If you plot US consumption versus price in the past, we don't make big changes and we certainly don't make them very fast. I see petroleum demand fairly inelastic in the short term.
Posted on 12/23/2014 11:57:30 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Evidence is mounting that the U.S. economy is kicking into high gear.
Gross domestic product soared 5% on an annual basis in the third quarter, the government said on Tuesday.
To put that in perspective, it's the strongest quarter of growth since 2003.
"Other than the first quarter's weather-induced contraction, there's no doubt the economy has been great this year," said Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG.
Investors cheered the news, sending the stock market to record highs with the Dow crossing 18,000 for the first time ever.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
Not to be pessimistic, but I’ll wait for the adjusted numbers to roll in.
Cheap energy means more disposable income to buy down inventory.
The welfare state should start shrinking any minute now./s
More and better jobs should mean better income for people who haven’t seen a raise since Obama’s new America was born.
My net pay increased by $5 and change between 2009 & 2014
The company I work at has a payroll site you can log into to check and compare pay stubs.
Now that $5 extra a week does not cover the extra cost of everything.
Not to be pessimistic, but I’ll wait for the adjusted numbers to roll in.
Cheap energy means more disposable income to buy down inventory.
The welfare state should start shrinking any minute now./s
More and better jobs should mean better income for people who haven’t seen a raise since Obama’s new America was born.
If this kind of growth keeps up for a couple more quarters, oil will be back up to $90@barrel by next fall—or sooner.
Brent oil $90 to $100 in 12 to 18 months: Pickens
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102291371#.
Energy entrepreneur T. Boone Pickens predicted Tuesday that Brent crude oil will be at $90 to $100 barrel in 12 to 18 months. “The world got along fine with $100 oil,” he said on CNBC.
What must happen for the old man to be right? (for us old guys, T Boone is a shining example that we can keep on keeping on)
The Russian Economy must deteriorate to the point of failure
ISIS must complete the assimilation of territory along the river from Aleppo to somewhere north of Baghdad and establish a new state. This state will then be Sunniized and the wackos ousted.
Shia Iraq must congeal
Assad must resign or die
All that will come to pass
Energy entrepreneur T. Boone Pickens predicted Tuesday that Brent crude oil will be at $90 to $100 barrel in 12 to 18 months. “The world got along fine with $100 oil,” he said on CNBC.
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Growth rates of 4-5% in the US economy in the last two quarters have to be related to lower oil prices—and because higher growth in the USA sucks in more imports—that has to trigger higher growth rates overseas—therefor the poignancy of the old adage...”the cure for lower oil prices is lower oil prices.”
What’s interesting is the speed of the predicted round trip tracks the round trip speed of the round trip of 2008-2010 rather than the long period of low oil prices in the 1990’s.
There was much less demand than supply in the 90’s however by 2008-2010 demand—especially from BRICS was pushing past supply. However, supply since 2009 supply has changed radically.
So I’m not so sure that predictions for a fast turn around by 2016 to 90-100 are quite warranted. We’ll see.
If you plot US consumption versus price in the past, we don't make big changes and we certainly don't make them very fast. I see petroleum demand fairly inelastic in the short term.
Translation: Obama’s FED funny money is being printed at unprecedented levels and the stock market is swimming in it.
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/jim-cramer-dont-too-excited-161905502.html
Jim Cramer: Don’t Get Too Excited About Oil Going Higher
1 hour 52 minutes ago 1:10 TheStreet.com Videos
TheStreet’s Jim Cramer says oil could revisit the $52 level. Cramer says energy investor Boone Pickens has taught him that oil is a 2-sided coin: there’s supply and there’s demand. While Cramer believes there’s way too much supply, Pickens tells him it’s less about oversupply and more about weak global demand. But with the U.S. expected to produce enough oil next year to make about 10 million barrels per day and with weak demand from Europe and China beginning to weaken, Cramer says it’s very hard to envision oil going back to the $70s and $80s. Boone believes it’ll go to $80-$90 by the end of next year. But Cramer says it’s difficult to see a dramatic decline in the rig count or to see less production. As an example, Cramer points to Continental Resources which is cutting back yet still doing double digit growth. So he advises investors to take a good look at supply and demand before getting too excited about oil going higher.
Ol' T-Bone knows weakened weakening is strengthening.
Ol’ T-Bone knows weakened weakening is strengthening.
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There is a little difference between T-Boone and Cramer. Generally all agree that the cure for lower oil prices is lower oil prices—because lower oil prices juice the economy—pushing up demand for oil.
“incredible” being the key word, of course...
Neither of them have been especially accurate in recent years, but at least Pickens puts his own money on the line. I was actually poking fun at the redundant writing in the excerpt.
With T.Books, he is always going to talk positive about anything that promotes using CNG & LNG for vehicle fuel. High oil prices, just around the corner, use Clean Energy Fuels today!
He is intelligent. He is a patriot. And he is a great self-promoter.
There are 210 million Americans with driver’s licenses. Assume half don’t drive regularly.
So multiply $40 a month gas savings by 105 million. What do you get?
$4,200,000,000.00/month. Not to mention lower trucking prices trickling back as lower prices to consumers or higher profits to sellers.
How good are Pickens’ predictions historically? Didn’t he just make a bad bet on green energy recently?
What caused the drop in finished product?
This seems similar to the Soviet reports of increased production of ... whatever, wheat, cars, etc.
Yeah, right.
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