Posted on 09/23/2015 5:15:19 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Scott Walker’s exit from the White House race is disrupting the GOP contest, and many observers believe Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) will be the biggest beneficiary.
Rubio and Walker were seen at the outset of the race as the candidates with the best shot at winning over the GOP’s conservative grassroots and then running strong in the general election.
But with the Wisconsin governor now out of the mix, suddenly a new group of supporters — and big-money donors — are up for grabs.
Rubio had already been showing signs of new strength in the wake of the second GOP debate last week, with a poll from CNN/ORC putting him at 11 percent support nationally — good enough for fourth place and a big improvement over the 3 percent he had registered in the same poll just two weeks before.
“Rubio is not putting himself front and center but he is ensuring that at each Republican debate he is well noticed as competent and well-studied,” said GOP consultant Ron Bonjean. “He is showing consistency with those performances.”
Another Republican strategist, David Payne, suggested that Rubio’s presence and demeanor make him primed to take advantage of Walker’s sudden departure.
“I think the folks who were supporting, or were considering supporting [Walker], will be looking for someone with poise and polish,” Payne said. “Marco Rubio has a lot of that poise and stylistic excellence, and is starting to capitalize on this moment.”
Still, the impact of Walker’s absence is hard to predict. The battle for the support of establishment Republicans, in particular, seems fluid.
Rubio’s polling bump comes at a time when former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the erstwhile frontrunner, appears stuck in neutral.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich, another establishment contender, is performing reasonably strongly in New Hampshire but is mired in low single digits nationwide.
And while New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was widely seen as having had a good night in the debate, it remains an open question whether his campaign can get out of the doldrums.
Any one of those candidates is also confronted with the reality that they need to overtake the trio of “outsiders” in the race: Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, none of whom has ever held elected office. Those three together command the support of 53 percent of GOP primary voters, according to the CNN/ORC poll.
Walker drew less than 1 percent support in that same poll, a finding that might well have helped push him from the race. That raises the question of how much — or how little — his departure will matter.
“When you are an asterisk in the polls that is not exactly a surge that is going to move to some other candidate,” said Tobe Berkovitz, a Boston University professor who specializes in political communications.
But the effect of the Wisconsin governor’s decision could depend on where his donors, staff and activists go. The campaigns of Bush, Rubio and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas all announced within 24 hours that some Walker supporters had come over to their camps.
Insiders suggest that the importance of organizational strength is often overlooked.
“The clear and present opportunity is with organizational folks, the folks who are precinct captains, chairman of relevant committees, donors and the like,” said Michael Steele, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee.
“A lot of people lose sight of what a presidential contest is all about,” Steele added. “It’s not about being the most ‘outside,’ it’s about organization. [There are] all these bright shining objects, whether it’s Donald Trump or Ben Carson, but meanwhile the Bush campaign, the Kasich campaign have been building up a network because they know this field is going to be whittled.”
Steele argued that Bush’s campaign machine makes him a formidable presence, whose chances are if anything understated because of media coverage of his stumbles.
Others suggested that Bush’s last name and his status as the early favorite have put a target on his back.
“If you want to say Donald Trump is held to the lowest standard, Bush is held to the highest standard,” Berkovitz said.
Even if that is so, however, many Republicans are underwhelmed by the former Florida governor’s performance to date.
“In the two debates that have occurred already, we’ve observed him showing stature and stability but not a lot of enthusiasm and action,” Payne said. “There is just sort of a lack of action.”
Many members of the GOP establishment are worried. The outsiders remain strong, they note, and there is no clear mainstream figure who appears ready to slay them.
“Every [establishment] candidate has assets but also liabilities,” said one such strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly.
“Rubio has been outstanding with his public speaking but lacks experience. Jeb has got mixed reviews. Kasich is more on the liberal end of the Republican spectrum and he runs the danger of becoming the Jon Huntsman of the pack.
“There is no silver bullet here.”
I have preferences.
In the present field of 15, Rubio comes in fourth in my preferences. Rubio and Huckabee lose points for an inconsistent position on immigration. So did Walker, but his solid accomplishments made up for it.
In the present field of 15, only four are worse than Romney (Kasich, Christie, Pataki and Bush), so in general I am pleased with who we can choose from this cycle.
IMHO, Cruz is a statesman and a leader.
Anti information voters are the ones who simply refuse to accept that Trump won’t trash the Iran Nuke deal, Supports Obama’s opening of Cuba, supports renewable fuel mandate, ethanol subsidies, thinks Obamacare isn’t socialist enough......
Yeah, but adding 0% to 5% is still just 5%.
