Posted on 08/24/2015 1:56:30 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Ben Domenech sent a flutter through conservative Twitter this weekend with this tweet. Ted Cruz, the great tea-party hope, a favorite for the nomination?
I think he’s right.
Likeliest Republican nominee as of today: @tedcruz.
— Ben Domenech (@bdomenech) August 22, 2015
Why does Cruz look like a frontrunner now when he didn’t two months ago? Mainly, I think, because the “electable” candidates have all looked weaker than expected, and not just vis-a-vis Trump. It’s been fully eight months since Jeb Bush announced his exploratory committee and still no one’s excited. He comes off like a less charismatic, more centrist Mitt Romney. Scott Walker can’t seem to give a straight answer to tough immigration questions and he disappeared at the first debate, taking a beating for it in the polls. Increasingly it seems like Tom Coburn’s assessment, that he’s not ready for national primetime, might be right. Marco Rubio’s in a different position from Bush and Walker in that he hasn’t really disappointed — he excelled at the debate and his favorable ratings remain off the charts — but he seems to be everyone’s second choice. Maybe he starts to move as Jeb fans accept that the dream of Bush 3.0 isn’t happening and Walker’s fans accept that the man who laid waste to the left in Wisconsin won’t be the same wrecking ball as president, but it seems like voters might be stuck seeing Rubio as a guy who’ll be perfect four or eight years from now. He looks like he’s 30 years old. Why not make him wait?
So the three “electable” guys in the race seem unelectable while Trump’s candidacy, which started off looking like a stunt, turns increasingly serious. The expected “Bush vs. Not Bush” campaign appears, for the moment, to be a “Trump vs. Not Trump” contest instead. If you’re in the “Not Trump” camp, who’s left realistically except Ted Cruz? His right-wing competition, i.e. Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal, seems to be going nowhere. He’s raised far more money than anyone expected he would, so he’s likely to be competitive deep into next spring at least. He’s well positioned in Iowa, South Carolina, and the “SEC primary” thanks to his evangelical cred. And as the staunchest conservative in the top tier, he’s a natural draw for righties who dislike Trump because they believe (correctly) that he’s a phony conservative.
More importantly, I think the success of Trump’s bareknuckle populist campaign has moved the Overton window of who can plausibly be nominated towards insurgency, which benefits Cruz. I touched on that in this post last week. We might (but probably won’t) reach the point where Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are 1-2 in the race and establishmentarians opposed to both will begin to warm to Cruz simply by dint of the fact that he’s not a loose cannon. Cruz, in other words, may become a sort of compromise candidate whose nomination can heal the party, sort of, after the fire of Trumpmania. At the start of the campaign, before Trump got in, it seemed like Scott Walker was best positioned to please both the establishment and the grassroots, but with populists now flexing their muscle via Trumpmania, a compromise between the two wings may require a pol who’s more ostentatiously populist than Walker is. Simply put, the donors and party brokers who want Jeb might now conclude that nominating the dynast Bush amid this populist wave would break the party — and that their back-up choice, Walker, might himself not have the strength among the grassroots anymore to fully heal the rift. The further the Trumpites and anti-Trumpites pull apart, the more urgent it’ll be to find someone who can pull them back together. Cruz, the brilliant Harvard Law grad who sounds like a preacher on the stump and shut down the government to try to stop ObamaCare, seems like the natural compromise choice. (See now why Cruz has been careful not to antagonize any Trump fans?) In that sense and probably that sense alone, Trumpmania has been excellent for conservatism. By making populism a force in the primary, Trump might end up forcing the wider party to make a concession to populism by accepting the tea party’s guy inside the Beltway as nominee.
Exit question: Is it actually true, as so many commenters claim, that Ted Cruz would benefit the most in the polls if Trump dropped out? If you think, as I’ve argued here, that Trumpmania is more of a populist and anti-illegal-immigration phenomenon than it is an ideological phenomenon, then yeah, Cruz is a natural beneficiary. (Ben Carson would be too.) Lots of Trump voters aren’t very conservative in their politics, though; check the crosstabs of polls taken over the last two months and you’ll find that he does at least as well with self-described moderates as he does with conservatives. Are moderate Trump fans going to swing around to the tea-partier Cruz? If not, where do they go? Or do they just decide to sit out the election?
