Posted on 08/20/2015 5:29:26 PM PDT by SkyPilot
If nature abhors a vacuum, investors aren’t so crazy about them either.
It’s hard to avoid all the voids right now. The August Wall Street vacation evacuation is well underway, markets are facing an absence of inflation, huge air pockets underneath commodities and emerging-market currencies – and a vexing lack of clarity about what the Fed might do in less than a month’s time.
The collective response to this environment devoid of strong conviction has been to pull cash out of riskier markets and wait. Barclays Capital says more than $90 billion has sought the shelter of money-market funds in the past six weeks. That’s roughly the same magnitude of flight response seen in other “risk-off” spasms of the past four years, from the 2011 Euro debt crisis, the “fiscal cliff” drama of 2012 and the “taper tantrum” in 2013.
Professional investors commonly speak of putting certain complicated market calls as on the “too hard” pile. There is wisdom in knowing when one has no clear edge in figuring out a delicate investment situation. But the markets still open just about every weekday, and more often than not they sag into this vacuum.
Through a broad lens, it’s a net positive that the big money has taken cash off the table in favor of waiting. Conservative positioning usually is a buffer against nasty further declines, but comes with no guarantees. Those prior surges in money-market flows proved to be good buying opportunities for stocks and riskier bonds, for what that's worth.
Much of this indecision comes down to a nervous vigil ahead of what remains a toss-up call on whether the Fed will enter liftoff in September, or even December.
Yesterday’s muted reading on consumer inflation gave Janet Yellen little of the ammo she seems to seek...
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
I doubt that anyone is frightened by my comments.People are free to see what I see and draw their own conclusions.
Basically...sell at the top and buy back at the bottom.....buy at the bottom and sell at the top. Most people think you can only BUY and hope things go UP. There is $$$ to be made on both sides, if you know what yer doing....Rooster and you know what it’s all about. If you study commodities at all, you know this.
The secret is all about becoming a trader.
I am not a trader but I did spend my career on Wall St.
I am a buy and hold investor.
My brother is a trader and a good one. You are either a trader or you are not. I am not.
Traders follow the market swings and long term investors watch sectors for growth (at least that is what I do...and I have done well at it).
You must decide if you are a long term visionary or a short-term visionary.
Chances are, you can't be both.
You will have a visceral feel for one or the other. Or none at at all.
Do you actually know anything about investing or are you just sharing your fears?
What is going on?
Investors used to put their own hard earned money (real money) at risk to start a business that actually produced things and employed people.
...
They still do. There are gamblers in the market, too. Not much has changed over the years.
Not true.
You are spreading fear and panic. And I am guessing you are not an expert in investing.
If I am wrong, please forgive me. But hysteria is never needed in the markets. That causes regular folks to panic and lose money unnecessarily.
So if you are not an investment professional, please stop.
Wouldn't want to scare away retail before they all get distributed to. Have to wait so that everything can get back into the hands of its rightful owners at exactly the right time. So you're a market expert? Have you written HFT programs? Are you involved in corporate use of cheap Fed money for the purpose of stock buy back? Beanie Babies? What?
I'll add this: the markets should have been allowed to take their medicine back in 2008 and healed their self-inflicted wounds. Instead, they threw a hissy fit, we had a 777.7 point decline, and their tantrum then has set us up for a looming disaster. I believe it is not if, but when, that we suffer a horrible collapse. Perhaps soon. And this time we all will suffer: the elderly, the poor, the middle class, the disabled veteran, children, everyone.
I think you have normalcy bias. You just can't see that things are on the cusp of massive change, and not for the better.
The metals markets are collapsing. This is REAL news. Here’s one factoid for you: The Koreans are selling NEW steel back into the market for less than what they paid for it. It appears they KNOW we’re in for a long downturn. That is not spreading fear, but distributing facts. Something nasty IS about to happen.
It will all be because the vile, white, racist Republicans tied 0bama’s hands and kept him from saving us from the final fallout of the Bush Administration. Or something.
Gold is up today.
I have been a lurker on this board since the late 90s. I have read it daily. I registered as a member in July 2001. I never post for a number of reasons. Just enjoy reading the articles and the banter. Many times, many, many, many, I’ve wanted to post, but resisted the temptation. Your post is the first in 14 years that I can remember to motivate me to respond.
My reply is simple. Anyone with half a brain outside of the echo chamber of Wall Street and D.C. KNOWS that this current run up in the market is unsupported by the economic facts on the ground. This bubble is a doozy and there are no mom and pops to take the fall while the big boys get out. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice (or thrice) shame on me. No, this is going to be nasty and the big boys are getting hurt.
It appears that your posting history is a bit more reliable than your memory, but you have indeed been quiet for extended periods.
Point taken. A handful of posts, last in 2008. My memory is getting bad since I turned 50. Lol.
They are written and researched by Rabbi Jonathan Cahn and if you are looking to understand the “7 year Cycle” that we have been experiencing in our markets, you MUST spend time learning about this. Many advisors and economists (even ones that do not believe in God) have been using this to learn about these cycles.
1901-1902 Shemitah Year - 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
1916-1917 Shemitah Year - 40% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. Britain, the world’s greatest empire was almost bankrupt. The beginning of American to rise to world power. All during this one Shmita year.
1930-1931 Shemitah Year - 86% U.S stock market value wiped out in the worst financial crisis in modern history.
1937-1938 Shemitah Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.
1944-1945 Shemitah Year - End of German Reich and Britain’s hold on territories. Establishment of America as the world’s super power.
1965-1966 Shemitah Year - 23% stock market value wiped out.
1972-1973 Shemitah Year - 48% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession. U.S. Voted to kill its unborn children (Abortion legalized). U.S. lost its first war - Vietnam...
1979-1980 Shemitah Year - U.S. and global recession.
1986-1987 Shemitah Year - 33% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
1993-1994 Shemitah Year - Bond market crash.
2000-2001 Shemitah Year - 37% U.S. stock market value wiped out. 9/11 and Global recession.
2007-2008 Shemitah Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.
2014-2015 Shemitah Year -
So it’s the Jooo’s fault? ;>)
Is that you, Bill DeVane?
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