Posted on 08/22/2015 8:30:42 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Earlier this month, we noted that Donald Trump's polling surge and lead -- only two weeks old at the time -- tracked with the surges seen by Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich in the 2012 cycle. With another few weeks under his belt, we can update the chart in that post to show that Trump's pattern no longer matches Perry and Gingrich.
That could change, of course. Trump's about four or five days out from where Perry and Gingrich dropped off, but there haven't been many polls recently.
It is also possible that it won't change.
Fox News has been polling on Trump longer than most media outlets, and has the polls closest to either side of the first Republican debate. The polling over time pretty much mirrors the graph above (and, we'll note, contributes to the data in the graph above). Trump rose sharply, and now is dipping slightly among a number of demographics. That's in comparison to Jeb Bush, who stayed pretty flat until the debate, and then dropped off.
The trend for each since June:
It's worth pointing out that the lead Trump enjoys is fairly even across all groups. When you compare where he leads with who turned out to vote in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, his leads are not just among groups who turn out less frequently.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Donald (what’s a teleprompter) Trump is not going away..........
I disclose upfront that I am in the odd position of not liking Trump but rooting for him as he is driving the GOPe insane. (I get headaches lol)
But, in seriousness, I just don’t think anyone knows the answer to this question. I’ve been voting since Goldwater and I’ve never quite seen what is going on with Trump. We haven’t had reporters or investigate journalists in decades so there is no one to “make sense of” or “analyze this phenomenon. In short, we’re just gonna have to wait and see.
Jefferson Sessions as Vice President
Department of State , (Return INS.) – John Bolton
Department of Justice - Trey Gowdy (Suggested by The Donald)
Department of Treasury, (includes HHS Customs) – Carl Icahn (Offered and Accepted)
Department of War, (change the name back, include VA function.) – Gen. James Mattis
Department of Interior, (includes former Agriculture, Transportation, HHS Border Patrol, and Energy legitimate functions) – Gov. Palin
Department of Labor and Commerce – ELIMINATE
Department of Health and Human Services - ELIMINATE
Department of Homeland Security – ELIMINATE
Department of Education - ELIMINATE
Department of Housing and Urban Development – ELIMINATE
Excellent analysis!
How deep is the anger and fear that exists in the American people?
How deep is the anger and fear that exists in the American people?”
I think this will escalate or settle down depending on what Obama does in the coming months, how good we are at getting the information out about the real state of the nation and whether or not individual situations continue to deteriorate. Advertising for Christmas gifts has already begun. IMO Blue/Black Christmas for most, Trump’s numbers go through the roof.
Not to mention the Sarah Palin tease during the summer of 2011.
Donald Trump has not only dominated this race but he is completely dominating the news cycle as well. This is unprecedented, being that we are still about half a year away from the first binding primary/caucus.
There are concerns that Trump may be peaking too early due to this reason. By the time the votes really start to count, people may be tired of Trump.
We will see, but it is very unusual for so much attention being paid to the presidential race this early in the going. Usually nobody but political junkies pay attention at this juncture, as a dozen or so candidates jockey for position in the early stages.
What this Trump Mania has done, however, is suck the oxygen out of the room. This is the time of the campaign where potential candidates need to be raising money and gaining backers. I think over the next three months, we are going to see most of the other candidates drop out because they are not getting any money or attention.
This may leave Trump as the only man standing along with just a handful of others.
I have not seen this either. What it boils down to, is the absolute hate towards the DC insiders who live in their little world and only come out when it is election season. Then they lie and slander every single candidate that does not toe their line.
That is what this is about, and the mainstream media and elites cant understand it.
I personally helped one get elected-Mi 1, and he basically did what I refer to above. a 48% conservative rating. But, the bright spot is the one that is my rep here in AZ...Gosar.
How expandable is Trump’s lead?
Activist 55 years and I’ve never seen anything like it.
In Atlanta Mcdonalds Blacks come in for food, See Trump on TV (from Mobile) and stay for hours. They say Hilary is dead and they didn’t like her anyway. They say they aren’t Republicans but are supporting Trump “because he isn’t a real Republican anyway.”
I’ve never before seen so many low information, non-political people excited about a candidate. They are “debating” with each other while watching Trump. And the debates are all about which Trump supporter can suggest the most outrageous thing to support.
Is this the way Peron was in Argentina? Or Adolf in the 1920s?
Trump’s lead is deep, wide, strong, and therefore sustainable.
He isn't a real conservative, either.
With regard to how early in election season it is, no one seems to have mentioned the urgency everyone feels to get beyond the 0bama presidency. It’s not ‘’tired of’’. It’s not ‘’ready to move on’’. It’s urgency. Oh Dear God, get us out of here! Yesterday!
I really wonder if the election gains in 2014 wasn’t people hoping for impeachment. I suspect it.
Add that to a candidate who actually gets what virtually everyone has been feeling & Viola! FWIW, I don’t believe that Trump has “tapped into” anything. I think he feels these things, himself- & has for a long time.
Trump merely has to hang in there while his opponents self-destruct.
Walker and Rubio just took themselves out of the race with their continuous flip-flopping on illegal immigration, the issue that’s going to be THE national election issue thanks to Mr. Trump, the first GOP candidate to set the national agenda in decades, and most of the 3rd tier candidates are gasping for air since Trump sucked all of the oxygen out of the room, e.g., Christie and Graham well be lucky to be invited to the kiddie table.
Considering the complete nonsustainableness of the campaigns of most of the rest of the GOP candidates, it’s hilarious that the kommie media is focusing on whether Trump can maintain his lead.
Someone who is not a career politician is not supposed to be eligible for president. They’re not even supposed to know how to run for president! Whoops! Wrong again!
You are misinterpreting their comments. I said this in another post some time ago - Trump is giving Ds permission to vote R without them having to explain and get vilified by their lib friends. So, they say he isn’t a real Republican - see how that works? It makes perfect sense to me because I know people who are also giving themselves permission to vote for him - and they are lifelong DEMs.
I was reluctant to say I would vote for Donald, as Cruz is my candidate. But given his charity and the fact that he could give a rat’s ass about the GOPe, I’d be more than pleased now to support him as candidate.
Refreshing, isn’t it?
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