Posted on 06/09/2015 11:08:17 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
A leftover from yesterday via Howie Carr and Gravis Marketing. We all knew the great sighing falling-in-line for Bush 8.0 would come eventually. We just didn’t know it would happen this soon.
Nah, I’m just kidding. This is an outlier. Isn’t it?
Carly Fiorina ahead of Chris Christie and Ted Cruz in New Hampshire? C’mon, I … can totally believe that, actually, given the state’s fondness for outsiders and “mavericks.” In fact, for a supposed outlier, the only number in this poll that’s strikingly out of sync with other recent polls of New Hampshire is Jeb’s. He’s fully 10 points higher than he was in Bloomberg’s poll of the state last month. Maybe not coincidentally, the other noticeable gainer is Donald Trump, who was at five points two months ago in a WMUR poll, then at eight points in Bloomberg’s poll in May, and now at 12 points, good for fourth place right behind Scott Walker and Rand Paul. What Jeb and Trump have in common is brand-name recognition: It may be that some New Hampshire Republicans are finally just tuning into the race, are barely familiar with any of the candidates, and are seizing on the names they know when pollsters dial them up to ask who they’re supporting. That’s the only theory I can come up with (apart from the outlier theory) to explain how a guy like Bush, who’s run a dismal non-campaign for the past six months, might be seeing his support in New Hampshire grow regardless.
Speaking of which, riddle me this: What problem with Jeb’s campaign was yesterday’s shake-up at the top supposed to address? As far as I can tell, there’s no problem with the Bush 2016 effort writ large. They’re raising truckloads of cash, they’re touring the early states, they’re doing plenty of interviews, etc. The problem with Bush 2016 is Bush. How does a new campaign manager solve that? Or is this a case, as in sports, where you can’t fire the players when they underperform so you’re forced to fire the manager instead?
“I’m still for him,” says an adviser to Jeb Bush’s presidential campaign, “but it hasn’t gone very well so far, and we’ve got to face that. It’s going to take some remedying.”…
“They [the donors] said that in January, Bush laid out a scenario of where he would be by now, and it has not remotely happened,” the operative recalled. “They said the plan was for Bush to use this period to emerge as frontrunner, and launch as decisive frontrunner with the model, interestingly enough, being George W. Bush in 1999. But that hasn’t happened, obviously, and I expect this bloodletting is to show that they are aware and trying to take steps to address.”…
“He hasn’t been able to break out from this notion that he’s the third Bush,” says the adviser. “And he’s got to.”
I’m thinking he’s not going to break out from the notion that he’s the third Bush for the simple reason that he is, in fact, the third Bush. I’m more intrigued, though, by that bit about Jeb supposedly reassuring donors in January that he’d be a “decisive frontrunner” by the summer. Can that be true? Even with all of his fundraising, he had to realize that this field is loaded, far more than so what Dubya faced in 1999, and that he’d bear a heavy burden in Bush fatigue that his brother never had to deal with. If Jeb is so deluded about the state of the GOP electorate that he thought he’d go wire to wire to win this race then his problems are bigger than any personnel change can solve. Baffling.
Exit question: Never mind Jeb. Should Scott Walker be worried about the trendline in New Hampshire? Yeah, yeah — “it’s early!” — but even so, New Hampshirites appear to have dimmed a bit on Walker as they’ve gotten to know him better. Several polls between February and April had him at 20 percent or higher in the state, including 23 percent from Gravis Marketing on February 2. Gravis’s next poll, in March, had him slipping to 19 percent. The one after that, in April, saw him slip again to 16 percent. Now he’s at 13 percent. Granted, some erosion was expected as top-tier rivals like Rubio entered the race, but if you look at the trends in RCP’s table, you’ll see that Rubio is only a few points higher in NH than he was in February. Meanwhile, another Walker rival, Chris Christie, has slipped several points, which you would expect to benefit Walker. Looks to me like it’s Trump, of all people, who might be eating into some of Walker’s support. Maybe New Hampshirites were looking for a “not Bush” outsider candidate when they first warmed to Walker, then gradually drifted towards the guy from “The Apprentice” instead once he made noise about getting in. What a glorious outcome it’ll be for conservatives if Jeb ends up edging past the guy who crushed PEUs in Wisconsin because Trump was strong enough to play spoiler.
Update: Huh?
Jeb: "I don't know about the change in the campaign team; guess I'll find out about that when I get home."
— Eli Stokols (@EliStokols) June 9, 2015
NH has an OPEN primary...
Yeah, sure.
Polls are used to manipulate opinion, not reflect it.
This poll is a fraud from GOPe trying to push Jeb Bush.
79% Not Bush
21% Bush
So, they want a fake Democrat.
Another trip around the hamster wheel for conservatives.
The Bush model is probably to win NH and then FL and either be the front runner, or one of two...then spend in the next few states to oblivion to destroy their top opponent. If I remember, Super Tuesday is shortly after FL, which is a media battle. Hopefully Walker can catch him in NH (or another good options rises - Cruz, etc). Obviously still very early for these polls to mean much, but his big lead there is telling of the strategy.
It’s walker or Cruz or I’m not voting.
I will never vote for another lizard.
http://creekside1.blogspot.com/2013/06/the-hitchhikers-guide-to-democracy.html
Ditto.
What about the Anybody but Jeb count?
Sampling Bias favoring Amnesty Jeb. Undersamples Independents and Rats. Oversamples Republicans.
Republican
This Poll: 57% 2012 Primary Electorate 49% +8
Independent
This Poll: 42% 2012 Primary Electorate 47% -5
Democrat
This Poll: 1% 2012 Primary Electorate 4% -3
If you adjust the biased poll sample for the actual electorate composition, it’s more likely 90% Anybody but Jeb.
I think we conservatives should learn from our wrongly held disbelief in polls. The 2012 national election should have taught us that the polls are correct within their margin of error. A lot of once prominent political commentators reputations took a big hit when they claimed the then polls were in error. I can accept the claim that it is early and voter opinion has not yet stabilized.
>> “He hasn’t been able to break out from this notion that he’s the third Bush,” says the adviser. “And he’s got to.”
How can he? He >>IS<< the turd Bush!!! Facts is facts.
Nobody gives a crap what New Hampshire thinks. It is a liberal state, way overdue to be toppled from it's self appointed position of arbiter of what the rest of the GOP needs.
All other Republican Candidates 79%
Mostly it's name recognition, nothing more.
This poll skewed the numbers for Jeb by oversampling Republicans by 8 points and undersampling Independents by 5 points.
All of the other polls in NH show a 3 or 4 way race and are using the correct sampling of the primary electorate.
If this poll didn’t oversample Republicans and undersample Independents, it wouldn’t be an outlier.
Bush is GOP suicide. I will personally vote for Hillary if Jeb is the nominee. I would rather see it crash than once more be put into the hands of milquetoast moderates.
Name recognition plus and 8 point oversampling of Republicans versus the primary electorate composition to favor Jeb.
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