There was a guy on O’Reilly like 6 months ago who basically said the exact same thing, that Cruz might end up being the best candidate to satisfy all wings of the party. It seems like a whole lot of parts need to move into the exact right place for that to happen though.
There is no question though that among those who usually back moderate candidates, they have become more comfortable with Cruz now that Trump is on the scene.
We want a true outsider.
Cruz is always a second best choice because he did raise money from the donor class, he does have the same lobbyist issues as jbush.
Cruz is tolerable only because every other senator in establishment leadership dislikes him.
Bush thought he could fool Reagan democrats. Only trump has those.
Cruz is reduced to trying to poach Huckabee useful idiots.
It's now RINO to write a Pro Cruz anti Bush article.
All in the name of supporting Trump I suppose.
Go Trump go.
Regardless, I would imagine his or her way of thinking is the same as mine. It is not that black and white. A lot of it is. But when Glenn Beck stopped fighting and started hugging and also when he called Cliven Bundy a racist, I lost some love for Beck. His criticism or skepticism of Trump doesn’t make him establishment. People here criticizing Trump, that doesn’t mean they support Jeb. There is a validity to some of these claims. There is also a possibility of it becoming the new racist in terms of misuse or over use
Cruz got less than Romney in the 2012 primary because he came in 2nd to Dewhurst in a 9 person race, while Romney was in a de facto 3 person race by the time it came to Texas (Romney, Santorum, and Paul, Sr.) where Santorum was fading fast.
Romney was an overwhelming favorite by the time the Presidential Primary came to Texas.
Cruz was an unknown challenging a Texas giant in Dewhurst in a crowd of candidates.
Apples and oranges, and you know it. You ask this question because most people don’t know the answer and you try to imply it means something it doesn’t.
A month later, in the runoff, Candidate Cruz trounced Lt. Gov. Dewhurst and became Sen. Elect Cruz and established his staying power.
Assert falsely all you like the Sen. Cruz isn’t beloved in Texas. There isn’t a politician in the state that wouldn’t give a kidney for his endorsement.
Hi Jane, I take it you’re for Donald, this go-round.
What I meant was,imo, the polls are currently uninformed. I’ll give you an example. The recent CNN poll asked about the “favorability” of five candidates— Trump, Bush, Carly, Walker, Kasich (evidently CNN’s front runners)
Now, the poll questions 300 reg Pubs, and 200 Indies leaning Rep. As to favorability, CNN offered a choice of “never heard of”. As for Walker, Kasich and Carly, 40%+/-, said they never heard of them! Basically then, 40% of the respondents have no knowledge of the current political landscape.
That’s why I said that, imo, Ted is ahead of the polls— I’ll wait until January 2016, when everyone’s more informed. If he’s behind at that time, then I’m wrong-— won’t be the first time.
So you are telling me that there is not a whole lot of torturous fantasizing going on out there in which various people imagine scenarios where somehow someone other than Trump is running away with it?
I read article after article where various people tell me that what is clearly happening is not actually happening and that something else is actually happening.
So how is that not magical thinking?
Why is Trump going to drop out of a race that he is currently easily leading, and after he does this, those that support him now are going to all of a sudden rally behind Ted Cruz, who really does not seem to be able to rally people to his cause on a national scale, despite being a conservative who is anti-GOPE.
And on top of that those that are currently supporting GOP candidates are also going to rally behind Ted Cruz after their current GOPE shlub also drops out of the race?
I understand that there are a lot of people who really, really, really wish super hard that Trump was not in this race, and there are even others who wish really, really, really, super hard that Ted Cruz was ahead of this entire field, but neither of those things are in fact reality.
I don’t get it, Johnny.
I like Ted Cruz. I think he’d be a good conservative president.
But the fact of the matter is that he has to win the nomination and the general election in order to arrive at that position, and so far I don’t see that he has the ability to do that.
And I am not going to sit here and imagine or give credence to far out claims and predictions that it is all going to somehow magically fall into place for him.
