Posted on 08/24/2015 1:56:30 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Ben Domenech sent a flutter through conservative Twitter this weekend with this tweet. Ted Cruz, the great tea-party hope, a favorite for the nomination?
I think he’s right.
Likeliest Republican nominee as of today: @tedcruz.
— Ben Domenech (@bdomenech) August 22, 2015
Why does Cruz look like a frontrunner now when he didn’t two months ago? Mainly, I think, because the “electable” candidates have all looked weaker than expected, and not just vis-a-vis Trump. It’s been fully eight months since Jeb Bush announced his exploratory committee and still no one’s excited. He comes off like a less charismatic, more centrist Mitt Romney. Scott Walker can’t seem to give a straight answer to tough immigration questions and he disappeared at the first debate, taking a beating for it in the polls. Increasingly it seems like Tom Coburn’s assessment, that he’s not ready for national primetime, might be right. Marco Rubio’s in a different position from Bush and Walker in that he hasn’t really disappointed — he excelled at the debate and his favorable ratings remain off the charts — but he seems to be everyone’s second choice. Maybe he starts to move as Jeb fans accept that the dream of Bush 3.0 isn’t happening and Walker’s fans accept that the man who laid waste to the left in Wisconsin won’t be the same wrecking ball as president, but it seems like voters might be stuck seeing Rubio as a guy who’ll be perfect four or eight years from now. He looks like he’s 30 years old. Why not make him wait?
So the three “electable” guys in the race seem unelectable while Trump’s candidacy, which started off looking like a stunt, turns increasingly serious. The expected “Bush vs. Not Bush” campaign appears, for the moment, to be a “Trump vs. Not Trump” contest instead. If you’re in the “Not Trump” camp, who’s left realistically except Ted Cruz? His right-wing competition, i.e. Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal, seems to be going nowhere. He’s raised far more money than anyone expected he would, so he’s likely to be competitive deep into next spring at least. He’s well positioned in Iowa, South Carolina, and the “SEC primary” thanks to his evangelical cred. And as the staunchest conservative in the top tier, he’s a natural draw for righties who dislike Trump because they believe (correctly) that he’s a phony conservative.
More importantly, I think the success of Trump’s bareknuckle populist campaign has moved the Overton window of who can plausibly be nominated towards insurgency, which benefits Cruz. I touched on that in this post last week. We might (but probably won’t) reach the point where Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are 1-2 in the race and establishmentarians opposed to both will begin to warm to Cruz simply by dint of the fact that he’s not a loose cannon. Cruz, in other words, may become a sort of compromise candidate whose nomination can heal the party, sort of, after the fire of Trumpmania. At the start of the campaign, before Trump got in, it seemed like Scott Walker was best positioned to please both the establishment and the grassroots, but with populists now flexing their muscle via Trumpmania, a compromise between the two wings may require a pol who’s more ostentatiously populist than Walker is. Simply put, the donors and party brokers who want Jeb might now conclude that nominating the dynast Bush amid this populist wave would break the party — and that their back-up choice, Walker, might himself not have the strength among the grassroots anymore to fully heal the rift. The further the Trumpites and anti-Trumpites pull apart, the more urgent it’ll be to find someone who can pull them back together. Cruz, the brilliant Harvard Law grad who sounds like a preacher on the stump and shut down the government to try to stop ObamaCare, seems like the natural compromise choice. (See now why Cruz has been careful not to antagonize any Trump fans?) In that sense and probably that sense alone, Trumpmania has been excellent for conservatism. By making populism a force in the primary, Trump might end up forcing the wider party to make a concession to populism by accepting the tea party’s guy inside the Beltway as nominee.
Exit question: Is it actually true, as so many commenters claim, that Ted Cruz would benefit the most in the polls if Trump dropped out? If you think, as I’ve argued here, that Trumpmania is more of a populist and anti-illegal-immigration phenomenon than it is an ideological phenomenon, then yeah, Cruz is a natural beneficiary. (Ben Carson would be too.) Lots of Trump voters aren’t very conservative in their politics, though; check the crosstabs of polls taken over the last two months and you’ll find that he does at least as well with self-described moderates as he does with conservatives. Are moderate Trump fans going to swing around to the tea-partier Cruz? If not, where do they go? Or do they just decide to sit out the election?
