GOP’s Right Flank Gets Trumped

National Review ^ | 7/7/15 | Jim Geraghty

[VinL]

Look closer at Donald Trump’s recent surge in the polls, and you’ll see the Manhattan mogul’s base of support is suddenly growing, but he’s taking up oxygen from the sorts of conservative candidates who have in previous years drawn the excitement and attention of conservatives.

A testament to that fact: Texas senator Ted Cruz has gone out of his way to defend Trump in the wake of the firestorm surrounding the celebrity mogul’s recent comments on illegal immigrants, evidence that he is trying to elbow his way into the limelight and win the favor of the sizeable number of voters who are telling pollsters they’re supporting Trump. He may never rise above 15 percent in the polls, but it doesn’t mean he won’t affect the race.

Merely by making himself the center of attention, he has the potential to prevent other, more serious candidates on the right from gaining traction. ”Ted Cruz, among the more serious tier of candidates, had staked out probably the hardest line on immigration,” says Rick Wilson, a Florida-based Republican consultant. “He touches the same deeply angry, populist, and extremely vocal segment of the GOP that is furious over immigration, illegal and otherwise.

Trump directly draws from that hyper-populist pool, and Cruz realizes it, since he seems to be the last Republican still not knocking Trump’s block off.” Trump jumped from 3 percent at the end of May to 12 percent at the end of June in CNN’s national poll, putting himself in second place. In those same two surveys, Cruz dropped from 8 percent to 3 percent. Marco Rubio dropped from 14 percent to 6 percent, and Scott Walker dropped from 10 percent to 6 percent. In Fox News’s national poll, Trump leapt from 4 percent to 11 percent in a three-week stretch in June. Meanwhile, Cruz dropped from 8 percent to 4 percent; Rubio gained a point, and Walker dropped from 12 percent to 9 percent. ‘Trump directly draws from that hyper-populist pool, and Cruz realizes it, since he seems to be the last Republican still not knocking Trump’s block off.’

History, of course, suggests we should take Trump’s early polling strength with a grain of salt. In April 2011, the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found Trump at the top of that cycle’s GOP field with 26 percent, ahead of Mike Huckabee at 17 percent and Mitt Romney at 15 percent. A week later, Gallup’s first national poll found Trump debuting in a first-place tie with Huckabee at 16 percent, while Romney languished in second at 13 percent. By mid-April, however, Trump had dropped to 8 percent in a Fox News poll, and he held steady there through early May, before announcing that he would not run for president after all.

Still, Trump’s latest surge is a problem for any number of other candidates in the field: It seems pretty clear that the mogul’s current fan base consists of the party’s most conservative voters — those who have in previous years rallied behind candidates such as former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum.

Many of the same voters, in fact, who warmly welcomed Ted Cruz into the race this time around. “Donald Trump is a salesman — he understands that a dispirited portion of the Republican primary electorate wants to hear that mountains can be moved and battles long ago lost can be successfully re-litigated, and he cannot resist making that pitch,” says Noah Rothman, an assistant editor at Commentary. “Ted Cruz, on the other hand, knows full well that the claims he has made regarding the introduction of a constitutional amendment that would subject Supreme Court justices to retention elections and advising states to ignore the Court’s ruling with regard to gay marriage are not only bad ideas but they are unfeasible. He, too, is pitching disaffected GOP voters.”

Liz Mair, a GOP consultant who formerly worked with Scott Walker, sees Trump benefiting from his high name ID, the usual bump that occurs after a campaign’s announcement, and his ability to reflect and amplify the base’s anger.

“There is a portion of the GOP electorate who are just mad as hell and aren’t going to take it anymore, who tend to show support for whoever also sounds the maddest or most inclined to stick it to the powers-that-be at any given time,” says Mair. “Trump is likely benefiting from a shift in support among people in the latter category away from candidates including Cruz, who is probably retaining support from conservatives who like his principles first and foremost, but may be losing out a little among the ‘burn the house down’ types,” she adds. “Those people want a presidential candidate who essentially allows them to vent their frustrations, by proxy; and Trump has a huge megaphone to amplify said venting.”

[proust]

I could reply to every section again, but I’m just burning calories here, and no minds will change. I’ll let you have the last word and get on with my life. Take care.

[South40]

Interestingly, they usually tell you "Reagan was a Democrat too" as if they believe they are informing you.

President Reagan was my governor for 8 years. I worked on his campaign in 1976, the one he lost when Ford got the nomination. I worked on his campaign again in 1980 and he was elected. I know a lot about the man. There is little to compare when it comes to Donald Trump. That they believe so speaks volumes of their ignorance of both men.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Look, I’m just being realistic. I dealt with a lot of Trumpies from 2011-12 when he was rattling sabres about getting in....and none of them are around anymore, so embarrassed were they. He called Paul Ryan too extreme and started talking about he would work across the aisle because he’s such a good deal maker and so on....people woke up.

Some today weren’t paying attention then,

I’m glad he’s in. Trump is doing some great things and he’s saying some great things, but the man is who he is, and he’s no conservative Republican...for the vast majority of his adult life....he’s just very loud and brash about some of the issues where he’s decided, recently, to become conservative.

This is a man fooled by Obama up until 2009. I mean, I’m glad he’s seen the light, but I prefer someone who’s a little more solidly conservative.