It seems like a really obvious answer to a really silly question.
But there are people in this thread who seem to think that ted Cruz is leading from behind somehow.
If that ain’t magical thinking, I don’t know what is.
No worries. You didn’t say this was your opinion (about current polls), so I thought you were going by actual polls.
Yes...Jan 2016 will be telling :)
US Chamber Cruz
Iran Deal - only needs 34 Senators to ratify -— Cruz voted for it because the US Chamber of Commerce wanted the deal
TPA — trade deals now only need 51 Senators to ratify -— Cruz voted for it because the US Chamber of Commerce wanted the deal
500% increase in H1-B Visas — Cruz supports this because the US Chamber of Commerce wants more low wage, skilled workers to replace US Citizens.
Work Permits for Illegal Aliens — Cruz inserted this into the Gang of 8 bill because the US Chamber of Commerce wants a second class of citizenship that can’t vote or be represented.
Yep
Personally, I don't see that happening, but if it does, expect FR to 'splain your error' to you. lol!
Best way to get correct info is make a false statement around here. The best way to get ignored is to be correct.
/johnny
Lately it seems as if Allahpundit is suffering from some mental illness, and this is no exception.
Well a lot of people want to mentally get rid of Trump. I know the GOPE wants to really badly.
But to mentally get rid of someone is to admit that you can’t physically do the same.
He’s still there despite efforts to remove him.
And yes, I’ve been wrong before. I was wrong when I called Trump a clown, obviously. I have no problem admitting when I am wrong, I’m not God.
But what if trump stays and wins the nomination? Are these magical thinkers going to admit that their magical thinking was wrong?
I can’t see any reason why he would drop out, unless maybe he falls into Lindsey Graham/ Chris Christie, George Pataki, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal territory.
I can’t see why he would win the presidency and then leave after one term and hand it off to his vice president Cruz either.
Man, there have been all sorts of the wildest theories and predictions and reasonings and explanations on what Trump is going to do and not do. I’ve never seen anything like it.
The man has really thrown a big monkey wrench into everyone’s works.
I have to admit that it is fairly entertaining to watch.
I am a Cruz supporter, but I have to acknowledge that Trump has thrown a wrench in his works and my works too.
But I find myself leaning towards Trump these days, because I am just not seeing the fire in Ted’s belly.
If you aren’t talking about a complete reversal of this illegal alien invasion, I don’t even really feel like listening.
After that lady was murdered by that filth in San Fransico, that’s it. We are at war, and the enemy general is the federal government, and its army is a bunch of 3rd world sh!tstains, and if we don’t win it, we are done.
Not talking about the primary numbers.
Romney got a higher percentage of the Texas popular vote than Cruz in the November 2012 election.
http://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist164_state.htm
Everybody on FR agrees Romney was a lousy candidate.
I have no problem with Cruz’s ideology.
LOL.
See... I knew we were still friends-
But, I have to say, you and my pal Rita, have really surprised me. Trump???? I mean, you gals have always been so sensible. Are you trying to start WWIII?
Did you hear him yesterday? He said that he went bankrupt in New Jersey because he should have known better than to start an “all-you-can eat- buffet” in Christie’s state! Lord, why not just come out and call the Governor of the sovereign state of New Jersey a slob!
Can you imagine him at a press conference with Putin? Intimidated, by the 6-2 Trump, 4 foot 2 Putin places a giant fan to the right of Trump’s podium- and in the middle of the global news conference, Trump’s glued comb-over flap finally yields and flops with a crash over his left ear. At which point, Trump looks down at the smiling Putin and spits- “you _______ midget, you did that on purpose”. And there you have it–WWIII.
Is this really what you want– or are we just trying to get a Freepathon over and done with? Pleeaasse, tell me it’s the latter.
And no, if Trump wins the nomination, expect to hear nothing from those that didn't support him.
Just commenting on how things work on FR.
I support Cruz (yes I have the T-Shirt) but even with the polls not being trustworthy right now I don't see Trump just walking away. From anything. Ever.
/johnny
As much as your scenario appeals to me, I can’t imagine what would motivate Trump to do such a thing
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