GOP establishment should fear a Cruz run (Must read)

Washington Jewish Week ^ | December 17, 2014 | Jonathan S. Tobin

[2ndDivisionVet]

Senator Ted Cruz just gave a major foreign-policy speech at the Heritage Foundation critiquing the disastrous nature of what he labeled as the “Obama-Clinton” approach to the subject. His desire to lay out his foreign-policy views in detail at such a venue as well as his focus on Clinton was a clear indication of something that is not exactly a secret: he’s planning on running for president in 2016. Members of his party’s establishment, which generally despises him as much as his fellow senators and the liberal media, do not take Cruz’s ambition too seriously. But as much as it seems unlikely that he will be taking the presidential oath at the Capitol in January 2017, that establishment should be a lot more afraid of Cruz than they seem to be. Anyone who thinks he will not be a formidable primary contender is paying more attention to the media caricature of Cruz than the facts.

Let’s start by conceding that Cruz’s well-earned image as a Senate bomb-thrower and his truculent public personality makes him a poor bet as a general-election candidate. Being a true believer is an asset in a primary but his uncompromising style won’t win many independent or crossover voters. Just as important, Cruz not only sounds ornery much of the time, he generally looks it too–and in the television era it’s far from clear that Americans will ever again elect someone who doesn’t strike them as being nice or personable. But let’s put those issues aside for a moment and consider Cruz’s chances of winning the Republican nomination in a context in which liberal media bias as well as the imperative of winning the center won’t be as decisive as they would be in a general election.

It should be understood that while many in the media and among the partisans of the so-called moderates in the putative GOP presidential field think Cruz is just another version of past Republican candidates that were more gadflies than serious contenders, he is nothing of the sort. Cruz is no Michele Bachmann, a candidate who quickly imploded because of her penchant for embracing crackpot causes (like her opposition to a vaccine against cervical cancer) after enjoying a couple of months in the summer of 2011 during which it seemed as if she might get as far as Rick Santorum eventually did during the 2012 primaries. Cruz is good at playing up the down-home charm, a brilliant debater (a former college champion), and a savvy political tactician with a strong command of the issues and policy options on both domestic and foreign policy. If you’re going to make comparisons to 2012 candidates, imagine someone with the folksiness of Rick Perry (albeit in a Cuban Texan version), the passion of Santorum on populist and social conservative issues, the debating skill of Newt Gingrich, and the wonkish grasp of details of a Mitt Romney and you have a fair idea of what Cruz brings to the table.

Cruz’s ability to rouse the Tea Party base should also not be underestimated. While that constituency has been widely derided in the last couple of years as the GOP establishment managed to fend off challenges to many incumbents from Tea Party types, the grassroots conservatives have not disappeared and will turn out to support someone who can inspire passion. Cruz can do that for the exact same reasons that he appalls the establishment. The Texan can approach every key conservative issue, whether it is ObamaCare or immigration, with a laser-like precision that more easygoing or moderate candidates can’t match.

Cruz won’t win votes from those who don’t like Washington dysfunction. Republican governors are likely to win those votes. But having never given an inch or compromised on anything during his first two years in the Senate, neither will it be possible to accuse him of selling his soul to get ahead as is the usual rap on House or Senate veterans.

As for being able to organize a serious campaign, Cruz will be no latecomer to the party. He’s been working toward this goal for some time and it’s not likely that he will be caught short on organization. It remains to be seen whether the Tea Party faithful can give him enough money to fight to the end in the absence of him becoming the cause of a major donor the way Sheldon Adelson bankrolled Gingrich or Foster Friess subsidized Santorum. But Cruz is not the sort to be outworked so those who think he can’t raise enough cash are probably making a mistake.

Will that be enough to help him fend off a large number of other conservatives vying for the same voters? We don’t know, but the way he parachuted into Washington in January 2013 and quickly became the darling of the right indicates that he must be considered a serious threat to edge out others before they even get started. More to the point, Cruz is probably ideally positioned to win early primary and caucus states and then rake in the cash that will follow those victories before he tries to best the other first-tier candidates in the contests that follow. At worst, barring a mishap, I think he should be slotted in as likely to be part of a large field’s first tier.

Is he a lock to be able to carry out that scenario? Not necessarily. There will also not be as many debates in 2016 as there were in 2012, meaning that he won’t have as many opportunities to display his bulldog style or to eviscerate opponents in public. And the later primary schedule that year will make it easier for establishment types to wait before joining the race.