Were you not paying attention when he conspired against the citizens with Durbi, Schumer and the rest of the Gang of Eight?
He is an amnesty pimp, nothing else to consider.
Rubberio showed us how flexible he is when he schemed with Schumer against the citizens.
Everyone knows Cincinnatus' wife's name was Racilia.
“I heard the Brett Bair interviw of Rubio last night, and Rubio was terrific. I still have questions about him, however, but what I saw last night was pretty good.”
I saw the interview too, and he speaks well, is polished and definitely knows what he’s talking about with foreign policy. But when Bair asked him about defunding P.P., he said we definitely should, but then said something to the effect that it was too late to do anything about because “our leadership did not lay the groundwork for this fight early on, so now we will be the ones blamed for a shutdown” — not an exact quote, but words to that effect. That tells you all you need to know about his willingness to stand up to the elites in both parties and fight for something he truly believes in. He had just got done saying how defunding P.P. was hugely important because it was a “human rights” issue, but then said it was too late to do anything about it this year (even though the shutdown fight hasn’t really even started yet) and we would have to wait until we have a new POTUS.
And referring to everyone who doesn't support your candidate as a "low information voter" is ineffective and indicative of a weak mind.
Walker is the only gov who has done that. That SHOWS me more than any boasts made by Trump or the repeated, anti-Walker Democrat talking points, ever will.
“You and Ed Schultz [and Richard Trumka] spew the same anti-Walker sentiments.”
Not even close.
I “spewed” nothing, just recounted his much publicized back and forth regarding immigration. Am I allowed to merely state a fact?
I don’t have anti-Walker sentiments much at all, nor pro-Walker sentiments. He was never in the running after he announced he was in the running.
Welcome back, CW. As a Patrick Buchanan, Alan Keyes, Rick Santorum supporter, I understand the pain of tilting at windmills and having the windmills win. But it’s better to aim for the stars and hit a stump than to aim for a stump and hit the ground.
FWIW, I heard the Brett Bair interviw of Rubio last night, and Rubio was terrific.
His answers were also well scripted an delivered in machine gun fashion as if it was off the stump...another politician. A smart one, but still a politician. Color me tainted, but I just don’t trust him or the others any longer. That answer about not having enough votes pretty much did it for me.
I agree. Rubio would be a disaster. He apparently has many skeletons in his closet - the media would drag them all out during the election. His amnesty views are suicidal for this country.
I agree. Rubio would be a disaster. He apparently has many skeletons in his closet - the media would drag them all out during the election. His amnesty views are suicidal for this country.
You have been very fond of invoking Walker’s 2011 action in the past about revoking in-state tuition over so many posts I can’t count.
Yet little is ever said about this except [below] to say he “changed his mind” in 2014 or 2015 about it.
The answer about “some sort of amnesty” was pretty clear here to me.
This “spew” is from Walker’s campaign manager:
“The problems snowballed, all self-inflicted. “The week after the debate, our events fell a little bit flat,” Wiley said. “And so then we roll into the Iowa State Fair, and the ‘birthright citizenship’ [gaffe] came up. And that was another one where the donors were like, ‘What’s going on over there?’”
“There are no amnesty candidates on the Right.”
Can you give me a name?
“I heard the Brett Bair interviw of Rubio last night, and Rubio was terrific. I still have questions about him, however, but what I saw last night was pretty good.”
I saw the interview too, and he speaks well, is polished and definitely knows what he’s talking about with foreign policy. But when Bair asked him about defunding P.P., he said we definitely should, but then said something to the effect that it was too late to do anything about because “our leadership did not lay the groundwork for this fight early on, so now we will be the ones blamed for a shutdown” — not an exact quote, but words to that effect. That tells you all you need to know about his willingness to stand up to the elites in both parties and fight for something he truly believes in. He had just got done saying how defunding P.P. was hugely important because it was a “human rights” issue, but then said it was too late to do anything about it this year (even though the shutdown fight hasn’t really even started yet) and we would have to wait until we have a new POTUS.
Exactly...I just posted something similar. I flipped when I heard that. In other words, give us more, we still don’t have enough and we’re not principled enough to stand up against the Dems in Congress and the President and force a shutdown or a veto. So what if the veto is overridden? At least the took a stand. I see backbone in him...too much politician and calculation on wind direction. Enough.
DON’T see a backbone...correction.
As you know, in GA , Cruz has picked up Walkers’ previous state leaders. And it was quite a catch.
I thought Walker was the most conservative candidate who could win the primary and the election. I was flabbergasted at his disastrous campaign.
He was the candidate that needed to be most aggressively hostile to the heavily unionized national media.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.