No.
Thanks for researching that.
What is it with you Cruz people and the fundraising?
Ask Majority Leader Cantor how much he raised...oh wait...
Forty years on the Supreme Court would be a lot better.
The governor of the sovereign state of New Jersey is a slob, an idiot, and a complete and total douchebag.
I don’t see him walking away either. He seems pretty darn serious at this point.
I am all for trebuchets on the southern border too. Right beyond our side of the great wall.
You cross the wall, we send you back, hardcore. WEEEEEEEEEEE!
Cruz is a good guy. He’s a terrible (ineffective) Senator. He belongs on the Supreme Court.
Trump will destroy our oppressors. Cruz won’t know how.
My family is ready to vote today.
It's early, very, very, very early. As a Cruz supporter I'm glad he's not number one in the polls at this point. Around this time in the past presidential elections we had Rudy, Newt and Herman Cain as the frontrunner and they fizzled out. There's plenty of primary left, plenty of debates to unfold and plenty of time for FOX and the MSM to recognize his candidacy once the other scrubs drop out and they have to talk about him.
So true!
This is becoming more noticeable with every new poll that shows Cruz moving upward without a mention, while a candidate with a much lesser achievement gets fawned over for several minutes. I'm going to bring this up at at the next NH Leadership meeting. There has to be something that the top strategists can do to circumvent the media's effort to shut him out.
If anybody has any good ideas to offer on this, please throw 'em out there and I will mention them at the next opportunity.
Actually it was Perry, and Rudy didn’t run in 2012. I don’t see Trump self-destructing the way Perry did.
We’ll see there’s plenty of time left, but I will take Trump over most of the candidates.
Hi, dear Vin! Thank you for the ping!
I surely defer to your expertise and experience on what’s what with the underlying polling for our great patriot, Ted Cruz, and I do respect your loyalty for the best bet to be the next Republican nominee, Ted Cruz. Except for Trump.
The candidates seem to be smartly chilling for awhile, until the dust settles from the Trump helicopter and that great plane of his buzzing fields, landing and taking off. %:D HA!
Mostly they are holding their funding close, waiting on a better opening for Trump to flame out a little. But not Cruz! He is showing up, knows where he is going, and he is appearing in fine base venues (and we all know what showing up means for success). The Turtle and The Hare comes to mind!
I do love Trump. He rocks my heart and my warrior core, he brings back what it means to be a fearless American, and he speaks for me to the GOP, the Marxist regime in charge and has reminded us of a truly silent majority who still can at least roar, after all. He delivers my message. It’s amazing what general can lead, while the smart guys peddle morals and academics.
We have to bring ACTION and the fear factor to the field. Donald is doing that. All the right people are fearful, alarmed at least, and in the middle of experiencing some meaningful disarray. I have prayed for that, short of the Second Coming. I admit it.
To your point, I have said that I am for Trump, and hard, until which time I’m not. I know he is a risk, but I am for destruction of the Establishment and he is the force giving them the shivers.
If he scares out and sabotages himself, then Cruz is there, but if Trump takes this energy and inspiration all the way, we will win the General Election. It’s sure nice not to have that white knuckle feeling we usually have for our favorite candidate.
I have also surmised that in this Godless era, that an honest and practicing Evangelical will not be elected. I know Trump is secular, but as I also have said, God has not always used the perfectly pious to work his will.
We must tag on Trump to stop the Planned Parenthood barbary, or no man can restore this country. We are on our way to Hell, will stay on our way to Hell, and will deserve our collapse. Nor a single candidate promises to destroy Planned Parenthood, or reform our Marxist education system.
Without that accomplished we churn out more of the same from our schools every May and December. Some things are too obvious to miss that must be done.
Love to you and yours, Vin.
Really? Regarding Romney vs Cruz votes, If you were talking about the General 2012 election, then that’s even more apples vs. oranges.
It’s common knowledge that more people vote during a Presidential election. And the further down ballot you go, the more drop off there is in voting.
Besides, the General election for US Senate was never in doubt. It’s hard to drum up enthusiasm for a race that is all but over. The Senate race after the primary all but dropped out of the news.
