Posted on 07/23/2015 4:35:20 PM PDT by Isara
National Journal’s Charlie Cook: “Plus four” to go along with Trump are Bush, Cruz, Rubio and Walker
HOUSTON, Texas — National Journal’s Charlie Cook wrote about a recent survey conducted by the Cruz campaign’s “highly regarded Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research” where it was noted that “[r]ight now, the ‘plus four’ to go along with Trump are Bush, Cruz, Rubio and Walker.” Excerpts from the article appear below:
A New Poll Shows the Contours of the GOP Field
National Journal
July 23, 2015
Charlie Cook
This poll is particularly interesting because unlike surveys conducted by most news organizations, it starts off sampling from a data file of actual registered voters, then screens down those most likely to actually cast their vote in their state primary or caucus.
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The poll for the Cruz campaign starts off with a trial heat, with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at the top with real likely voters at 17 percent, followed by Trump with 15 percent, well within the 3.5-point margin of error for this survey. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush follows in third with 11 percent, then a two-way tie for fourth between Cruz and Dr. Ben Carson. Next comes Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida with 6 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 5 percent, and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky with 4 percent. Another 12 percent chose someone else, and 16 percent were undecided (polls of likely voters usually show lower numbers of undecided).
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When looking at these ratings it’s useful to look at the ratio of favorables to unfavorables. Carson had the best ratio with 7.4 to 1, Rubio and Walker tied at second with 5.5-1 and Cruz fourth at 3.8 to 1. The four with weakest ratios were Huckabee at 2.7-1, Trump and Bush tied with 1.7-1 and finally Paul 1.5-1.
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Cruz pollster Chris Wilson looked at the new data through the lens of the Selzer Score, finding Walker at the top with a Selzer Score of 74, followed by Trump with 64.5, Bush third with 63.5 and Cruz fourth with 54, just ahead of Rubio’s 53.5. The bottom three were Carson at 46.5, a hair ahead of Huckabee’s 46 then Paul rounding out the pack with 37.5.
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Obviously many more polls will be coming out and new theories will emerge but this survey, along with others that screen down hard are important to consider. Right now, the “plus four” to go along with Trump are Bush, Cruz, Rubio and Walker.
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Good assessment. Not a fan of Fiorini though and would hate to see her as VP pick. She has such an unsuccessful background that can be used against her.
Rubio should fizzle out when it becomes apparent that he’s all style and no substance.
Fiorini is a smart lady, who knows how to bash Hillary, and who makes a good demographic pick. She can’t deliver a state, but she can plus up a demographic in a Hillary campaign that will be 90% “I Have a V-Dialogue for You”
Sorry. Not voting for Bono, LOL!
Walker or Cruz is fine with me. I’ll let the chips fall where they may and I’ll hope against HOPE that I can actually VOTE for the one I want to WIN this time around, rather than voting for the lesser of two evils.
Grrrrrrrrr!
Those are the only ones that should be in the debate: Trump, Bush, Cruz, Rubio, and Walker. The GOP should ask the others to drop out.
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First of all, Ted Cruz is my guy. But, SCREW THE GOP and the horse they rode in on. Who the hell wants a bunch of do-nothing, pus*y RINOs telling us who can run and who must drop out? My man is Cruz, but of those omitted from your list, let me say this: Carly Fiorina is a hellacious fighter. She’s the only one calling out Hillary Clinton with a vengeance. Secondly, Ben Carson is a decent man and has earned the acceptance of enough Conservatives that he deserves to be on The Debate Stage. Thirdly, while I am not a Rand Paul guy, he is the only candidate calling for Congress to defund Planned Parenthood for selling body parts of little, aborted babies. Don’t mute his voice.
Interesting that you did not get a reply from them.
Well, Ted Cruz is my guy, but I must say this for Rubio: He kicked John Kerry’s ass today at the hearing on the Iran Nuclear deal. Once again, he is not my choice, but the guy is no dummy; he’s very smart and he definitely is NOT “all style and no substance.”
You guys don’t have to worry about Ted Cruz and his ability to conduct himself properly on the Debate stage. He is a master at Debating. He will be just fine; actually, he will be awesome. No one on that stage will make a decent pimple on Ted Cruz’s ass when it comes to debating. Now, try to find something of substance to worry about.
Rubio is a cross between a weasel and Eddie Haskell.
Yes
Go Ted.....!!!!!
No, just wondering if they are taking notes to pass on to the top guy.
Let the first debates be about how terrible the Democrats have ran our country into the ground.
Fiorina was fired for cause, she has no worker credibility. A real loser.
I see no reason to vote for Walker. Ever. He would be another GWB. Weak. Blah. If Republicans want me to vote, they’d better nominate Cruz.
That is really true. I think he’s owned by the Bush family.Owned by the Bush family? That is one of the more ridiculous statements I've read. Think through that logically for a minute and see if you cannot work your way out of that opinion.
He was top tier all along. The rest is just fluff and monarchs.
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