Posted on 04/15/2015 8:37:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Writing at National Review Online (and speaking for herself, not the editorial board), Myra Adams offers “Five Reasons Why Hillary Wins in 2016.” It is worth examining her reasoning and looking not to dismiss it, but rather for means of countering the strengths she cites. Presidential politics are very challenging for the GOP these days, and demographic trends, spurred by immigration policy, do not favor conservatives.
Reason number one: “First Female President”
The Democrats discovered and brilliantly exploited the “historic first” strategy with Barack Obama, foisting a radical, inexperienced rookie senator on us. There are about four times more women than blacks, so the historic first strategy has an excellent chance of working again, and it is probably Hillary’s strongest card.
What to do? Well, Carly Fiorina as VP nominee seems like a pretty good counter-strategy. It is pretty clear she is hoping for exactly that role, and because of her two X chromosomes, she can go after Hillary in a way that no Y chromosome-impaired candidate could. Veep nominees historically have role of attack dog, and Carly has shown herself very capable at this. A female VP would also be a historic first, and allow women with doubts about Hillary a chance to strike a blow for women without subjecting the nation to a lying, devious, imperious, nasty, and sneaky woman like Hillary.
Reason number two: “The Electoral College Is the GOP’s Worst Enemy”
This is the commonplace analysis, that a “blue wall” of Democrat sure-thing victories gets any Dem nominee perilously close to victory in Electoral College.
What to do? Fight like hell in states that are considered blue historically but that have seen some red victories. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, for example. And focus resources on Florida and Ohio.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Their prediction is as good as mine:
She won’t.................
I’m off to Australia!
Translation: the vote fraud fix is hard to beat.
From what I’m seeing in social media, Clinton doesn’t appear to be very popular among key democrat demographics like the young and minorities.
That "blue wall" is depressing, no doubt about that. Playing with the maps over at www.270towin.com there's a whole lot of blue we need to turn red again, not just Ohio and Florida, but Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia as well. And then we barely squeak by with 280 (R), 258 (D).
Reason number two: “The Electoral College Is the GOP’s Worst Enemy”
Well that and the elimination of “winner take all” in Conservative states, while the libs keep winner take all in their states....
If it were non-winner take all in ALL STATES, Republicans would have an advantage.
But the left has been fighing to remove winner take all in mostyly red states to dillute the power of red states in the EC.
Nate Silver recently published a blog for “538” that debunks much of the idea the EC is mounting against the GOP as much as some think it is. Hillary will not benefit from the 2008 wave-year dynamic, or the 2012 incumbency advantage that favored Obama. So long as we DON’T find ourselves saddled with Jeb Bush, the states will probably line up closer to 2004 than 2008/2012. I can see Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Florida and Virginia realigning against the dems in 2016.
All that said... there’s also the undeniable factor of the growing numbers of brainless ones who now populate half of the electorate. If the dems successfully dangle another shiny object in their faces, they’ll turn out in big numbers for Hillary.
Best passage from the response: "If he [Slick Willy] were to die during the campaign, would the sympathy vote elect Hillary? Quite possibly. Let’s all pray for him."
“Mostly, the “blue wall” was the effect of Obama’s success in 2008 and 2012, not the cause of it.” - http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3278704/posts
If the American voter is so far gone that they’ll twice elect a homosexual Kenyan Muslim to the Presidency, it’s not to hard to believe they would elect something like Hillary Clinton.
If you could post a link to Nate Silver’s article, I would be interested. I am a little wary of getting nuanced on same. The fact of the matter is that the GOP has to win practically every loose race. All of them. That is statistically unlikely, IMHO.
As utterly despicable as HC is, the math of the EC is indeed formidable.
We’re working on changing to proportional allocation of electoral votes in Michigan.
Her Thighness isn’t the problem; it’s every last Obama leech and idiot who would vote for her that is the real issue.
I’m also of the opinion that no GOP candidate can fix what is irretrievably broken.
Who actually thinks he'll really let Hillary have it when he is done with it?
Obama and Jarrett both have too much invested to just be able to lay it down and walk away.
And they sure as hell have no intention of letting Hillary walk away with it.
Nope. Hillary is no shoe-in.
How old is Hillary Clinton?
Agreed, we're toast
They have strict immigration policies and more than likely won’t let you in.
If she makes it to the general, folks like Ted Cruz will eat her lunch.
Poised, quick, constitutionalist and no skeletons.
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