2 Steps Forward, 1 Step Back For Jobs As Fed Watches [Labor Participation Hits 38-year Low]

Investors Busniness Daily ^ | 07/02/2015 | ANDREA RIQUIER,

[expat_panama]

Job gains stayed healthy in June and the unemployment rate hit a seven-year low, but workforce participation skidded and wage growth remained anemic, muddling views of the labor market for a central bank seeking clarity.

Employers added 223,000 jobs, the Labor Department said Thursday, about as many as economists had forecast, and the jobless rate fell to 5.3% from 5.5%. The number of people working part-time because they can't find full-time work fell, as did the number of long-term unemployed.

But 432,000 people left the workforce, and the labor force participation rate fell to 62.6%, the lowest since 1977. Wage growth, which economists had expected would accelerate to an annual rate of 2.3%, instead dipped to 2%.

"It was a touch disappointing," said David Rosenberg, chief economist for Gluskin Sheff. "Nice jobs, shame about the wages."

Rosenberg and other analysts have been consistently frustrated by the sluggish pace of income growth in the current economic expansion. Most think stronger wage gains are critical for more robust growth, to bolster everything from retail sales to home purchases.

Still No 'Smoking Gun'

That's a view Federal Reserve policymakers share. While most central bank watchers believe the first rate hike will come in September, Rosenberg has long believed policymakers' bias toward caution will delay "liftoff" until 2016.

"Only a fool would rule out September," he said. "But based on what they're telling us, I don't see the smoking gun. Does the Fed have runaway economic growth that it has to lean against, burgeoning inflationary pressure, an asset bubble? The answer is no."

Alan Levenson, chief economist for T. Rowe Price, was a bit...

[Jack Hydrazine]

David Stockman Shock Blog: The Real Unemployment Rate Is 42.9%
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3306261/posts

[expat_panama]

OK, we're supposed to have the day off but I couldn't resist.  fwiw, smart traders took the weekend off yesterday (unchanged, lower volume) so HAPPY 4^TH JULY WEEKEND!!!

[expat_panama]

tx! Heard rush mentioning it but econ’s not Rush’s forte...

[Varsity Flight]

Greece + ExtortionCare = U.S.

[grania]

I finally understand. Less people working means a lower unemployment rate in Wonderland. Head is spinning from that fall down the rabbit hole!

Have a great holiday.

[WilliamofCarmichael]

Labor force participation rate lowest since the 1970s.. true but from the end of W.W.II through 1976 the rate was lower than that.

From BLS

• Civilian noninstitutional population: Persons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, who are not inmates of institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.
  
  
• Civilian labor force: All persons in the civilian noninstitutional population classified as either employed or unemployed. [I assume part-time is counted.]

I can see following W.W.II that labor force participation would shrink.

Biggest factor would be females not in the labor force. Can you imagine that.. one spouse working was enough to support a family and pay off the mortgage -- it wasn't just in the movies.

Bureau of Labor Statistics

These tables can be obtained here: go to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Requires Java. Make your selections. I asked for quarterly data and took the fourth (or last available) quarter annualized data from each table.

[Jack Hydrazine]

But David Stockman forte is the economy. Here is the article Rush mentioned.

The Warren Buffett Economy——Why Its Days Are Numbered (Part 4)
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-warren-buffett-economy-why-its-days-are-numbered-part-4/

Quote from article:
“At the present time, there are 210 million adult Americans between the ages of 16 and 68—to take a plausible measure of the potential work force. That amounts to 420 billion potential labor hours, if we accept the convention that all adults are at least theoretically capable of holding a full-time job (2,000 hours/year) and pulling their share of society’s need for production and work effort.

By contrast, during 2014 only 240 billion hours were actually supplied to the US economy, according to the BLS estimates. Technically, therefore, there were 180 billion unemployed labor hours, meaning that the real unemployment rate was 42.9%, not 5.5%!”

[ThePatriotsFlag]

Unfortunately, with the real unemployment rate at 42%, this discussion rivals global warming arguments, using the wrong numbers in the premise destroys the reason for the argument. Our government lies equally on employment and global warming. I’m an “Unemployment Denier” and proud of it.

