Posted on 05/08/2015 12:58:14 PM PDT by drewh
Tom Brady's offseason might extend until 2016 if the NFL decides to drop the hammer on the Patriots quarterback and at least one report is indicating that the league could slam the hammer down hard.
According to the Miami Herald, Brady could be suspended for up to one year thanks to the part he played in Deflategate.
"Everything is being studied. Everything is being considered," an NFL source told the Herald.
Brady's punishment could end up being a shorter suspension, but the source told the Herald not to dismiss the possibility of a year-long suspension.
The Patriots quarterback, along with locker attendant Jim McNally and equipment assistant John Jastremski are the three people most likely to be disciplined, according to ESPN.
The 243-page Wells report found that Brady was "at least generally aware of the inappropriate activities of McNally and Jastremski involving the release of air from Patriots game balls."
In the report, Wells also noted that Brady refused to turn over his phone and other personal information for investigative purposes.
Brady's refusal to help the investigation could end up being one of the big reasons he's hit with a potentially big suspension.
In the NFL's Policy on Integrity of the Game & Enforcement of Competitive Rules, the league notes that "Failure to cooperate in an investigation shall be considered conduct detrimental to the League and will subject the offending club and responsible individual(s) to appropriate discipline."
Brady's decision to not fully cooperate in the investigation was duly noted in the Wells report.
"Brady's refusal to provide us with his own records on relevant topics, in response to our tailored requests, limited the evidence available for our review and analysis," the report said.
Whatever Brady's punishment ends up being, it will likely be handed down sometime in the near future.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbssports.com ...
That’s weird. Thanks for the info. Perhaps this problem could have been avoided if they didn’t switch balls.
Allow each team to inflate their own balls to whatever poundage they prefer then there will be no controversy.......
No, the MSM and the NFL does..............You know, destroy the target based on heresay since the allegation of wrong doing is worse than the unsubstantiated facts.
Reread the report, according to it only one guy handled the balls and claimed he was in the bathroom alone for 100 seconds with the balls.
I don’t know I am more worried about so many other things than this.
A few games suspendson and a fine is about it.
He included fumbles that players made while on special teams' duty.
Special teams' fumbles were with "neutral" footballs NOT supplied (read "doctored" or potentially so) by individual teams. Special teams involve footballs from a distinct set-aside pooling of such balls.
Therefore, I "fixed" that by conducting my own analysis -- removing special teams' fumbles.
Mine was also a "tad" more comprehensive (than Sharp's) because my analysis includes players like Kevin Faulk, who had over 430 "touches" post 2006...and hence, makes for a worthwhile comparison to how he did after 2006 vs. 1999-2006 seasons.
So, here was MOST of my Feb. 25 Freeper Vanity I posted:
*****************************************************
How might a statistical analyst give his “best case” that leprechauns are indeed at large in New England?
Well, what if I told you that the Patriots' defense fumbled the ball...
...more often in (take your pick which of these following seasons) – 2003, 2002, 2001, 1999 than the Patriots' running backs did rushing the ball in 2007 – even including all three playoff games?
...Or their defense fumbled the ball as often in 2001 as the Patriots' running backs did rushing the ball for the entire 2007 and 2008 seasons combined (35 games including three playoff games)?!
...Or their defense fumbled the ball as much combining regular seasons 1999-2003 as did the Patriots running backs' rushing the ball combining regular seasons 2007-2008 and 2010-2011?
(Now you know what the job description of a New England leprechaun is every pre-game!)
Beyond that, just compare the 2006-2007 seasons and broader patterns (either 2000-2014, or 2003-2014)
| Category | 2006 NE Season | 2007 NE Season |
| Overall fumbles | 31 (27 regular season) | 17 (14 regular season) |
| Rushing fumbles by Patriot running backs | 7 (19 games, including 3 playoffs) | 0 (19 games, including 3 playoffs) |
| Fumble rate per game | Avg team: 1.5 vs. NE's 1.6 | Avg team: 1.6 vs. NE's 0.8 (Less fumbles by half!) Note: Even indoor based teams averaged 1.55 fumbles per game) |
| Brady's Completion % | 61.8% | 68.9% |
| Fumbles by Teams Per Game | ||||
| 2003-2006 NE | 2003-2006 Other 31 teams | 2007-2014 NE | 2007-2014 Other 23 Outdoor teams | 2007-2014 Indoor-based teams (8) |
| 1.46 | 1.6 | 0.96 [this is improvement of 1 less fumble every 2 games vs. previous NE teams] | 1.46 [this means one more fumble every 2 games than NE] | 1.29 [this means one more fumble every 3 games than NE] |
So, for certain NFL attorneys who may want to delve into local Boston lore, what pot o' gold nuggets of evidence seems to suggest shenanigans on the loose going back about 8 years?