The Presidential race? We got an up close and personal view of Crispy hugging Barry. Do you remember that? Now, without looking, how many people here do you think can even remember the name of Sen. Cruz’ dem opponent?
You are trying to draw a conclusion that your facts don’t support. On purpose.
The data link is the percentage of the vote in their respective contests.
On purpose.
Absolutely. Romney was a terrible candidate, 98% of FReepers would agree with that statement. Doing worse than Romney in your adopted home state is a real warning flag in my analysis.
Yes, Vin, we are still, most definitely FRiends :)
Amen to dear Rita’s every word, in her wonderful reply post to you. She and I are still very sensible, and realists, as well ;)
Time will tell how this all will turn out. Right now, Trump is the one taking it to the establishment and they’re hitting him - and will hit even harder - with ALL they’ve got. I pray for His protection over Trump and his family’s safety....and, for a restoration and reformation of the USofA.
As usual Rita, you very ably make your case. And honestly, I’m happy that you have found a candidate that inspires your loyalty. We are in agreement as to the goal, which is to overthrow the DC politburo. The question is- who is best able to accomplish it?
To me, I see Donald as a jazz trumpeter. He’s certainly gifted, he’s hit the right melody, but there’s always the improvisation. Cruz, on the other hand, is a classical pianist– he’s going to play the master’s composition. I don’t have anything against Trump, I just feel more certain of what I get with Cruz.
The tortoise and the hare is apt– but, on a more practical level, it may ultimately be a fascinating confrontation between a genius salesman versus a genius attorney. Trump will mesmerize with visionary enticements, and Cruz will try to impeach the palaver with facts and evidence. Don’t know who wins that battle– but if they’re both on their game- it’ll be fun to watch.
As to the religious aspect, not really my bailiwick. In 2012, I was for Newt, and St. Rick drove me to distraction. What Cruz is trying to accomplish now by mobilizing Christians, I look at as politics- and essential. You know what happened in Indiana and Arkansas, and that dovetails into what happened with Trump with Univision and Macys– the oligarchs are stifling opposition. And as you indicate Donald’s popularity stems in significant part from his defiance- and it would surely help the cause if Cruz can politicize and activate a resistance movement.
And finally, I would like to comment on one of your posts that got some notoriety, i.e. that Megyn Kelly was a trap in a dress. And, with all due respect, I thought, Rita has so many insightful posts, why is she saying something so obvious??? Megyn a trap in a dress- well, duh- of course she is.......she’s a woman. -:)
In any event, I know we will not cross swords as to Cruz/Trump, either one is light years better than what we got now.
All right, I guess I should have known better then to try to take on two of the foremost ladies on the Board— -:)
You raise an interesting point about Trump’s safety; I feel the same way about Cruz— as I did Gov. Palin in 2009. There are certainly powerful interests who stand to lose a lot, if Trump or Cruz were to be elected.
I would like to think that they are working in tandem - they can have each others’ backs.
In any event, for the time being, you won’t hear one criticism about Donald from me— he helps Cruz. But, putting you on notice Jane, come January, you and Rita better keep your guards up. -:)
The GOP-E no longer controls elections or dialog.
Cruz changed the nature of the game and the rhetoric early in the game when he announced first with a fist full of dollars.
No more can the gop-e say that they control the dialog.
Cruz especially and now Trump have had access to the microphone and changed everything.
/johnny
Yeah, I definitely agree with that.
Cruz really was the first to begin to speak out against the GOPE, which to me is nothing more than government.
It is no sort of special group that seeks anything other than exactly what everyone else in government seeks.
Its platform is an outright lie, and its purpose really seems to be to bottle up anything conservatives believe in and at the same time make them think that voting for them somehow provides them a choice, thus pacifying them.
But I think the curtain has been pulled back, and everyone sees that they are being lied to, big time.
I have not been particularly fond of Trump, but being an American who loves America, I appreciate what he has brought to the table. He has changed the focus of this election utterly, and the GOP hates it, I mean HATES IT.
This is hilarious.
I am not sure if this election is going to turn this country around, but if it is to be turned around this is the road that must be traveled. It is basically time to fight or die.
That is mighty curious of FNC.
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