[South40]

WHatever, Have a nice evening.

Cheers.

[C. Edmund Wright]

All that is true....I am proud that Reagan’s first primary win ever came in NC....it was 1976, and he didn’t win the nomination, but that’s where it all started....he won several more in 76 and then was pretty much the front runner in 80 as a result.

What gripes me about some of the kool aid drinkers is they see that the liberal media and the GOP E dislike Trump, and so they just quit processing any information and assume that everyone who does not favor Trump is either part of the MSM or the GOP -e. Funny thing, they’ll be embarrassed, because it’s conservatives who will go elsewhere when the man is revealed....AGAIN.

[Colonel_Flagg]

Cruz supports amnesty and wants to increase guest worker programs fourfold.

Cite on "amnesty support", please.

[kabar]

How does Cruz define amnesty? Here is what he said about how to deal with the lawbreakers:

Asked about what to do with the people here illegally, however, he stressed that he had never tried to undo the goal of allowing them to stay. “The amendment that I introduced removed the path to citizenship, but it did not change the underlying work permit from the Gang of Eight,” he said during a recent visit to El Paso. Mr. Cruz also noted that he had not called for deportation or, as Mitt Romney famously advocated, self-deportation.

Besides barring citizenship while instituting some level of legalization for those here already, Mr. Cruz has proposed increasing the number of green cards awarded annually, to 1.35 million from 675,000. He also wants to eliminate the per-country limit that he said left applicants from countries like Mexico, China and India hamstrung when they tried to gain legal entry to this country.

Cruz supports legalization, which is amnesty. I wish folks would do a little more investigating about how the politicians define amnesty. You don't need a path to citizenship to be an amnesty. Legalization to stay and work here is amnesty.

[Colonel_Flagg]

Just interested — what has Trump said or done that would qualify him to be called a clown? Just one example would suffice.

Look at his Twitter feed. You'll find many more than one.

[Colonel_Flagg]

Clown Car, right out of the DNC playbook. If not for Trump there would be no discussion about illegal aliens.

Not so. Conservatives rightly excoriated Rubio for his stand with the Gang, and Cruz has been on the right side of the issue from the beginning.

[kabar]

No no no....you see, you don’t understand “amnesty” on FR...on FR, anything other than we can deport them all this week is amnesty.

The proponents of amnesty like to present the false choice between mass deportation or a blanket amnesty. They stress the impossibility of deporting all the illegal aliens and like to use comparisons like rounding them up and placing them on trains like the Holocaust.

There is another solution and it is called attrition thru enforcement. You make it difficult for them to work here and to receive various benefits. They go home. We know it works because we have actual data from places like AZ.

When you reward something, you get more of it. We had a "one time" amnesty in 1986. The proponents said there would never be another one. The USG estimated that 1 million would apply, but the real number turned out to be 2.7 million. The process was rife with fraud. Now 29 years later we have 12 to 20 million illegal aliens. An amnesty (legalization) will cost $6.3 trillion if we have only 12 million.

[ROCKLOBSTER]

what has Trump said or done that would qualify him to be called a clown?

Well, mostly...his hair.

[Darren McCarty]

Running a mouth is not fighting a battle. I don't care that he "told the truth." He stated a problem. Big deal. What's he going to DO about the problem. He's running his mouth. I've dealt with dozens of people that were loud and said they stood for something, when they didn't do anything except talk.

Like the 80's Rush song goes - Show me don't tell me.

Cruz won a chance at my vote based on his 2nd Amendment work and budget fight. Walker got things done in Wisconsin.

[dragnet2]

Some of these folks prefer candidates who can be bought, those who’ve spent life long careers in the corrupt government machine and have lots of experience and who established themselves with the well connected.

They want things kept business as usual. Lets not upset the applecart.

[kabar]

My boi? I don't support Trump. But I do want him on the dais raising the issue of immigration. He will be the agent provocateur to flush out where the others stand.

The firestorm from the Left and the GOPe about Trump's remarks are meant to demonize anyone who raises the issue of criminal aliens and the costs, human and monetarily. It is the elephant in the room. Anyone who says the emperor has no clothes must be silenced.

Legal immigration is an even bigger problem. But only two GOP candidates have raised this issue--Santorum and Walker.

[kabar]

See my post #107.

[5th MEB]

Rubio is such a pussy, even when he wants to slam somebody he hasn’t the guts.

[conservativejoy]

Yes, I’m beginning to see that there are unique definitions for amnesty for some here. Guess they’re not voting for anyone this election. :)

[hoosiermama]

Kasich spoke of amnesty this evening on FOX. He spoke of how many UPS planes it would take and how long to fly all the illegal home!

[ROCKLOBSTER]

He spoke of how many UPS planes it would take and how long to fly all the illegal home!

Fly?

I was thinking more like horses and cattle prods.

[dragnet2]

Legal immigration is out of control as well. Professional politicians are seeding the country with Muslims, Mideasterners, Chinese and other foreign nationals from all over the planet.

We are the world's dumping ground. It's absolutely true.

America outside of hardship cases etc, should have enacted a 10 year moratorium on all legal immigration years ago. At this point in our history, we do not need more people jammed into our towns and cities taking more jobs or social services. Those services have been choked off and looted too, again thanks to the professional politicians.

This is really a no brainer.