Note: before assessing chart below, it might be of help to review Warren Sharp's original chart on 19 of these players below:
* Jan. 28, 2015 “update”: New England Patriots Fumble More Often When Playing for Other Teams)
* See also: January 22, 2015: The New England Patriots Prevention of Fumbles is Nearly Impossible and...
* January 23 2015 Slate: Dumb Luck: The New England Patriots’ prevention of fumbles is nearly impossible.
Indicators of 'Deflategate' & 'Ballghazi' as Urban Legend |
Red Flags in Pat Stats Suggesting Shenanigans |
| 1. Warren Sharp's analytics case of embellished fumbles (what was he thinking – or not thinking – anyway?) Sharp treated all fumbles as “equal” & “relevant” research. But, alas, they aren't. Simply put, if a team is accused of doctoring their own footballs, & if special teams use a common pool of balls providing no competitive advantage, then special teams' fumbles are irrelevant & need special segmenting from all analytical charts. This impacted Sharp's charts how? One Sharp chart lists 19 players who were either former Patriots or played elsewhere prior to coming to New England. These 19 lost 124 overall fumbles. The problem is three dozen fumbles occurred during returning a punt or kick. (That's 29% of fumbles in list). | 1. The “however” to this is it's an “equal-opportunity” application mistake: On the other side of the ledger – those tracking Pat fumbles 2007-2014 – 9 of 39 fumbles were likewise special teams (23% vs. 29% on other side). In other words: Most of fumbles removed from the balance sheet prove to be “a wash.” All it does is to heighten the number of touches on each comparison side per fumble. It is true -- for sake of only including 'relevant' fumbles as it applies to this case study -- that Sharp's "44 touches per fumble" & "73 touches per fumble is a myth. The actual touches are much higher on both comparative sides. Also, when playoff stats are added to Sharp's charts along with one additional measurement – RB Kevin Faulk – it fleshes out an even a greater “measurement”: The lopsided “touches per fumble” ratio Sharp arrived at – 98 – 67 among those 19 players & 107-53 among the five players with 300+ Patriot touches...grows to 145-87 among 20 players & an astounding 190-70 split among 8 players with 274+ touches (Wes Welker, Laurence Maroney, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Faulk, Danny Woodhead, Sammy Morris, LeGarrette Blount, & Randy Moss) |
| 1a. How did (1) above play out? Wes Welker, for example, returned punts/kickoffs for both Pats & other teams: Therefore, half of his Pat fumbles were irrelevant to case study & ALL of his non-Patriot fumbles were likewise irrelevant. Same with Brandon Tate re: his non-Patriot fumbles (all irrelevant). One would think that including Tate's 11 fumbles in only 35 touches would greatly skew the results to work against Sharp's hypothesis. A dozen other fumbles were likewise removed on the non Pats' side: (Amendola, 5; Moss, 3; Stallworth, 2; + Jordan & Gaffney, 1 apiece). | 1a. How the above played out on Pat stat side '07-14: Welker returned punts & kicks for the Pats, too: So half of his fumbles were special teams' related. Amendola & Morris also had each had a special teams' fumbles removed. And tho Sharp didn't include Kevin Faulk in his chart because Faulk only played for the Pats, Faulk is perhaps THE most interesting case study, but not for special teams' sake (Faulk had one special teams' fumble removed from his stat total; beyond that, he only fumbled once in his last five seasons with the Pats - & it was a reception, not a rush. By comparison, in the alleged pre-Ballghazi era, Faulk fumbled it 24 times (4 special teams) over eight seasons: 13 rushing, 7 after catches. IoW, he averaged 1 'relevant' fumble every 35 touches thru 2006; suddenly it mushroomed to 1 'relevant' fumble every 433 touches 2007-2011. IoW, Kevin Faulk himself is the face -- the poster boy -- for 'ballghazi shenanigans'! |
