Posted on 04/13/2015 2:04:37 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
As Hillary Clinton famously said, “What difference at this point does it make?”
The difference is that half of Americans believe the other half are insane if they vote the Clintons back into the White House.
The sane voters know that Hillary Clinton is not trustworthy and represents all that is wrong with Washington. We know that she carries more baggage than an airport luggage carousel.
Hillary is a 20th-century politician, and as of yesterday her lame new 21st-century video message is, “I’m hitting the road to earn your vote because it’s your time, and I hope you’ll join me on this journey.” (Perhaps instead she should run for president of Greyhound?)
Even our Democratic friends cannot name a single real accomplishment by Hillary Clinton. We all know that if she were a man, she would be long past her political expiration date.
But despite all that (topped off by her botched announcement), here are five reasons why Hillary Clinton is likely to be elected the 45th president of the United States.
Any one of these five factors gives her a huge advantage over whoever the Republican nominee may be, and, taken together, they make her victory almost inevitable (barring some major campaign catastrophe).
1. First Female President
Hillary’s official announcement video was devoid of a clear campaign message — but does she really need one other than, “It’s time for a woman president”?
Running as an historic candidate will be her default position — with her mantra being that “It’s time,” rather than that it’s her time. And she will downplay, of course, the fact that her last attempt was hijacked by the first African-American nominee.
Writing as a Republican baby-boomer woman, I cannot emphasize enough how emotionally rewarding it would be if Democratic and Independent baby-boomer women elected the first female president. Older women feel this way too — my 89-year-old mother in her nursing home recently spoke these exact words: “It’s time for a woman president.” And those raised on girl power — women aged 50 and younger, who twice helped elect President Obama — are the most rah-rah for “It’s time.”
For the record, in 2012 53 percent of all voters were women. In that election, President Obama won this group by an 11-point margin — 55 to 44 percent — over GOP nominee Mitt Romney. Hillary is banking on surpassing those numbers just by having her name on the ballot.
Therefore, any Republican pundit or pollster who downplays the true meaning and potential of Hillary’s historic candidacy is being untruthful, or has his head in the sand.
2. The Electoral College Is the GOP’s Worst Enemy
Our constitutionally mandated Electoral College has evolved to a point where it is slanted in favor of the Democratic party’s nominee. If Hillary is indeed the 2016 Democratic nominee, all she has to do to win the necessary 270 electoral votes is sustain the historic equation outlined in my November National Review piece “Breaking the Blue Barrier.” That equation is: 1992 + 1988 + Florida = a Democrat in the White House.
That first number represents the ten states with a total of 152 electoral votes that have been won by every Democratic presidential nominee since 1992. The second number represents the nine states with a total of 90 electoral votes that have been won by every Democratic presidential nominee since 1988. Together, those states command 242 electoral votes.
Thus, if Hillary follows the Electoral College precedent that has held since 1992 and also wins Florida, with its 29 electoral votes (or any combination of states yielding 28 votes), Bill Clinton would be elected First Dude. (Mothers, hide your daughters!)
Florida, need I remind you, was won by Obama, though by small margins, in both 2008 and 2012, ensuring that in 2016 Mrs. Clinton will become a de facto resident of the Sunshine State.
3. Obama’s Third Term
There has been much talk about Hillary either winning or losing Obama’s “third term.” My theory is that she will find a way to take only what she needs and jettison the rest. And what she needs is Obama’s winning voter coalition of women, African-Americans, Hispanics, Asians, voters aged 18 to 44, voters with incomes under $50,000, and those belonging to a union. It is no coincidence that Hillary’s high command is stacked with seasoned veterans from Obama’s two campaigns who are adept at delivering these voter groups.
Additionally, the CEO of Hillary 2016 is John Podesta, who was President Bill Clinton’s chief of staff, and who was “counselor to the president” in Obama’s White House until he stepped down in February. Podesta, known as one of Washington’s fiercest political operators, was also the mastermind behind Obama’s excessive use of executive orders.
Now, Republicans, get ready for some astounding news: President Obama’s current job approval rating stands at 45.3 percent, with a 50.3 percent disapproval rating, according to Real Clear Politics. These are highly respectable approval numbers for a sixth presidential year, which explains the following paragraph from yesterday’s New York Times: “Mrs. Clinton and her team have decided that, on balance, the risk of lining up near Mr. Obama’s record is worth taking. Rather than run from Mr. Obama, she intends to turn to him as one of her campaign’s most important allies and advocates — second only, perhaps, to her husband, the other president whose record will hover over her bid.”
