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New Poll Shows Cruz in Top Tier
TedCruz.org ^ | 07/23/15

Posted on 07/23/2015 4:35:20 PM PDT by Isara

National Journal’s Charlie Cook: “Plus four” to go along with Trump are Bush, Cruz, Rubio and Walker

HOUSTON, Texas — National Journal’s Charlie Cook wrote about a recent survey conducted by the Cruz campaign’s “highly regarded Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research” where it was noted that “[r]ight now, the ‘plus four’ to go along with Trump are Bush, Cruz, Rubio and Walker.” Excerpts from the article appear below:

A New Poll Shows the Contours of the GOP Field
National Journal
July 23, 2015
Charlie Cook

This poll is particularly interesting because unlike surveys conducted by most news organizations, it starts off sampling from a data file of actual registered voters, then screens down those most likely to actually cast their vote in their state primary or caucus.

The poll for the Cruz campaign starts off with a trial heat, with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at the top with real likely voters at 17 percent, followed by Trump with 15 percent, well within the 3.5-point margin of error for this survey. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush follows in third with 11 percent, then a two-way tie for fourth between Cruz and Dr. Ben Carson. Next comes Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida with 6 percent, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 5 percent, and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky with 4 percent. Another 12 percent chose someone else, and 16 percent were undecided (polls of likely voters usually show lower numbers of undecided).

When looking at these ratings it’s useful to look at the ratio of favorables to unfavorables. Carson had the best ratio with 7.4 to 1, Rubio and Walker tied at second with 5.5-1 and Cruz fourth at 3.8 to 1. The four with weakest ratios were Huckabee at 2.7-1, Trump and Bush tied with 1.7-1 and finally Paul 1.5-1.

Cruz pollster Chris Wilson looked at the new data through the lens of the Selzer Score, finding Walker at the top with a Selzer Score of 74, followed by Trump with 64.5, Bush third with 63.5 and Cruz fourth with 54, just ahead of Rubio’s 53.5. The bottom three were Carson at 46.5, a hair ahead of Huckabee’s 46 then Paul rounding out the pack with 37.5.

Obviously many more polls will be coming out and new theories will emerge but this survey, along with others that screen down hard are important to consider. Right now, the “plus four” to go along with Trump are Bush, Cruz, Rubio and Walker.

Read the full article here.

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TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: cruz; tedcruz
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FYI
1 posted on 07/23/2015 4:35:20 PM PDT by Isara
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To: Isara

Trump and Cruz are the only ones I bother to listen to. Maybe Walker on a good day.

The rest are nonentities.


2 posted on 07/23/2015 4:37:37 PM PDT by marron
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To: Isara

Good news I suppose but even with my guy Cruz I’m still suspicious of Polls ran by the candidate himself.

But then again, I don’t trust the polls by anyone else either. I think everyone of them fudges.


3 posted on 07/23/2015 4:41:07 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: Isara

4 posted on 07/23/2015 4:42:12 PM PDT by South40 (Rafael Edward Cruz 2016!)
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To: Isara

Those are the only ones that should be in the debate: Trump, Bush, Cruz, Rubio, and Walker. The GOP should ask the others to drop out.


5 posted on 07/23/2015 4:49:38 PM PDT by Reno89519 (American Lives Matter! US Citizen, Veteran, Conservative, Republican. I vote. Trump 2016.)
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To: marron

“Trump and Cruz are the only ones I bother to listen to. Maybe Walker on a good day.

The rest are nonentities.”

I totally agree.


6 posted on 07/23/2015 4:59:19 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: Isara

Sadly, Trump/Cruz/Walker/Carson/Huckabe are splitting the base votes, the 3 prong conservative votes. Bush/Walker/Rubio/Christie are splitting the pocketbook republican votes.

There are far more 3 prong conservatives than any other type, and if they coalesced around one candidate, they’d win going away.

My sense is that Carson and Huckabee are not going to win the nomination. Carson would be a good VP pick. (As would Fiorini)

Bush and Rubio don’t know what to do with Walker, who pulls some of the pocketbook republicans, however, they should both encourage Christie to bow out. Even though he might deliver New Jersey, he’s damaged goods for social conservatives.

Because of electoral college rules, there is a possibility of throwing the vice presidency to a democrat in a close election, if both candidates are from the same state, and there’s no advantage to it, anyway. I don’t know if they’ll fight it out or buy it out, but one of them has to go. In that regard, Rubio is doing a favor to 3 prong conservatives by staying in. He also would be a balancing VP pick who could deliver a major state.


7 posted on 07/23/2015 5:04:08 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Pray for their victory or quit saying you support our troops)
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To: marron

I agree.


8 posted on 07/23/2015 5:12:39 PM PDT by Jane Austen (Recall Gov. Nikki Haley, aka Nimrata Randhawa)
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To: Isara

Rubio should fizzle out when it becomes apparent that he’s all style and no substance.

He should have never gave up his Senate seat.


