this year.

There's also a view gaining currency among Iowa politicos that Cruz doesn't need to win the state, but just to perform well there. "You have to be one of the three tickets punched out of Iowa," says Deace. He argues that a conservative, an outsider, and an establishment candidate will emerge from the caucus intact. "If Cruz finishes second to Carson," he says, "that's a win." Johnson characterizes the caucus as a "three-camp race" among proven public servants, outsiders, and "everybody else the establishment is a little worried about," which leaves room for Carson to emerge victorious among the outsiders and Cruz to win among those who give the establishment the willies.

Carson's greatest weakness is in the realm of policy, where he is a self-proclaimed neophyte, and where Cruz can easily run circles around him. But when?

Carson's greatest weakness is in the realm of policy, where he is a self-proclaimed neophyte, and where Cruz can easily run circles around him. But when? "I think right now it's a very vulnerable place," says Amy Walter, national editor of the Cook Political Report. "Do you wait to make that argument until January? Do you make it in December? Do you make it when 95 percent of Republicans think of him positive [as opposed to] just 85 percent?"

You could see Cruz dipping his toe in the waters after Carson took to CNN to explain why he was troubled by the prospect of a Muslim president.

Cruz did not hesitate to weigh in on the matter, telling a local Iowa outlet, without naming Carson, that, "The Constitution specifies there shall be no religious test for public office and I am [a] constitutionalist."

Carson's deficiencies on matters of policy were on full display when he made the rounds on the Sunday shows trying to explain his proposal to reform Medicare. At one point, he proposed replacing the program with health-savings accounts, subsidized by the government, "starting from the time you are born until the time you die." Then he reneged on the government subsidies, on doing away with Medicare, and on forcing anybody to adopt a savings account.

"I do not believe in imposing things upon people. I believe in presenting things that are so attractive that people will very quickly migrate to them," Carson told Fox News's Chris Wallace. Puzzled, Wallace asked, "So how does the health-savings account work if there's no government subsidy? How do you get the money for your health-savings account. . . . I'm a little confused. If I'm just a regular person, I'm not indigent, and you're gonna give me a health-savings account but you're not going to give me any money, why wouldn't I want Medicare?"

Carson, who has never held political office, may also be starting to wilt after weeks under the spotlight inevitably shined on the front-runner: A Politico report Friday revealed that Carson fabricated a story - relayed in his bestselling autobiography, Gifted Hands - about receiving a full scholarship to West Point. It came on the heels of a controversy over his account in the same book of attempting to stab a friend as an angry teenager. Carson clarified on Thursday that in fact he had attempted to stab a close relative.

If such problems with the truth leave Carson vulnerable to broader criticism on matters of policy, it will be good news for Cruz.

[Peter ODonnell]

I honestly can’t picture Carson being the nominee so a lot of this discussion seems to be a waste of time. It seems to boil down to whether or not the dude was a troubled teen.

I am willing to accept that he was and got help from God. All that proves is that he overcame a negative. That in itself does not “trump” others who never needed to overcome the same negative.

However, in overall terms, this guy’s candidacy has seemed to meander from one non-sequitur to another and I just don’t quite understand what he’s doing in the race, when there are at least two obviously superior candidates.

[conservativejoy]

Thank you for posting the chart. Many people have not seen it and it is extremely important for the comparisons to be made.

[conservativejoy]

There you are! I’ve missed you!

[newfreep]

Rejecting common sense and reality is no way to go through life.

Jeff Sessions > Rand Paul.

How in the heck can you deny this truth?

[SoConPubbie]

Rejecting common sense and reality is no way to go through life.

That's not common-sense. That's your subjective opinion masquerading as common-sense.

[Marcella]

If those volunteer workers for Cruz is doing that in Iowa, and he finds it out, he will try to get that stopped.

I say “try” to get it stopped because volunteer workers are “volunteer” and he can’t be beside every worker when he/she talks to someone.

Carson: I’ve read about and a short while ago listened to CNN talk to Carson’s man and it’s documented Carson was invited to go to West Point so that is true as Carson said in his book. The only thing the media has found about his book, is, he used fictitious names about the boys he tried to hurt when he was a teenager. Carson has spoken to those boys who are men now, and left it up to them if they want to be identified.

