I see global political, economic and military forces lining up to ignite a war in the Middle East which will have the “side effect” of closing the Persian Gulf to oil transportation. Look at how many global players would like to see cheap Saudi oil cut off, and oil prices spiking upward.
That’s what my crystal ball says. War in the Straits of Hormuz.
I agree the current situation is highly unlikely to be sustained for a year or so. Something will crack. It might first be something smaller that pushes the oil price to a higher level but not as higher as past couple years.
Uprising in Venezuela for example that limits their production during the turmoil for example. I think they are the most vulnerable at current prices but not significant enough to cause real trouble outside their local region.
The prize for the Gulf states is Europe. A pipeline across the Med to Greece will enable product to be shipped to Greece and Europe to compete with the Russians
Once ISIS has won the territory from the Med to Baghdad, the rationals will remove the wackos as they did in Egypt and have the route to the Med
There might be some action in the straight but it will not last long and it eill not cut off the flow
“That’s what my crystal ball says. War in the Straits of Hormuz.”
Good thought, but won’t happen. Still have to consider China.