Election 2015: Row over second independence referendum warning

BBC News ^ | April 25, 2015 | unattributed

[SunkenCiv]

Campaigning in Renfrewshire, he said the nationalists want an SNP vote in the general election in order to "force" a second poll.

Launching the SNP's "women's pledge", Nicola Sturgeon said this election was "not about independence". Meanwhile the Lib Dems set out plans for green laws and the Scottish Conservatives focused on jobs.

As the penultimate weekend of campaigning got under way, SNP leader Ms Sturgeon joined female activists and actor and campaigner Elaine C Smith in Glasgow to launch the party's women's pledge, which commits the SNP and its members to delivering policies that promote equality...

As part of its women's pledge, the SNP said it would:

- Support women into work by increasing free childcare, raising the minimum wage, ending zero hours contracts, and ending the gender pay gap

- Invest in women by continuing free education and increasing apprenticeships

- Ensure that no girl grows up or woman lives in fear of abuse and violence

[SunkenCiv]

Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown has said the SNP have a "chilling" plan for a second referendum on independence.

[SunkenCiv]

Nigel Farage on target to win: Poll puts him NINE points ahead of Tory rival
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3282572/posts

Victory for Ukip: BBC backs down and gives Farage his own TV show after debate fix row
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3280547/posts

more topic ideas:

Election 2015: Labour plan to stop ‘massive’ rent increases
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32468997

Election 2015: Miliband issues warning about healthcare under Tories
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/apr/25/election-2015-live-cameron-unveils-vision-for-black-asian-and-minority-ethnic-communities

humorous interlude:

Mock The Week — Ed Miliband
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PAgTpyRX-w

[Nextrush]

The major parties in the UK are invested in fear campaigns right now to keep voters from choosing UKIP.

Hence all the fear of the SNP and Labour forming some sort of alliance.

I think we could see a hung parliament leading to an official Uniparty government in the UK involving Conservative and Labour.

I guess the fight now is to see which of the Uniparties finishes first to get the PM slot in the new national unity government.

[mrsmel]

If I were an English real conservative, I'd want Scotland to hit the road, just to have a chance to get a truly conservative government elected.

[GenXteacher]

If they really wanted independence, they’d declare war and take it.

[SunkenCiv]

Tories win plurality, they partner with UKIP; Labour wins, they can’t, leaving them the Lib Democrats and the Greens (and they’d probably need both).

Britain’s Surprisingly Unpredictable Election
Whether David Cameron or Ed Miliband comes out ahead on May 7, they will probably need a coalition partner. But which one?
http://www.wsj.com/articles/britains-surprisingly-unpredictable-election-1429888755

General Election 2015: Tories and Labour still deadlocked in the polls with support for smaller parties growing
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-tories-and-labour-still-deadlocked-in-the-polls-with-support-for-smaller-parties-growing-10202851.html

Latest UK election polls show Conservative and Labour parties in close tie
http://www.dw.de/latest-uk-election-polls-show-conservative-and-labour-parties-in-close-tie/a-18408875

Stupidly, the election doesn’t seem to be about the economy this time
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/stupidly-the-election-doesnt-seem-to-be-about-the-economy-this-time-10204088.html

the media in the UK is even more left-biased than it is in the US.

Election 2015: Labour’s 12-point lead [in London] as battle for London seats hots up
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labours-12point-lead-as-battle-for-london-hots-up-10201129.html

Hot mess:

Election 2015: Poll tracker
http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/poll-tracker

[SunkenCiv]

> Labour leader Ed Miliband has ruled out a Labour-SNP coalition in the event of a hung Parliament after May’s general election.
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32441603

Clegg accuses Cameron and Miliband of ‘conning voters’
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32471516

Reality Check: Are Tories planning biggest cuts?
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32438100

Reality Check: Is Libyan migrant crisis the UK’s fault?
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32381621

Reality Check: BBC Election debate facts checked
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32342177

[SunkenCiv]

The Scots didn’t want to get out, as it turned out; the “Asian” and “African” immigrants in some of Scotland’s urban areas wanted “independence”, IOW, wanted a tiny new member of the EU and even more immigration.

Nick Farage, leader of UKIP, put out an op-ed shortly before the “independence” vote, telling the Scots that going out would be a big mistake, and why.

The only scare tactics going on in the campaign have been by the soon-to-be defeated smaller parties — none of which will partner with the Tories anyway, nor have more than a handful of seats — and the media, which has largely debunked the Labour, UKIP, SNP, and LP claims, while snarking about Cameron’s campaign fatigue induced gaffes. Farage appears to be headed for Parliament — there was a possibility that he’d lose his race regardless of how UKIP fared — and has otherwise been laying back.

The current polling shows the Conservatives at 33 and UKIP at 16, bringing them up to 49 nationally; of course, how that all shakes out will depend on the actual numbers of seats won, but the big story may be that there will be a two-party coalition with a strong drift of Euroskepticism, with a possible continued participation of the Liberal Democrats, otherwise, a closely divided Commons, exposing Cameron to no-confidence and early elections. Best guess is, Tories/LD/UKIP.