But the point here is that while Cruz may be considered an outlier in the Senate chamber, he’s likely to play better on the hustings in Iowa and other early states than establishment types think. Cruz may shoot himself in the foot in the next year and find others supplanting him among Tea Partiers and the rest of the party. But any assumptions on the part of the establishment that he will crash and burn is a huge mistake. Cruz may not be president but his path to the Republican nomination is no pipe dream.

[Old Retired Army Guy]

If Walker is not a conservative, why have the Democrats and Unions thrown so much money in 3 elections to get him out of there? I don’t know of many politicians who have taken on the Liberals and Unions with more success than Walker. He may not have a singing rhetoric but judge him by his deeds and not his speeches.

[Travis McGee]

To warn people. If it's Berlin 1929, it's foolish to pin your hopes on salvation from the old political parties, the "honorable military," or Hindenburg.

I don't believe we can turn this barge around. But warning people means that some will be able to make choices that will give them a better shot at safety during the coming troubles.

And I also write for the benefit of the boys and girls down in the fusion centers. I want them to understand that in the end, there will be an accounting for their actions, and "I was following orders" will not cut it. They swore oaths to defend the Constitution, not the POTUS, or "law and order" or anything else. There will be an accounting. They must understand this fact. But before that accounting, we are going to suffer terribly as a nation.

A link to the full-text Free Republic thread.

[trebb]

He'll get the money he needs, Jonathan.

Yes he will. I saw (and responded to) a post the other day where some FReeper was "disappointed" in Cruz because he was putting out feelers with money sources. He thought we had way too much "Cruz worship" going on.

I say, the sooner he obtains funding to field a run, the better - I trust his judgement and will also gladly open my own checkbook. Being retired now, I can also do some local footwork.

[stormhill]

Cruz, Paul , Walker and one or two other conservatives will split up the Conservative vote allowing an Establishment candidate like Bush or Romney to mop up everything else

By the same token, Bush, Romney, Huckabee, Christie and three or four other marionettes will split the Establishment vote while a patriot takes his rightful place at the helm.

[InterceptPoint]

The post of the day came early.

Keep the faith 2DV. It’s Cruz all the way.

[Menthops]

While Walker may have some positive traits, he is still closely allied with GOPe elements, most notably Priebus, Ryan, and Rove. He is soft on immigration and has been nowhere to be found in aiding Ted in his defense of the Constitution.

[iontheball]

As Rush so often says, I live in Realville. We shall see whether the libs succeed. I am certain they will try.

[bert]

so what?

He took on the moonbat mobs ans destroyed them in Wisconsin

He would be a great president

reminder: Jesus Christ will not be running

[Old Retired Army Guy]

Walker is a proven “Doer”. So far, Ted is just a proven “Talker”.

[Hostage]

> “Being a true believer is an asset in a primary but his uncompromising style won’t win many ***independent*** or crossover voters.”

Tobin is a nobody and he’s also a wrong nobody. Note that he is writing for the Washington Jewish Week which is likely one of the very few places he can get a paying gig. And note that Cruz wowed Israelis in his recent trip to Israel; not that there is any love lost between Beltway Jews and Israelis.

But Tobin is eating up the lies that are fed his feeble brain. And one of those lies is that the Independents are somehow moderate. So let’s examine this lie briefly.

Salient fact: In 2012, Independents comprised 24% of the electorate. In 2014, Independents comprised 42% of the electorate (yes, it’s a fact; look it up). This latter fact is huge. It reveals a lot. And I will get it to it in a minute.

Now the ‘moderate’ figure in Mitt Romney took how many of the Independents? He won them by 1% over Obama. Winning a subgroup by one percent is in effect splitting that vote. It’s not really a win so much as it is a equal division. There is nothing statistically significant in winning 24% of the electorate by 1%. There is nothing to write home about that.

Now let’s examine a little further the 2012 Independent vote for the ‘moderate’ Romney. This was an election year that would have been a cakewalk for any candidate that inspired the GOP base. Obama was such a weak candidate coming into his 2nd run for President. Any credible opposition candidate to Obama could have taken the Independent vote by at a 10% margin yet Romney could barely win them over. That tells us the independent vote is not enamored with ‘moderate’ be all-things-to-all-people candidates.

So Tobin is retarded, what else is news?