| 2. 'Relevant' fumbles & fumble ratios: When the raw fumbles #s are scrubbed & only 'relevant ones remain, 8 of 19 players Sharp analyzed don't match the “we fumbled more wearing non-Patriot shirts” narrative: Danny Woodhead, Fred Taylor, Brandon Lloyd, Brandon Lafell, Deion Branch & Lamont Jordan all have similar fumble ratio numbers no matter which team they've played for; + Wes Welker, Randy Moss – when properly stripped of those special teams' fumbles – even showed significantly more of a penchant to fumble when playing for the Patriots. | 2. Collective stats for 11 Patriots 2007-2014 show only 1 fumble every 472 touches! While some of the Patriot fumble “miserliness” 07-14 are indeed attributable to guys who tend not to fumble often (beyond special teams at least) – Welker, Woodhead, & Laurence Maroney. Yet when the other 15 Rbs & Wide-outs are surveyed, 'twas an “almost impossible” scenario to look @ the stats of 11 of them & realize these 11 combined for almost 1900 touches between them during those 8 seasons, & yet they fumbled only four times: 1889 touches & only four collective fumbles by Green-Ellis, Faulk, Branch, Taylor, Amendola, Lloyd, Lafell, Jordan, Gaffney, Evans, Stallworth – that's only one fumble per 472 touches |
| 3. A fumble-by-fumble review turns up that the players most responsible for Pat fumbles were quarterbacks! “NFL Fumble Pie” is cut up into 5 pieces: Fumbles by Qbs, Rbs, Receivers, Special teams, & the occasional post-interception fumble. For 1999-2006, Pats Qbs made 45% of fumbles; that was reduced to 33% 2007-2014. Sharp (& others including myself) don't want to include Qbs for analysis purposes because they already tend to have an untucked ball in most play situations. The key point here, though, is between 07-14, Pats Qbs + special teams accounted for over half of all team fumbles, leaving less room to “shenanigize” anything | 3. The so-called “flip side” of this argument is actually the same argument: Yes, review the fumbles to see who was actually making them, or rather, no longer coming even close to making them. How is it that the Patriot Rbs averaged less than 3 fumbles per season 2007-2014? How is it than when you include playoff games, the Pats average a rushing fumble by a RB or wide-out about once every six games? How did the Pats go through '07 –19 games including playoffs – without its Rbs managing to fumble the ball on a rushing play? (Kevin Faulk had one fumble – but even that came on pass he caught) |
| 4. If you're trying to explain why Brady had his sudden 2007 completion % surge, look no further than Randy Moss. Moss had previously had two 100+ reception years; his new presence in '07 accounted for 98 receptions. | 4. Indeed, personnel are very important considerations. And it's personnel breakdown charts like the one below – a corrective revision of Warren Sharp's – listing 19 players that makes the 'Ballghazi' case. (Note: added Kevin Faulk as a 20th player because Faulk had over 430 touches post 2006 & that can be readily compared to his 1999-2006 Patriot seasons where he had 700 touches) – that also provides a “face” to this “ghost” of “Ballghazi.” |