[quantumman]

Stockman is correct. Rush did an analysis of his 42.9 % number the other day and said there is no number coming out of Obama’s BLS that is not a lie. There are 94 million unemployed people in the US. The media simply refuse to report the bad news. This is why interest rates remain so low and inflation non-existent - the economy is in the ditch. GDP was negative in the first quarter and I predict will be negative for the quarter just ended June 30.

[expat_panama]

unrelated thread: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3307278/posts?page=1

[Stand Watch Listen]

David Stockman Shock Blog: The Real Unemployment Rate Is 42.9%.....Rush Limbaugh.com ^ | June 30, 2015

David Stockman: "There Are No Markets, Just a Raging Casino" ……David Stockman Contra Corner ^ | April 27, 2015

David Stockman Explains The Keynesian State-Wreck Ahead - Sundown In America…Zero Hedge ^ | 10-5-13 |

56,085,000 Women Not in Labor Force; Participation Rate Declines to 56.7%....Cybercast News Service ^ | July 2, 2015

Part-Time Jobs Surge By 161,000; Full-Time Jobs Tumble By 349,000

Since 2007 The US Has Lost 1.4 Million Manufacturers, Gained 1.4 Million Waiters And Bartenders

Factory Orders Scream Recession: Annual Drop Biggest Since 2008

[expat_panama]

Oh absolutely!  What I meant was even when Rush can't explain or understand something well enough the point is often still there.

[ThunderSleeps]

223k jobs? Well, even if I believed that number - which, coming from bammy’s administration I don’t - that doesn’t keep up with the roughly 238k people the US population grew by in that same month.

[USNBandit]

The other factor in the labor report is that it is based upon two different surveys. The jobs added comes from an employer survey where they call a number of large employers and ask about job creation. The unemployment rate is generated from the household survey. That can generate conflicting numbers.

I think from our personal experiences we all know that the job market stinks. It has probably dominated the discussion at holiday dinner tables for the past 7 years.

[P.O.E.]

According to my calculations (+200K jobs, -400K in workforce) that comes to 1 step forward, 2 steps back.

But what do I know?

[PGalt]

Let’s amplify the GRRRRRRREAT NEWS that…”THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FELL”.

WARNING! WARNING! WARNING! (only about 200 years old)…

“Everything about socialism is sham and affectation.” - 23.11 Ch23 Evil; Economic Harmonies; Bastiat

What did the students learn this year upon graduation from elementary school, high school, college, Indoctrination U?

More recently (1963)...

17. Get control of the schools. Use them as transmission belts for socialism…

20. Infiltrate the press.

21. Gain control of key positions in radio, TV...

http://www.uhuh.com/nwo/communism/comgoals.htm

It takes some villains to raze a republic?

[WilliamofCarmichael]

Leaving the work force? Is that a kind of leakage?

Commenting on the "jobless" recovery an Oct 17th 2003 article in Morgan Stanley's Global Stephen Roach wrote of "Imported Productivity" and "income leakage" vis-à-vis the business cycle recovery (the one starting in late 2001) compared to recoveries of the past.

"The gap between the current cycle and the norm of earlier cycles works out to a shortfall of about $320 billion in real terms, or 4.4% of the current level of real disposable personal income...

"Sourcing demand through low-cost, offshore labor input has become an increasingly important tactic to enhance the operating efficiency of US businesses... the American workforce is not sharing the benefits."

Scream "Protectionist!" all you want but huge numbers of jobs going off shore and 24 million foreign workers here should be considered.

Bu that does not let Obama off the hook.

If you are willing to look around a wall of numbers you can see that under Obama the economy is even worse than "the mess Bush left." Though some of the millions of jobs lost while our health care system destruction had priority some of those jobs have been replaced with part-time and temp jobs. Compare current president and past presidents using federal government economic data.

[PGalt]

But what do I know?

You know a lot (witness post scrutinizing title) as does every FReeper on this thread.

The amplification of the knowledge is drowned out by the Marxist megaphones and left unprocessed by their deaf drones.

Thanks for posting.

[PGalt]

Perhaps Obamacare can “take care of” some of those older folks (slackers) that are pushing the labor participation rate down. The BLS could send an email (via the Hillaryous Clinton server) to the VA, too.

We Grubered some folks.