Trump riding his low info. voter hords, who will follow him slavishly.
Ted Cruz wields a mighty intellect and love of Constitutional freedom.
Posted on 08/20/2015 10:51:41 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Gooooood question by Scott McKay, and he’s not just blowing smoke. A Trump/Cruz death match, while still implausible, is more plausible than it might seem thanks to Cruz’s surprising fundraising strength. He’s got the dough to make a long run if voters give him a reason to keep going. And so does Donald Trump, of course.
Two populists enter, one populist leaves.
Cruz has regional strength in Texas and Louisiana, which could translate into his picking up Perry and Jindal supporters. Despite his clashes with Graham in the Senate, Cruz’ calls for a muscular foreign policy could appeal to the several dozen supporters the South Carolinian has amassed. Those of Christie’s supporters who came to him for his combative style might look to Cruz rather than Trump.
And then after the second round of dropouts, Cruz could gain even more support. Particularly should Paul leave the race; if he isn’t gaining ground, at some point he’s going to have to consider whether his smartest play won’t be to return to Kentucky to defend his Senate seat, and Cruz is a friend and partner in many cases (though for Paul so is Mitch McConnell, which makes for an interesting conflict). Should Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum drop out, none of the others has put in more work to attract the social conservatives they represent than Cruz…
We could see a situation where Trump is ahead on the strength of his performance in the early states and still leads in the polls, though he might have commenced fading in the face of the various challenges befalling a presidential candidate and the terror gripping the party of having to nominate a bull-in-a-China-shop like the real estate magnate has not subsided. But while the establishment might believe Trump is beatable, they could be without candidates to beat him.
Is that what those “secret” chats between Cruz and Trump are about? Some master plan to clear the rest of the GOP field between them? Suddenly I’m imagining a “special message” from Trump next spring, aired live from his office in Trump Tower, in which he reveals that his candidacy was actually part of an elaborate pincer movement to outwit the GOP donor class and pave the way for the man he’s really supporting for president — at which point Ted Cruz steps into frame. Then they both laugh mwa-ha-ha style as Karl Rove, watching from home, leaps to his feet and covers his mouth in astonishment. My God — it’s all so clear now.
McKay’s prediction: If forced to choose, the RINOs would swallow hard and opt for the devil they know, Ted Cruz, over the one they don’t, which I think is true. Establishmentarians value stability above all things and Cruz, at least, is a known quantity, however much they may disdain his ideology. Trump, although a moderate and therefore closer to them on most policies, is a true loose cannon. Forced to choose between a guy who’d threaten the status quo from the inside and one who’d do it from the outside, they’ll take door number one every time. Besides, Cruz is willing to make concessions to “electability” that Trump isn’t. Look no further than immigration to see the difference. Trump is out there screeching about mass deportations; Cruz concedes that some illegals should be legalized. And of course Cruz isn’t going to go out there as president and call the president of Mexico a “fat loser” or whatever.
So yeah, the establishment would go with the professional politician if they had to decide. And conservative voters, of course, would go with the true conservative. That was the significance of yesterday’s PPP poll out of North Carolina: When given a choice between Trump and Marco Rubio or Scott Walker, righties opt for the latter despite giving Trump fairly solid marks on favorability. Meanwhile, undecideds would line up behind the professional pol, knowing that he’d be less likely to alienate swing voters with his rhetoric in the general election and therefore would be more electable. And even some Trump fans, satisfied that the true RINOs in the race like Jeb Bush had been eliminated, would switch to Cruz knowing that he’s as anti-establishment in his own way as Trump is. I think Cruz wins the war with Trump easily.
But wait. Would the GOP establishment ever really allow a Trump/Cruz race to develop? Give me a scenario in which the early primaries play out and somehow the donor class gets caught flat-footed with Trump and Cruz the only two guys left who are viable. Imagine that they both do shockingly well early on — Trump wins New Hampshire, Cruz wins South Carolina, and one of the two of them wins Iowa. What happens at that point, with the “SEC primary” in the south on March 1st right around the corner? What happens, I think, is that establishmentarians settle on Marco Rubio as the last best “electable” hope of the party and throw an ocean of cash at him to get his message out.
Walker will be a dead letter at that point after having lost Iowa and Bush will be badly damaged from having lost New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Cruz and Trump will be out on the stump banging the drum about cracking down on illegals. The obvious solution for Beltway righties is to come together behind the young, rhetorically gifted, Latino candidate with the sky high favorable ratings in all the polls. If Rubio pulled off a win over Jeb in the Florida primary, that would put him right back in the race; meanwhile, all the “somewhat conservative” voters who think Trump’s a clown and that Cruz is too far right would eagerly swing behind him in a “save us, Marco!” effort. The Republican establishment didn’t get to be where it is by letting itself be outmaneuvered by populist insurgents, even if one of those insurgents has a few billion in the bank. If Walker and Bush have no victories between them after New Hampshire, they’ll come under heavy pressure from donors to drop out and back Rubio. And if one of them does end up with an early win, that guy will have enough momentum that he, rather than Rubio, will probably become the great establishment hope against Trump and Cruz, with loads of new money showered on him to keep him going through the primaries. There simply won’t be a binary Trump/Cruz choice at any point of this race, unless there’s some sort of total meltdown within the donor class.
