Posted on 01/10/2015 7:32:32 PM PST by SkyPilot
More than half of the 2014-2015 enrollment period for the Affordable Care Act, best known as Obamacare, is in the books, and the enrollment figures on the surface look very encouraging.
To be clear, Obamacare is about more than just enrollment figures. For one thing, in order for the health reform law to be successful, it'll need people that enroll to actually continue paying their premium. This is the only way that medical care costs get spread out over a greater swath of the public, which is needed to control medical care cost inflation. However, between April and mid-October, for instance, around 1 million people stopped paying for their health insurance. The program will need to minimize this attrition in 2015 and beyond in order to be successful.
Surface enrollment data is strong In the meantime, Obamacare enrollments from week six (Dec. 20 to Dec. 26) continue to point toward the law bringing in more than the 9.1 million people that the Department of Health and Human Services had predicted.
Based on data for just the 37 states operating under the federally run Healthcare.gov, nearly 6.5 million people have selected plans. During week six just 96,446 people selected a plan, but this drop-off was expected considering both the holiday week and the fact that we're past the deadline whereby people could enroll and still be covered by Jan. 1, 2015. This deadline was a huge impetus to the enrollment surge witnessed in weeks four and five.
In spite of the subdued enrollment in week six, nearly 317,000 people window-shopped healthcare plans on Healthcare.gov and close to 1.4 million users were active on the site. The implication is that interest in obtaining health insurance is still high for many uninsured Americans.
Things are going well numbers-wise at the state level, too. Through mid-December some 1.1 million plan selections had been made, bringing the total number of selected plans through all 50 states to at least 7.6 million.
Here's a figure to worry about Yet fresh data from the HHS tells us that 5.6 million Obamacare enrollees and also investors have something to seriously worry about.
In a press release dated Dec. 30 the HHS announced that a whopping 87% of people enrolled through Healthcare.gov (5.6 million people) between Nov. 15, 2014, and Dec. 15, 2014, were getting financial assistance, also known as a subsidy. This is up from the 80% of enrollees who received a subsidy in the Nov. 15, 2013, to Dec. 15, 2013, period.
There are some positive takeaways from this figure. First, I'd suggest that fully functional software is making it easier for those who are eligible to receive a subsidy to enroll in the 2014-2015 period than in the prior enrollment period which was filled with glitches. Also, these subsidies act as a dangling carrot, encouraging people to enroll.
However, this seven percentage point rise in enrollees qualifying for subsidies could be a potential death knell for Obamacare based on a Supreme Court case expected to be ruled on sometime in June. Plaintiffs in the case argue that the language of the ACA is structured in such a way that only states running their own exchanges can divvy out subsidies to eligible individuals. Thus, if the Supreme Court finds in favor of the plaintiffs, it would mean that the 5.6 million people currently receiving subsidies via Healthcare.gov, the federally run exchange, would no longer receive those payments. I believe very, very few of those enrollees currently receiving a subsidy could afford healthcare without federal assistance.
The obvious solution is that states would need to build their own exchanges, however this is a task that would take one to two years to complete. I'm not certain that Obamacare could survive such a shock.
Very uncertain times To say the least, these are very uncertain times for health-benefits providers. Just as Obamacare has relied on subsidies to lower the rate of uninsured individuals, some insurers have geared their enrollment game plan around attracting these government-sponsored members. Redacting these subsidies now could be unpleasant for insurers' bottom-lines.
Let's discuss three different ways an investor could approach this critical decision in June. One way is, of course, to avoid the situation altogether. But, if you do, you could run the risk of missing out on big gains in the insurance sector in the meantime and following the Supreme Court's decision.
Your second option is to can focus on national insurers that have minimal exposure to Obamacare. In this instance, "minimal" exposure could simply mean insurers that have a balanced portfolio of products and which receive only a small amount of premium payments from Obamacare. UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH ) , the nation's largest insurer, for instance, receives a quarter of its revenue from Medicare Advantage plans and nets a good chunk as well from its health management service company Optum. This isn't to say an unfavorable ruling wouldn't affect UnitedHealth, but comparably speaking it would be in better shape than many of its smaller peers.
Lastly, you can choose to angle your investment strategy on insurers that operate in states that have their own exchange. While it's unlikely you're going to find any that operate solely in those states, some net a higher percentage of their Obamacare enrollees from states with their own exchanges than others. Molina Healthcare (NYSE: MOH ) , for example, generates a good number of enrollees from California, which operates its own exchange. Not to mention, Molina only recently dipped its toes into the water when it comes to operating in the individual insurance market. Losing a few thousand members wouldn't dramatically impact its bottom line.