Now, his saying the pyramids were used for grain storage may or may not be right. They could have been used for that until a pharaoh died, then the grain removed and the pharaoh placed in there. At any rate, that is his belief and that is not lying as they are trying to do about his book.

[SoConPubbie]

Thanks CJ!

[Isara]

Thank you for posting the chart. Many people have not seen it and it is extremely important for the comparisons to be made.

Thank you very much for your encouragement!

[Marcella]

Post the chart on every Cruz thread as many thousands of people read this site and you won’t get all of them on just one thread.

[newfreep]

Please focus...

Jeff Sessions > Rand Paul

Do you agree with this statement?

[vette6387]

“The ones that get me are the ones who say “ Can’t win in November.” and then gives no reason why without subsequent coaxing.”

I must admit that I’ve been whipsawed by this notion for years. On the one hand, we need to have some semblance of pragmatism when it comes to candidate selection (as evidenced by the really poor Tea Party supported candidates in NV, MO, and MD a couple of years back). At the same time, we’ve been treated to an endless string of “$hit Sandwiches for President” by the GOPe using the same logic (that these people are the only one’s that can win, which ends up also being untrue). But here we are with “outsiders” in the lead for the first time in my lifetime, and all of them have a reasonable degree of credibility. So at least for this election, the “can’t possibly win scenario” needs to be put away, because the polling is beginning to show that most of them can defeat Hitlary (that is if she’s not in jail come election time). The only thing I remain fearful of is that the GOPe will jigger the convention to put in Hebbie or Rubio. If they do that, the GOP is extinct so far as I am concerned.

[Dr. Sivana]

I don’t mind someone making the case that someone cannot win in November, but a quick hit and run without a reason does not contribute to the discussion.

HRC is not Godzilla, she’s more like The Creeping Terror. Any of the Top Four (Trump, Carson, Cruz and Rubio) can certainly beat her, and each one in different ways.

[cripplecreek]

The fewer candidates in the race the more beneficial it is to Cruz. Not having Carson in the race would likely benefit Cruz the most of all out of the top 4 or 5.

[celmak]

Read the second to the last page on the West Point prospectus at

http://www.westpoint.edu/admissions/shared%20documents/wp_prospectus.pdf

IT STATES:

ADMISSIONS DECISIONS

West Point has a rolling admissions policy. Outstanding, qualified, nominated candidates will be offered admission as their records become complete. All admissions files must be complete, to include nominations, by the last workday in February.

Financial and Service Obligation

As a cadet, you are a member of the U.S. Army and receive a full scholarship and an annual salary of more than $10,000 from which you pay for your uniforms, textbooks, a laptop computer, and incidentals. There is no tuition charge, but there is a requirement for an initial deposit. Room, board, and medical and dental care are provided by the United States Government.

[Patton@Bastogne]

Dr. Ben Carson ... QUIT PLAYING EGO GAMES ... and ACT like you're "Presidential Material".



Under "normal" circumstances with "decent" people and a "moral news media" Congress and the Senate would be filled with 535 "Dr. Ben Carson" types.

That would be a good thing.

But that's not reality.



Dr. Ben Carson (once he accomplished his first surgeries) has been "coddled" ... for both his accomplishments and because he's black ... sorry, that's the TRUTH ...

so Dr. Ben Carson has been wandering around saying whatever he wants, whatever comes into his mind, "whatever" ...

and that is NOT how a 2016 U.S. Presidential Campaign is successfully operated.

Period.



This whole "Mannatech, Westpoint and Pyramids" sequence should be a DAMNED wake-up call for what I suspect is an arrogant (I'm the smartest guy in the room) Dr. Ben Carson.

Being U.S. President is NOT about a person's ego ...

Rather, it's like being a U.S. Marine Sniper at Falujia ... where EVERY shot MUST be a "kill" ...

or your buddies DIE.


Dr. Ben Carson ... QUIT PLAYING EGO GAMES ... and ACT like you're "Presidential Material".




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