I’d say you might be right but that would be before the Baltimore Fiasco. Sands are shifting. A Republican Governor just elected? How did that happen?
Yes, the GOP narrowly won the Governorship as it did in 2002. Main reasons, O’Malley the outgoing rat Governor was awful and his Black LT. Governor was the rat nominee, he scared away moderate White democrats. And not being a POTUS year, dem turnout was a lower.
Unfortunately, this local election result has precious little to do with the POTUS election. Bush sure didn’t win it in 2004 (or MA despite Romney being Governor there). Just like Kerry sure as hell didn’t win Wyoming even though they elected a dem Governor in 2002. And Alaska (elected independent/dem endorsed Governor in 2014) is not gonna be voting for Hillary
A (narrow) GOP win is certainly not impossible but it would mean a nationwide landslide with the nominee getting significantly more than 52% nationwide. If Maryland goes Republican few states are likely to go dem.
HW Bush won the state and a huge electoral college majority on only 53% nationally in 1988, but that was a long time ago, states are more polarized now. I can’t see Maryland being only a couple points more dem that the country at large, Romney did 11 points worse than he did nationally, it actually swung slightly towards Obama thanks to even higher Black turnout than 2008. Low Black turnout/doing better than usual with the Black vote is essential to a GOP win in the state.