Posted on 07/07/2015 3:28:43 PM PDT by VinL
Look closer at Donald Trumps recent surge in the polls, and youll see the Manhattan moguls base of support is suddenly growing, but hes taking up oxygen from the sorts of conservative candidates who have in previous years drawn the excitement and attention of conservatives.
A testament to that fact: Texas senator Ted Cruz has gone out of his way to defend Trump in the wake of the firestorm surrounding the celebrity moguls recent comments on illegal immigrants, evidence that he is trying to elbow his way into the limelight and win the favor of the sizeable number of voters who are telling pollsters theyre supporting Trump. He may never rise above 15 percent in the polls, but it doesnt mean he wont affect the race.
Merely by making himself the center of attention, he has the potential to prevent other, more serious candidates on the right from gaining traction. Ted Cruz, among the more serious tier of candidates, had staked out probably the hardest line on immigration, says Rick Wilson, a Florida-based Republican consultant. He touches the same deeply angry, populist, and extremely vocal segment of the GOP that is furious over immigration, illegal and otherwise.
Trump directly draws from that hyper-populist pool, and Cruz realizes it, since he seems to be the last Republican still not knocking Trumps block off. Trump jumped from 3 percent at the end of May to 12 percent at the end of June in CNNs national poll, putting himself in second place. In those same two surveys, Cruz dropped from 8 percent to 3 percent. Marco Rubio dropped from 14 percent to 6 percent, and Scott Walker dropped from 10 percent to 6 percent. In Fox Newss national poll, Trump leapt from 4 percent to 11 percent in a three-week stretch in June. Meanwhile, Cruz dropped from 8 percent to 4 percent; Rubio gained a point, and Walker dropped from 12 percent to 9 percent. Trump directly draws from that hyper-populist pool, and Cruz realizes it, since he seems to be the last Republican still not knocking Trumps block off.
History, of course, suggests we should take Trumps early polling strength with a grain of salt. In April 2011, the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found Trump at the top of that cycles GOP field with 26 percent, ahead of Mike Huckabee at 17 percent and Mitt Romney at 15 percent. A week later, Gallups first national poll found Trump debuting in a first-place tie with Huckabee at 16 percent, while Romney languished in second at 13 percent. By mid-April, however, Trump had dropped to 8 percent in a Fox News poll, and he held steady there through early May, before announcing that he would not run for president after all.
Still, Trumps latest surge is a problem for any number of other candidates in the field: It seems pretty clear that the moguls current fan base consists of the partys most conservative voters those who have in previous years rallied behind candidates such as former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum.
Many of the same voters, in fact, who warmly welcomed Ted Cruz into the race this time around. Donald Trump is a salesman he understands that a dispirited portion of the Republican primary electorate wants to hear that mountains can be moved and battles long ago lost can be successfully re-litigated, and he cannot resist making that pitch, says Noah Rothman, an assistant editor at Commentary. Ted Cruz, on the other hand, knows full well that the claims he has made regarding the introduction of a constitutional amendment that would subject Supreme Court justices to retention elections and advising states to ignore the Courts ruling with regard to gay marriage are not only bad ideas but they are unfeasible. He, too, is pitching disaffected GOP voters.
Liz Mair, a GOP consultant who formerly worked with Scott Walker, sees Trump benefiting from his high name ID, the usual bump that occurs after a campaigns announcement, and his ability to reflect and amplify the bases anger.
There is a portion of the GOP electorate who are just mad as hell and arent going to take it anymore, who tend to show support for whoever also sounds the maddest or most inclined to stick it to the powers-that-be at any given time, says Mair. Trump is likely benefiting from a shift in support among people in the latter category away from candidates including Cruz, who is probably retaining support from conservatives who like his principles first and foremost, but may be losing out a little among the burn the house down types, she adds. Those people want a presidential candidate who essentially allows them to vent their frustrations, by proxy; and Trump has a huge megaphone to amplify said venting.