Here’s the news that Beltway imbeciles will never get:

The largest voting block in 2014 was the Independent voter. That comprised 42% of registered voters. How is it that huge amounts of voters fled the republican and democrat parties and registered as Independents and why wasn’t this plastered in the news?

The answer is actually quite simple.

Independents are seeking credibility. They are not seeking some Beltway notion of ‘moderate’ political philosophy or image. Beltway slime is not ‘moderate’, it is responsible for a national debt which is astronomical and for a pathetic excuse of a President. No thinking person can bring themselves to follow and respect Beltway chatter about ‘moderate’ candidates when in fact the Beltway class is extreme in themselves.

But Beltway slime bubbles about in its own echo chamber. They hear only what they want to hear. A Tobin here, a Tobin there, and their words and scribbles bounce back and forth in their echo chamber never to hear the voice of the people outside even when reality smacks them upside their empty skulls with a landslide election to which they explain as low turnout or the work of the ‘master’ Karl Rove.

They never learn, they never will learn. Inability to learn in politics is described as stupidity. The Tobins of the Beltway class are stupid. But the living is good from it, just ask Gruber who scammed his way to $5 mil.

The reality is that Independents trust Ted Cruz. Ted has credibility and that is what Independents seek. Regardless of how the Tobin class seek to brand Ted Cruz as ‘extreme’, Independents do not see Cruz as ‘extreme’. What could possibly be extreme about Ted Cruz? That he loves the Constitution? That he is a master of its content and its history? That he defends it? That he calls his fellow Senators on the carpet for it?

There is nothing extreme about Ted Cruz.

What is extreme is the out of control federal government and the propaganda pigs like Tobin that feed at its trough.

Ted Cruz will take 2/3’s of the Independent vote in 2016.

Ted Cruz will take all of the Conservative base, the Reagan democrats and the Blue Collar Perot voters, and half the Latinos.

Ted will win by a landslide in 2016 either as a GOP nominee or an Independent party nominee.

[CincyRichieRich]

My heart aches for this country and the country, is the people, like those reading this who are savvy, and regularly pray for God’s hand to stay on our country.

I’m not hip enough to know how to do a link here at FR, so accompanying my soliloquy is this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/neoconica-america-new-millennium

I want Ted Cruz or Walker or some other conservative, constitutionalist; the problem is, we are up against the uniparty. After some sobering, realistic, analysis and recent quotes from the Bushes aligning with Clintons, photos of Jeb with Jarret, I realize Cruz will need to defeat voter fraud, huge donations from crony-capitalists (remember increased the max 10-fold by Boehner), arrows from the Republicans and their Bush/Rove machines, and the media, including FauxNews - the $ and Blinderberg-Soros-Gates crap behind the scenes cannot be estimated...I’d put Koch in that category, too as they hate taxes but are social liberals...even if Fauxcohontas-Warren battles Clinton, that is a distraction because no matter who the Dem nominee is, that person/ticket will align with the GOPe and there is no difference in them except perhaps a bit on foreign relations approaches - they all ignore the Constitution.

It has to be painful to be Cruz, and he needs our prayers...I also hope his wife in her lofty banking position does not become a detriment to his success. There better be a genius internet campaign flying over the heads of the media and GOPe to reach destinations...the effort to keep him from winning the primary will be amazingly evil, like nothing we’ve ever seen.

It really saddens me that the GOP has over the years sold their soul to the devil. Laura Bush with abortion, GW aligning with Clinton...it really makes me suspect even that McCain and Bush both PURPOSELY paved the way for 0bama.

Enough rant; I really encourage you to read this ZeroHedge post as it is really well done, showing the evil things the uniparty has done to this country and how it is totally ignored (except by the bright minds here at FR). God bless everyone here and keep praying, even when you don’t think God is listening.

[mac_truck]

I'm calling BS on your claim that Walker is 'soft on immigration'.

Here is Walker back in November saying he would 'go to the courts' to stop Obama's executive amnesty

Gov. Scott Walker suggests lawsuit to stop Obama immigration plan

Wisconsin is currently one of 17 states involved in a federal suit to stop Obama's executive amnesty plan.

[Menthops]

Ted winning by a landslide as an Independent would be the best scenario! He then could start a new Constitutional Conservative party and drive the GOPe with its interimiably corrupt, rotten core into the dustbin of history where it belongs.