Exit question: Are we sure McKay’s right that establishmentarians would prefer Cruz over Trump? I think they would for the reasons I’ve stated, but the one great virtue of Trump to a Beltway Republican is that he can, in theory, be coopted ideologically. You’ll have a hard time getting Cruz to go RINO because he’s an ideologue; Trump, whose politics are more eclectic, should be easier to sway. Provided you can get past the thought of “fat loser” name-calling during Rose Garden press conferences, that is.
Only if he should find the idiots being nicer to him and treating with respect and fairness. After verification, he might consider doing them a favor.
I am not positive, but I believe there was another president in office at the White House. For the past eight years, I think. Surely, he had some impact on taxes, regulations, rules, domestic and foreign affairs, etc. Oh, and trade.
Thread winner!
Trump definitely understands how to enact the kind of protectionism that liberal union Democrats love.
Trump riding his low info. voter hords, who will follow him slavishly.
Ted Cruz wields a mighty intellect and love of Constitutional freedom.
That’s true, but 1) I didn’t see any change in policy when Bush was in charge, and 2) Cruz’s support of the the trade bill indicates he doesn’t understand what needs to be done.
Otherwise, I’d consider Cruz’s experience as policy advisor to the Trade Commission as a plus. But just because he was a policy advisor, doesn’t mean he really understood all the options and economic impact of those options.
Trump seems to have a pretty good understanding of what’s wrong. Plus he understands leverage in negotiations and seems to have a solid plan to fix it.
What’s you opinion your ex governor, Sarah Palin?
Primarily because of a ‘70s law that does not allow us to export our own domestic oil. No biggie, we can keep it here. It may hurt the “trade deficit” but since that means we get to keep our own oil here, it’s not exactly “hurting” us.
Trump has been whining about the same trade deal issues since at least 1988 on the Letterman show. It’s the only policy he’s been consistent on. But if it was so important, the economy would’ve been steadily going down since then. It hasn’t. It’s been up and down like it always has been. Trump’s precious trade deals are a miniscule factor to the economy.
The reason our country’s fiscal picture is in trouble is because of out-of-control entitlement spending, plain and simple. And that’s something Trump doesn’t seem to want to touch. He insists there will be no reforms to Medicare or Social Security. And he apparently wants to replace Obamacare with Trumpcare including more spending on ‘women’s health.’ Add on more military spending while you’re at it. How he’s going to pay for it, no one seems to know. Will tariffs on Mexico cover all that?
Trump’s a severe big government “conservative.”
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
The Republican party used to be protectionist. Then Milton Friedman brainwashed them.
The logical extreme of the argument that protectionism helps union is to offshore all American industries and really teach those unions a lesson.
Filling that 40,000 seat stadium in Alabama is quite the achievement for Donald Trump. I don't think that has ever been done before in the history of presidential politics. Usually the focus at this point in the campaign is Iowa and New Hampshire. Never before did I see a rally in Alabama nearly half a year before the primaries.
What’s you opinion your ex governor, Sarah Palin?
WRONG thread... Skip...
Danny, I have relatives who think and talk like you do.
I put them out of my life, and I am happier for it.
They are bitter, always unhappy and hard to understand.
We had this little chat and hopefully it will be the last.
Milton Friedman was a genius and Reagan’s most important mentor.
You either believe in freedom or you believe in centralized command economies run by commiecrats who pass laws telling you what you’re not allowed to buy and sell and collecting taxes when you do things they don’t like.
And the bottom line I would think is who can win the election. Mr. Trump is gaining supporters across the board, not just from conservatives. That will be necessary to win.
I’m not sure I can agree that Donald Trump is a stalking horse for Ted Cruz.
Thats fair... But at least, you cannot say that/this view has not been spammed, posted.. harangued.. whined.. Barked.. Yodeled and Screamed (( ME ))
all over the place..
Your “logical extreme” is anything but. Both “extremes” in your example represent Washington bureaucrats passing laws forcing people to do things one way or the other.
The opposite is a free market where people choose to buy and sell whatever they want and hire and fire whoever they want based on their own free will and most probably on the profit motive. That is what leads to innovation, lower and lower prices for more and more goods and services and an ever-increasing standard of living.
Our free markets and free trade have contributed to our ever increasing standard of living, one of the highest in the world. Those trade deals Trump’s been whining about since the ‘80s certainly don’t seem to have hurt our standard of living.
Well doesn’t Sarah Palin talk well of Trump?
Wasn’t she governor of Alaska for a couple of years.
Ok... Sarah likes what Trump is doing, so do I...
I want TRUMP used like the rented donkey he is..
I clap for him when envisorates the pressitutes..
I would clap for John Boehner even if he did that...
BUT I don’t like him EITHER..
I bet Sarah would vote for Cruz if asked.. not TRUMP..
UNLESS Trump won the primary.. then I wouldn’t blame her..
I would to...
The problem is I don’t want the BASTARD TO WIN.. i.e. Trump..
I didn’t like both Bush’s or Romney as well..
but voted for their slimey asses..
OK.... so you’ll vote for The Donald if Cruz can’t get his numbers up and win. Thanks
OK.... so you’ll vote for The Donald if Cruz can’t get his numbers up and win. Thanks
Unless he gets a little too honest and exposes himself..
as to what he really is.. which could happen....
then I might write in Barry Goldwater..
who may voting this year in Chicago..
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