If Venezuela goes totally haywire, it will only be a regional problem.
But former KGB officer Putin might be up for some “not for attribution” mine-laying etc. He might even arrange it to point the blame elsewhere. I think he looks at the map and wonders how to drive prices back up. A war in the Persian Gulf would do the trick.
Agreed. But it will like to reduce oil exports for a time. That will drive the price up, maybe to $75 or so and relieve enough pressure in the Persian Gulf to postpone further action.
In my opinion, way too many variable to reliably forcast, but I see the Venezuela to likely be the first one to "crack". I don't know if they have capability to try and take production from Columbia, in a Southern Remake of 1990.