Posted on 07/24/2015 11:46:51 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Donald Trump is making noise about an independent bid for president. If the Republican National Committee doesn’t treat him fairly, Trump says, he’ll be more likely to launch a third-party run. I don’t know if he is at all serious, but I do know two things: History suggests that an independent Trump campaign would crash and fail; polling suggests that even if that happened, Trump could take the Republican candidate down with him.
Trump received 20 percent of the vote in a hypothetical matchup against Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb Bush in a newly released ABC News/Washington Post poll. But, if Trump were to run as an independent, his support would likely fade. Since the first Gallup poll in 1936, there have been five independent or third-party campaigns in which a candidate received at least 5 percent of the vote in early polls. All but George Wallace in 1968 ended up with a lower percentage of the vote than they initially garnered, according to Gallup surveys.
In fact, both Ross Perot in 1992 and George Wallace in 1968 faded more down the stretch than these numbers suggest. Perot polled at an amazingly high 39 percent in summer 1992 (that was before he dropped out and then re-entered the race). Wallace reached the low 20s in late September 1968 and then dropped steadily as Election Day approached.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Thank you for looking at my FREEP page.
He also has “friends” named Palin and, previously, Reagan. But you know, if that’s the case, it’s the Republicans’ problem. Maybe they will put principle above Bush for a change.
If it happens again in 2016, it will be for the same reason.
Not because of Donald Trump, but because of historic low voter turnout, aka "Why bother?"
Exactly. It's simply a question of political math.
One of the problems among "True Believers" is their failure to do the math.
Elections are about ideas, but they are decided by adding and subtracting numbers, not ideas.
Be well
Not so. You and I may put ideas first & personalities second, but we are probably in a small minority on that. Most people vote primarily for such considerations as family habit or social identity, the personality of the particular candidate, or their hostility to a particular personality, social identity, etc..
Trump is formidable--as he was not in his previous effort to win the Reform Party nomination--wasn't that in 2000, when he lost to Buchanan?--because he has learned how far better to project his personality, and to combine that with speaking out on issues that the whipped cur Republicans are afraid to touch.
In that scenario, he is indeed appealing to ideas; but it is the personality factor that makes him able to do so effectively. He reminds one of Teddy Roosevelt, who basically succeeded by projecting a similar personality.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.