I agree the current situation is highly unlikely to be sustained for a year or so. Something will crack. It might first be something smaller that pushes the oil price to a higher level but not as higher as past couple years.
Uprising in Venezuela for example that limits their production during the turmoil for example. I think they are the most vulnerable at current prices but not significant enough to cause real trouble outside their local region.
If Venezuela goes totally haywire, it will only be a regional problem.
But former KGB officer Putin might be up for some “not for attribution” mine-laying etc. He might even arrange it to point the blame elsewhere. I think he looks at the map and wonders how to drive prices back up. A war in the Persian Gulf would do the trick.
Russia seems to have been planning to use its military to threaten former satellites into rejecting NATO and the EU, and if that failed to stir up problems, support insurgencies, and force the Ukraine and Baltic states back into line. Large Russian minorities provided both the tools and excuse for his actions.
Now, with oil falling so swiftly, Putin may decide that a more profitable military target would be the middle east. He doesn’t need to occupy territory, he just needs to disrupt enough petroleum production to jack up prices.