[Stentor]

It has to be painful to be Cruz, and he needs our prayers...I also hope his wife in her lofty banking position does not become a detriment to his success.

Might be useful if you are controlled opposition.

[Hostage]

Ted Cruz will win the Independents by a large margin but he may also win the GOP nomination although I have reservations.

First, the GOPe is going to purchase every skewed poll imaginable that shows their guy ahead with Cruz trailing significantly. Second, the RNC is going to use its primary rules to select the GOPe candidate in any way it can.

The only way Cruz gets to the top of the GOP ticket (not the GOPe or RNC ticket) is if massive amounts of GOP registered voters turn out in primaries for him but remember the RNC controls those primaries so it’s going to take a mutiny if not a tidal wave to get the RNC’s attention.

Credible polls of the now largest voting block which is the Independent voting block will boost Cruz’ image because the liberal media, the New York media, the Beltway talking heads know the Independents don’t listen to them; that’s why they are independent.

The reason the syndicated media don’t talk much about the huge surge in Independent voter registrations, now 42% of the electorate is because they don’t know how to weave a story around it. Most talking heads and lame reporters are mediocre and resort to casting news as soap opera gossip (she said this and he said that) bring the same tired names to the headlines day after day. The fact that Independents now comprise 42% of the electorate is material they can’t get their empty skulls around except to project the lie that “Independents favor moderates”.

[2ndDivisionVet]

"Walker is a proven “Doer”. So far, Ted is just a proven “Talker”.

Funniest thing I've heard all week: Cruz assisted in assembling the Bush legal team, devise strategy, and draft pleadings for filing with the Supreme Court of Florida and U.S. Supreme Court, the specific case being Bush v. Gore, during the 2000 Florida presidential recounts, leading to two successful decisions for the Bush team. ---snip--- Cruz has authored 70 United States Supreme Court briefs and presented 43 oral arguments, including nine before the United States Supreme Court.[12][18][29] Cruz's record of having argued before the Supreme Court nine times is more than any practicing lawyer in Texas or any current member of Congress.[47] Cruz has commented on his nine cases in front of the U.S. Supreme Court: "We ended up year after year arguing some of the biggest cases in the country. There was a degree of serendipity in that, but there was also a concerted effort to seek out and lead conservative fights."[47] In the landmark case of District of Columbia v. Heller, Cruz drafted the amicus brief signed by attorneys general of 31 states, which said that the D.C. handgun ban should be struck down as infringing upon the Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms.[29][48] Cruz also presented oral argument for the amici states in the companion case to Heller before the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.[29][49] In addition to his success in Heller, Cruz has successfully defended the constitutionality of Ten Commandments monument on the Texas State Capitol grounds before the Fifth Circuit and the U.S. Supreme Court, winning 5-4 in Van Orden v. Perry.[18][29][39] In 2004, Cruz was involved in the high-profile case, Elk Grove Unified School District v. Newdow,[18][39] in which Cruz wrote a U.S. Supreme Court brief on behalf of all 50 states.[50] The Supreme Court upheld the position of Cruz’s brief. Cruz served as lead counsel for the state and successfully defended the multiple litigation challenges to the 2003 Texas congressional redistricting plan in state and federal district courts and before the U.S. Supreme Court, which was decided 5-4 in his favor in League of United Latin American Citizens v. Perry.[39][51] Cruz also successfully defended, in Medellin v. Texas, the State of Texas against an attempt by the International Court of Justice to re-open the cases of 51 Mexican nationals, all of whom were convicted of murder in the United States and were on death row.[12][18][29][39] With the support of the George W. Bush Administration, the International Court of Justice argued that the United States had violated a treaty by failing to notify the convicted nationals of their opportunity to receive legal aid from the Mexican consulate.[43] Texas won the case in a 6-3 decision.[43]

[Menthops]

Gov. Walker backs citizenship pathway for illegal immigrants

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/309111-wis-gov-walker-backs-path-to-citizenship-in-immigration-reform-

[Reagan Disciple]

If he runs he gets as much $$ as I can give.

Cruz it or lose it!

[SeaHawkFan]

It has to be painful to be Cruz... I think Cruz views himself as a happy warrior.

[biff]

Votes win and regardless what the SC says, corporations are not people when it come to voting.

This upcoming campaign and election is the one in which I will become the most active with contributions and foot work.

I will be “all in” for a conservative in 16 and only a conservative.