9 posted on 07/23/2015 5:23:48 PM PDT by Shadow44
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To: marron

Wow,,this debate is going to be fun, and probably rather friendly....and I Hope the participants direct most of their shots towards the Communist Evil Democrats.


10 posted on 07/23/2015 5:30:38 PM PDT by austinaero
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To: Isara
"The poll for the Cruz campaign starts off with a trial heat, with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at the top"

Well, yes, of course.

"Cruz pollster Chris Wilson looked at the new data through the lens of the Selzer Score, finding Walker at the top"

True. The Cruz campaign has it right then. Walker's at the top, because he has a record of cutting the government spending that has allowed socialists money and time for politics. After Walker is president, Cruz, being one of the greatest lawyers of our time, might well be the best attorney general, too.


11 posted on 07/23/2015 5:41:56 PM PDT by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of corruption smelled around the planet.)
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To: SoConPubbie

Cruzin-The-Top-Tier PING for the list.


12 posted on 07/23/2015 5:46:00 PM PDT by Pajamajan ( Pray for our nation. Thank the Lord for everything you have. Don't wait. Do it today.)
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To: Isara

13 posted on 07/23/2015 5:51:34 PM PDT by PROCON (CRUZing into 2016 with Ted!)
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To: Isara; Kale; Jarhead9297; COUNTrecount; notaliberal; DoughtyOne; MountainDad; aposiopetic; ...
    Ted Cruz Ping!

    If you want on/off this ping list, please let me know.
    Please beware, this is a high-volume ping list!

    CRUZ or LOSE!

14 posted on 07/23/2015 6:24:36 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency)
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To: marron
Trump and Cruz are the only ones I bother to listen to. Maybe Walker on a good day.

Same Here!

15 posted on 07/23/2015 6:27:57 PM PDT by Fiddlstix (Warning! This Is A Subliminal Tagline! Read it at your own risk!(Presented by TagLines R US))
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To: Isara

President Ted Cruz can’t come here soon enough.


16 posted on 07/23/2015 6:49:54 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist (BeThe aKeystone Pipe lik Project : build it already Congress)
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To: Isara; INVAR; dp0622; left that other site; GregoTX; SgtHooper; Whenifhow; Loud Mime; lonevoice; ...
    Daily Digest Ted Cruz Ping for July 23rd, 2015!

    If you want on/off this ping list, please let me know.

    CRUZ or LOSE!


What has Ted Cruz done?

Watch: Ted Cruz Gets Confronted By Outraged Protesters, Responds In A Way They Never Expected

NYTimes Moves Cruz Behind Jimmy Carter on Bestseller List Despite Selling 58% More Books

Cruz: Iran deal will make Obama, Clinton, Kerry leading financiers of Islamic terrorism

White House says Cruz's anti-Iran deal rally was 'pro-war'

Cruz Shuts Down CODEPINK Outside White House

Cruz: Planned Parenthood "A Criminal Enterprise"

Sen. Ted Cruz Talks about CWA's Rally Against the Bad Iran Deal!

Watch Ted Cruz confront protesters over Iran nuke deal

Ted Cruz debates Code Pink: Why would you want to send $100 billion to people who murder Americans?

Code Pink protesters disrupt Ted Cruz at rally

Sen. Cruz Introduces Bill Renaming Block In Front of Cuban Embassy after Oswaldo Payá

Ted Cruz on Lindsey Graham-Donald Trump Feud: ‘Who Cares?’

Cruz Urges Restraints on Supreme Court's 'Lawlessness'

Donning senatorial hat, candidate Ted Cruz holds hearing on ‘lawless’ Supreme Court

Sen. Cruz and Rep. Salmon Introduce “Kate’s Law,” the Establishing Mandatory Minimums for Illegal

Ted Cruz 'absolutely' prefers Captain Kirk to Captain Picard

Cruz On Trump: "He's Taking On The Washington Cartel"

Ted Cruz Is More of a Spider-Man Guy (interview)

Ted Cruz highlights plight of gay marriage opponents in new video

Ted Cruz Pushes to Rename Street Outside Cuban Embassy After Slain Dissident


17 posted on 07/23/2015 6:50:19 PM PDT by SoConPubbie (Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency)
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To: Reno89519

Nah, let Carly stick around. She’s rippin’ Hillary a new one.


18 posted on 07/23/2015 6:54:33 PM PDT by rikkir (Anyone still believe the 8/08 Atlantic cover wasn't 100% accurate?)
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To: Reno89519

Jeb Bush should find a day job and drop out of the race.


19 posted on 07/23/2015 7:01:29 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist (BeThe aKeystone Pipe lik Project : build it already Congress)
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To: austinaero

Hope Ted Cruz’s people here on Free Rublic from his campaign are taking notes of your wise advise.

Any Ted Cruz people here from his campaign ?


20 posted on 07/23/2015 7:05:02 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist (BeThe aKeystone Pipe lik Project : build it already Congress)
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