| Fumbles-per-touch analytics | ||
| STATISTICAL BOUNDARIES | COLOFORNIAN'S ANALYTICAL BOUNDARIES | WARREN SHARP'S ANALYTICAL BOUNDARIES |
| Are only 'relevant' fumbles -- non-special teams' fumbles -- included in fumbles per touch comparisons? | YES | NO (Sharp's are accumulative) |
| Are playoff stats included in 'relevant' fumbles by touch comparisons? | YES | NO (Sharp uses only season stats despite very controversy arising in playoff context) |
| Are pre-2007 Patriots stats included in 'relevant fumbles by touch comparisons? | YES | NO (Sharp didn't include Kevin Faulk as he only played for NE; & he didn't use Deion Branch, Ben Watson & Laurence Maroney pre-2007 Pat stats: Yet these stats are relevant for comparison sake) |
| Left side: NE PLAYER: 07-14 | Right side: NON-NE PLAYER + NE PLAYERS PRE-2007 | |||||||||
| NAME | RECEPTIONS | RUSHES | TOUCHES | 'RELEVANT' FUMBLES* | 'RELEVANT' FUMBLES PER TOUCH | RECEPTIONS | RUSHES | TOUCHES | 'RELEVANT' FUMBLES | 'RELEVANT' FUMBLES PER TOUCH |
| Wes Welker | 741 | 21 | 762 | 6 relevant (other 6 on special teams) | 1 per 127 | 237 | 1 | 238 | 0 relevant (all 13 on special teams) | Less than 1 per 238 |
| Laurence Maroney | 45 | 644 | 689 | 5 | 1 per 138 | 5 | 67 | 72 | 3 | 1 per 24 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 31 | 557 | 588 | 0 | Less than 1 per 588 | 28 | 517 | 545 | 5 | 1 per 109 |
| Kevin Faulk | 181 | 252 | 433 | 1 relevant (1 special team) | 1 per 433 | 301 | 700 | 1001 | 20 relevant (4 special teams) | 1 per 50 |
| Danny Woodhead | 104 | 285 | 389 | 3 | 1 per 130 | 160 | 95 | 255 | 2 | 1 per 128 |
| Sammy Morris | 52 | 335 | 387 | 3 relevant (1 special team) | 1 per 129 | 117 | 402 | 519 | 8 | 1 per 65 |
| LaGarrette Blount | 6 | 275 | 281 | 3 | 1 per 94 | 27 | 491 | 518 | All 10 relevant | 1 per 52 |
| Randy Moss | 271 | 3 | 274 | All 5 relevant | 1 per 55 | 765 | 23 | 788 | 8 relevant by comparison (3 special teams) | 1 per 98 |
| Deion Branch | 130 | 0 | 63 | 0 | Less than 1 per 63 | 452 | 11 | 463 | 1 relevant (2 special teams by comparison) | 1 per 463 |
| Fred Taylor | 4 | 108 | 112 | 1 | 1 per 112 | 293 | 2555 | 2848 | All 26 relevant by comparison | 1 per 110 |
| Danny Amendola | 90 | 2 | 92 | 0 relevant (1 special team) | Less than 1 per 92 | 196 | 12 | 208 | 5 relevant by comparison (5 special teams) | 1 per 42 |
| Ben Watson | 91 | 1 | 92 | 2 | 1 per 46 | 210 | 1 | 211 | 6 | 1 per 35 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 86 | 0 | 86 | 0 | Less than 1 per 86 | 325 | 1 | 326 | 4 | 1 per 82 |
| Brandon Lafell | 83 | 2 | 85 | 1 | 1 per 85 | 171 | 7 | 178 | 2 | 1 per 89 |
| Lamont Jordan | 0 | 80 | 80 | 1 | 1 per 80 | 163 | 856 | 1019 | 7 relevant (1 special team) | 1 per 146 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 78 | 0 | 78 | 0 | Less than 1 per 78 | 394 | 9 | 403 | 3 relevant (1 special team) | 1 per 134 |
| Heath Evans | 8 | 48 | 56 | 0 | less than 1 per 56 | 59 | 121 | 180 | 3 | 1 per 60 |
| Donte Stallworth | 55 | 1 | 56 | 0 | Less than 1 per 56 | 280 | 20 | 300 | 3 relevant (2 special teams) | 1 per 100 |
| Brandon Tate | 24 | 6 | 30 | 1 | 1 per 30 | 31 | 4 | 35 | 0 relevant (11 special teams by comparison) | Less than 1 per 35 |
| TOTALS | 2080 | 2620 | 4700 | 32 | 1 in 145 | 4214 | 5993 | 10107 | 116 | 1 in 87 |
| 8 Players' collective totals who had 274+ touches for Patriots | 1431 | 2372 | 3803 | 20 | 1 per 190 | Non-NE or Early NE | 1640 | 2296 | 56 | 1 per 70 |
No doubt. I’m talking about the severity of the punishment. I can see up to a four game suspension but anything more is just to mollify the press.