General Election 2015: Keep Lib Dems in coalition, says green industry
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-keep-lib-dems-in-coalition-says-green-industry-10204137.html

[SunkenCiv]

from the muzzie perspective:

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/specials/british_elections/

> Nigel Farage has “detected quite a sharp rise in anti-Semitism, not just in this country, but across the rest of Europe too. What’s fuelling it is that there are many more Muslim voices, and some of those Muslim voices are deeply, deeply, critical of Israel. In fact, some of them even question the right of Israel to exist as a nation.”

In August 2014, when asked what UKIP’s stance is on the Gaza-Israel situation, Farage said: “I don’t have a solution for it. I don’t think anyone in the world does. Do I think Israel has a right to exist and defend itself? Yes. Do I think Israel is over-reacting? It looks like it is. Although I’m reminded that when Hitler sent the doodlebugs here we bombed their cities to the ground. It looks like they’re over-reacting, but think about it, we did much the same kind of thing. Do I think there needs to be a two state solution? Ultimately there has to be, longer term.”

On the vote to recognise Palestine as a state Farage said that the EU has no legal right to recognise states.

[SunkenCiv]

General Election 2015 explained: Parties
[snip] There were 428 registered political parties in Great Britain in 2015, plus a further 36 in Northern Ireland. (Some parties have entities on both sides of the Irish Sea.) Not all of these are fielding candidates in the election. [/snip]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-explained-parties-10217027.html

Election 2015 – live: Ashcroft poll shows Clegg to lose seat and Tories to beat Farage
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/apr/29/election-2015-miliband-tory-12bn-welfare-cuts-russell-brand-interview-live

Election 2015: Osborne rejects Lib Dem claims on Conservatives’ welfare cuts - live
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11572588/conservative-benefits-cuts-snp-polls-live.html

> Ed Miliband will be ‘reliant’ on the support of the SNP if he becomes Prime Minister, the New Statesman warns as senior Labour figures say the Labour leader has become ‘toxic’... Senior Labour figures have rounded on Ed Miliband over his “complacency” in Scotland as a new poll revealed that the SNP is on course to win every seat north of the border... The New Statesman, which has been described as the “bible of the left”...editorial said: “Even after the SNP’s victory in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, which we predicted, he remained complacent over Labour’s decline in Scotland, where he is even less popular than David Cameron.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11572446/Senior-Labour-figures-turn-on-Ed-Miliband-over-disastrous-Scotland-polls.html

General election: The compelling case for continuity in Britain
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/e61ce174-ea94-11e4-96ec-00144feab7de.html

[Vanders9]

Why? Words are a more effective weapon.

There are all kinds of permutations as to what will happen on May 7th, but the frightening thing is that almost all of them end in Scottish independance.

[Vanders9]

UKIP will NOT go into a coalition with the Conservatives.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Vanders9. Clegg says the LD won't join a coalition that also includes the UKIP or SNP, but earlier I read that he may lose his seat, meaning new LD leadership. Farage has said UKIP would, then wouldn't, and more recently that it might, in order to prevent Labour and SNP from forming a ruling coalition.

[SunkenCiv]

Who will form a coalition after the general election? [London Evening Standard]

1. Conservative-Lib-Dem coalition
2. Labour-SNP pact
3. Labour-Lib Dem
4. Labour/Lib Dem/SNP pact
5. Conservative-led multi-party pact (UKIP & Democratic Unionists)

[SunkenCiv]

Nick Clegg rules out Lib Dem coalition with any party also doing a deal with SNP or UKIP [Independent, so no excerpt]

[SunkenCiv]

• Farage: UKIP would work with Cameron to block Labour-SNP coalition [Guardian]
• Nigel Farage: I will back Tory-led Coalition if we have an EU referendum this year [Telegraph]

[SunkenCiv]

I’ve begun to wonder if this guy’s just a weasel:

Miliband says Tories ‘using SNP to distract voters
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32560887

-but from the other side of his mouth-

Don’t gamble on the SNP, Ed Miliband says
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32549284

[SunkenCiv]

2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast [total of 650 seats, 326 needed to rule]

Seats (UK)

Party	Lo	Seats	Hi	Swing
Conservatives	247	280	313	-26
Labour	237	269	302	11
SNP	41	50	56	44
Liberal Democrats	19	26	33	-31
DUP	7	9	10	1
Plaid Cymru	2	4	6	1
SDLP	1	2	3	-1
UKIP	0	1	3	1
Greens	0	1	1	0
Other	7	8	10	0

[Vanders9]

Well as far as I can make out, the Lib-Dems are prepared to go into coalition with either Labour or the Conservatives; the two mainstream parties havent said but probably will reciprocate. SNP will go into coalition with Labour but Labour has ruled out a coalition with SNP. I dont think anyone would go into coalition with UKIP apart from the Tories. I know (being a member myself) that there is a great deal of internal opposition within UKIP to go into coalition with the Conservatives. Farage has always ruled it out. If he does enter into a coalition I think a considerable proportion of the membership will tear up their cards.

Issue by issue arrangements are certainly possible, but a UKIP Conservative tie in is, I think, unlikely.

[Vanders9]

Only one or three are possible as far as I can see.