This brings us to Hillary’s advantage number four:
4. Bill Clinton’s Third Term
Revolting as that sounds to Republican ears, here is a Washington Post headline from March 13: “Bill Clinton is incredibly popular. How much will that help Hillary’s 2016 campaign?”
The piece reported: “Bill Clinton is almost certainly the most popular person in American politics. A new NBC-Wall Street Journal poll showed that 56 percent of people have a positive view of the former president while just 26 percent hold a negative one.”
The article continues, referring to Bill Clinton: “‘The campaigner in chief is always more an asset than anything,’ said Jef Pollock, a New York–based Democratic pollster. ‘He’s good for money, he’s good for strategy, and he’s good for turnout. That’s the holy trinity of good campaigning.’”
Therefore, Hillary will have the unusual advantage of running for both Bill Clinton’s and Barack Obama’s “third term.” Watch her switch back and forth between the achievements (real or imagined) of the former and current presidents whenever it makes good political sense. In turn, the 42nd and 44th presidents will each campaign and fundraise for Hillary in places and to groups where they are most popular. You can just hear each of them say, “A vote for Hillary is a vote for me,” and the crowd will go wild.
5. Republicans and the General-Election Curse
In five out of the past six presidential elections, starting with 1992, Republicans have lost the popular vote. The key for a 2016 GOP victory will be to nominate a candidate who can attract a winning coalition of voter groups beyond those won by Mitt Romney in 2012.
Here are the groups won by Romney over Obama:
• Whites: 59 to 39 percent • Men: 52 to 45 percent • Voters aged 45 to 64: 51 to 47 percent • Voters aged 65 and over: 56 to 44 percent • College graduates: 51 to 47 percent (interestingly, Romney lost postgraduate-educated voters to Obama 42 to 55 percent) • Voters with incomes between $50,000 and $90,000: 52 to 46 percent. • Voters with incomes of $100,000 and over: 54 to 44 percent.
The trouble is that older, whiter, richer male college graduates — the kind of voters who show up for midterm elections and vote Republican — are overwhelmed by the sheer number of female, younger, poorer, less educated, and less white voters who tend to flood the polls in presidential-election years. And, as I mentioned earlier, Clinton will target these same voter groups as she tries to assemble the coalition that gave Obama his two victories.
Finally, anything can happen, and much will, between now and November 8, 2016. However, these five factors will likely form the foundation of Hillary Clinton’s victory (even though many of her voters will be holding their noses).
In addition, many low-information voters will pull the Clinton lever because they have been led to believe that a Republican alternative is far more dangerous than letting Bill and Hill back in the White House.
Now, friends, please don’t shoot the messenger. Just tell me why I am wrong.
— Myra Adams is a media producer and political writer. She was on the 2004 Bush campaign’s creative team and the 2008 McCain campaign’s ad council. Her writing credits include PJ Media, the Daily Beast, RedState, and the Daily Caller.
At least she can’t run on the first marxist POTUS platform...
She was the inevitable winner in 2008, also, remember?
If Hillary was a white man no one would be excited.
The demographics in this country have changed enough to make the winds propel her along without any great effort on her part.
Republicans have to somehow overcome it. Good luck with it.
Bill Clinton was saved by Newt Gingrich.
Yeah, she would have won had Obama not pushed her aside.
7. Conservatives go after everyone that is conservative but isn't 100% perfect allowing weak candidates to win in the primary. Romney 2012 (or Jeb 2016 unless we get our butts in gear) for an example.
It matters to you and me.
The lo info voter crowd could give a damn.
Unless Hillary has some big scandal in the next 20 months or so, she can count on being Mrs. President.
And she has already weathered Emailgate.
America cannot endure 8 years of Obozo followed by 4 years of the screeching Hildebeast.
If that heppens, America as we know her will cease to be.
We still gotta try...
“Hillary Clinton is not trustworthy and represents all that is wrong with Washington.”
BUMP TO INFINITY!
I love that picture of Sarah and Jim. *HEART*
The problem is that there is NOTHING for anyone to get excited over Hillary. Her campaign speeches and debate performances are nothing to be desired. She made Obama shine in comparison.
My prediction is that if someone like Walker or Cruz gets the GOP nomination, it will be their’s to loose. If Jeb Bush wins the nomination, it will be Hillary’s to loose.
Hillary is completely trustworthy ...
We can trust her to lie, cheat, steal, and kill in order to achieve power.
No, the Clintons have always got that stuff dismissed as "old news."
Barack Obama, and many democrats will undermine her candidacy. They don't like her much either.
That's the $64,000 question. Figuring out how close to get and how close is too close is going to be maddening for the Dems, but Barack and Hillary probably don't hate each other as much as a lot of political rivals down through the years have.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.