Immigration can be a winning issue for the GOP if they were smart enough to use it. American jobs for American workers cuts across partisan lines. We have the lowest labor participation rates in 38 years; wages are stagnant or declining; and yet we import over a million foreign workers a year. Does that make sense?
As far as criminal alien crime is concerned, the facts are obvious and documented. It is all in here: Criminal Alien Statistics: Information on Incarcerations, Arrests, and Costs GAO-11-187: Published: Mar 24, 2011. Publicly Released: Apr 21, 2011.
It wasn’t Perot’s fault that Mr. Read my lips New World Order lost. Perot couldn’t have affected the outcome if the GOP hadn’t nominated an elitist globalist scum with 4 names.
What we know now is that Perot was working for the Clintons to split the Republican vote - and it worked.
Now LIBERAL Trump is pretending to be Perot 2, giving the current rallying-equivalent of "that giant sucking sound" and fooling a whole new generation of conservative rubes. Sorry you need to get burned in the same way twice.
Yeah we could have had Bush 41 for a second term and Bob Dole.
Actually, Santorum is the best on immigration.
And by making that comment you prove my point that you and others are knowingly supporting said LIFELONG LIBERAL DEMOCRAT. Thanks for that admission.
Five.
“23 Prominent Democrats Who Rolled In Donald Trump’s Dough”
http://thefederalist.com/2015/06/17/23-prominent-democrats-who-rolled-in-donald-trumps-dough/
Cruz supports amnesty and wants to increase guest worker programs fourfold.
Ad hominem attacks prove nothing.
His history is not an attack. It’s his history. Have you seen my tagline?
I don’t know anything at all about what he said about Clinton, but the Oprah thing is, of course, total BS latched onto by people who have nothing else to latch onto.
It’s history out of context. Context matters.
Greta had a poll at bottom of page asking if Trump had been mistreated. 86÷ agreed that he had been.
Cruz says he is unequivocally opposed to amnesty (his exact words) at the 4:27 mark in this video dated May 30, 2015.
I didn't get burned...You did...I voted for the one who gave us some hope...You must have voted for one of the other 2 anti-American losers...
Actually the delivery is what got EVERYONES attention. A mastery of marketing
I am unaware of any conservative who has given 6-digit figures to the Clinton Foundation. Trump has.
I am unaware of any conservative who says, "people here ILLEGALLY should have 'a road to legal status' if they work hard and contribute to the country." Liberal Donald Trump said just that.
I am unaware of any conservative who wants to ban "assault weapons". There is no such thing you know. "Assault weapon" is a term created by anti-gun liberals so they could ban guns based on cosmetic appearances...and Trump, being the liberal that he is, fell for it.
I am unaware of any conservative who has said they want to extend the waiting periods to purchase a gun. Trump has.
I am unaware of any conservative who has praised as "Brilliant" gun-grabbing leftist Michael Bloomberg for "Putting His Money Where His Mouth Is" on guns.
I am unaware of any conservative saying they "probably identify more as Democrat" like Trump has.
And that is the LIFELONG LIBERAL DEMOCRAT you support.
Is that six or seven?
Cruz Tries to Claim the Middle Ground on Immigration
FYI: McCain, Obama, et. al. are all against amnesty. They use the term an earned path to citizenship which means paying a fine, learning English, and getting to the back of the line. They don't consider this amnesty, but it is. They just try to fool the gulible and the ignorant.
That's because I could give two bleeps about what a candidate SAYS. In politics, talk was cheap, is cheap, and always will be cheap.
I care about what they have done. Cruz has fought the battles. Walker has fought the battles. That's why I'm considering them. Jeb and Graham I respect because they've fought the battles too, just for the wrong side in the party.
Trump on the other hand is a publicity hound and a mouth who needs to be in the spotlight. He also donated to Hillary for her presidential run. His actions show what he is, not his words.
Hope is a Democrat codeword for voluntary powerlessness.
Hope is for chumps.
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