One thing is for certain: it's going to be pins and needles for Obamacare, insurers, investors, and 5.6 million people receiving subsidies via Healthcare.gov until June.
I was going to post a facepalm pic, but I don't think such exists, that merits following the above statement...
So the 46 million Americans with no insurance haven’t signed up yet?
My husband lost his job 1 year ago and we had cobra for about six months at the cost of 1200.00 per month. I wish we would have not used the over 6,ooo.oo for the cobra payments because we are going to get hit with the penalty anyway.
We actually sold our home and moved from California to Texas in August hoping the job market would be better here for my husband he is still looking for a job. We just don’t have enough money for insurance.
The thing that really bugs me the most is now I feel like a scofflaw because I do not have insurance. I have always followed the law and been a good citizen but now because I can’t buy insurance I will be penalized.
I hate O I can not wait until he is gone. I altos feel the same way about Mr. Roberts what a traitor POS he turned out to be.
I am sure that Boehner and his crew can find some compassionate conservative funds somewhere.
If they were not going to uphold ACA explain why they would postpone a ruling until June when they know full well the monetary crisis they are bringing about.
>>... a potential death knell for Obamacare based on a Supreme Court case expected to be ruled on sometime in June. Plaintiffs in the case argue that the language of the ACA is structured in such a way that only states running their own exchanges can divvy out subsidies to eligible individuals. Thus, if the Supreme Court finds in favor of the plaintiffs, it would mean that the 5.6 million people currently receiving subsidies via Healthcare.gov, the federally run exchange, would no longer receive those payments.<<
Not to worry. Roberts will just rule that the regime is the state and all will be well.
At this point, anyone who trusts anybody in any part of the government to do the right thing is a fool.
“it’ll need people that enroll to actually continue paying their premium”
LOL THIS is not fitting in with the cries of the obama FREE STUFF, FREE STUFF morons.
Because without the “exchanges” they cannot stick it to those people who are actually responsible, take care of their health as best they can, obey laws, and pay their bills and taxes. The Gibsmedats have to catered too.....and that means hand holding, freebies, and subsidies.
I will pray for and your husband. Your situation and story could be repeated 1,000,000 times over in this nation. We are in an actual Depression, masked by Food Stamps, Federal giveaways, debt, and a Stock Market artificially inflated by Quantitative Easing giveaways of 4 Trillion since 2009. You guys were hurt so bad because Obama and the government didn’t care a whit about you. Middle class, hard working law abides were not on his radar screen. ObamaCare is also racial, hence the “Board of Minority Health” and all the rest that is in the law regarding race.
Any medical procedure in the US costs 3 to 5 times what it costs in other nations.....and the main reason is the lawyers in America have gotten rich while they have ruined our healthcare system. The other reason it is so expensive is because the insurance companies are billed up the wazoo for what should be more reasonable prices, but this done so that the illegals, the sluggos, and the Gibsmedats get theirs paid for.
That picture reminds me of people getting sucked into a timeshare sales push. I bet they get the same hard sell.
Exactly.
The fines will be collected by the IRS, which now has greatly expanded powers. I have long believed that if the U.S. ever suffers a massive financial collapse, the government would seize IRAs, bank accounts, safe deposit boxes, etc. Now I am more convinced than ever that the IRS will do this.
the article is garbage the numbers illustrate the failure
there is no 30 million inrollment figure touted as the number of uninsured
The signees get a policy paid for with a subsidy and then go to the ER only to discover they must fork over cash because of their deductable.
The other reason it is so expensive is because the insurance companies are billed up the wazoo for what should be more reasonable prices, but this done so that the illegals, the sluggos, and the Gibsmedats get theirs paid for.
Part of what you say is true, but part of it is also that it's damn expensive to have an ER equipped and staffed to handle anything, 24/7. The same is true of doctors' offices, clinics, etc.
Expectations of medical care in this country border on the ability to summon miracles.
You might find cheaper medical care in India or Pakistan, but you're also rolling the dice in a way that you do not do in the US.
I hope they are.
Amen
You might find cheaper medical care in India or Pakistan, but you're also rolling the dice in a way that you do not do in the US.
I was not comparing our prices to those nation's per se - but here are comparisons with Western governments or those relatively so.
Look at these charts:
21 graphs that show America’s health-care prices are ludicrous
Cleary, the US prices and costs are out of control.
I am not completely blaming the providers - but I also blame the greedy lawyers, the government, the illegals, the lazy, and those Americans who don't give a damn about personal responsibility.
That is true.
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