Well, obviously, the NFL wasn't "worried" 'bout this chicanery, either...which is why when it popped up AFTER the Colts warned them PREGAME that it would happen, in fact, it DID happen!
So, the NFL realized that when teams could predict the Patriots would do this...and they'd go ahead and do it...that somethin' FINALLY needed to be done.
If you look @ the stat charts provided in post #87, 'tis quite obvious the Patriots have been taking advantage of this situation since 2007.
I mean, c'mon...
The very first season that the Patriots could begin supplying their own footballs, Brady's completion percentage shoots up from 61.8% in 2006 to a whopping 68.9% in 2007. (Of course, he had Randy Moss for three-plus seasons starting 2007).
You see, it wasn't so much that less-PSI footballs assisted Brady in this throwing...'twas actually easier for his receivers to hang onto the ball!
And, as for Randy Moss...of course, the Randy Moss-as-new-receiver apologists tend to argue in a circle: Because the triple-digit reception catcher Moss in 2007 only caught 42 passes in 2006 with the Raiders. (And of course, the “circle” argument is: 'Well, Moss had Tom Brady!')
But tell us: Why was Brady completing only 60%, 61%, 62%, 63% in all those years of 2000-2006? (It's not like Brady wasn't already an excellent QB). After all, didn't the Patriots take Super Bowls in 2002, 2004, and 2005?
Beyond that, as is embedded in post #87:
(Yeah, 'tis a few Irish shenanigans goin' on in that city...'tis not'in' new)
One ball every 8-9 seconds is somehow problematic for a guy who's been preparing footballs for games for years?
If these balls were already on the lower allowed PSI level, it wouldn't take much to dip them to desired level...
From a passing perspective, you REALLY don't want flat footballs!!! (Especially for deeper passes)
So we're not talking about footballs devoid of air.
Certainly, the Pats -- knowing the wet weather report -- no doubt wanted a lower PSI level than e'en normal chicanery for the benefit of its receivers.
This is pure BS, who really cares anyway, inflategate is over and done with, ancient history, this is just more obama/clintoon misdirection and distraction. Why now? Roger G. is feeling the heat form Der Fuhrer Soetero to distract the populace from the real issues. I’ve never been a Brady fan but I am now “cheating” or no, c’mon, give me a break.
Much ado about nothing.
Is Vegas going to demand payback for the Super Bowl bets for the Patriots to win? I don’t think so, case closed!
According to sources within Patriots HQ, Bill Belichick has already reached out to Doug Flutie to take over for Brady during his absence.
Flutie is arranging a leave of absence with his current broadcasting company and will be the Patriots starting QB until Brady can return.
This entire ruse is stupid as hell. If the NFL has limits on footballs, shouldn’t the NFL being in charge of supplying the footballs?
I could care less whether the Patriots win or lose but blaming a quarterback for “bad” footballs for an entire game looks pretty stupid for a multi-billion dollar industry.
There's NFL rules about mouthguards being worn, proper pads to be worn, helmet standards, the amount of glareware coming down the front of helmets, etc.
So, by logical extension, you're saying you want "NFL Equipmnent Central" with an NFL Equipment Czar runnin' the equipment show for all 32 teams in 32 cities, runnin' 'round & taking orders...
...& then when the revolving door gets-going (replacement players for injured ones), you want them to instantaneously order everything a replacement player needs & have it arrive so they can sign one day & be equipped by NFL Central the next day?
Ludicrous.
Your logic, if extended, is no way to equip a team for football...relying upon some NFL equipment bureaucracy...
No wonder we don't have people holding D.C. & our state capitals accountable! (It seems they tend to agree with expanding whatever bureauracies they can!)
Are you saying that the teams on both sides used these footballs and the refs handled them on every play?
I watch baseball and the umpire behind the plate examines every ball.
You got a problem with that?
Why is a single player being excoriated when the entire damn game was played without complaint?
45-7 due to under-inflated balls? You are nuts.
BTW, YOU are the one that thinks it takes a government to control football. I said nothing of the kind.
This entire story is bullshit. Some people have an agenda to hurt the NFL. Grow up.
It’s a left agenda. Understand it.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.