Iowa Caucuses: 2016 opening odds

Washington Times ^ | 11/18/2014 | Steve Deace

[iowamark]

The main event is finally here. The race for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination is now underway.

This is shaping up to be the strongest field of Republican challengers in recent memory. After the GOP’s strong showing in the 2014 midterms, the list of those who sense an opportunity, and want to seize it to run in 2016, is both long and distinguished. While the Democrat presidential primary is essentially Hillary Clinton (their 2008 also-ran) or bust, the Republicans have a deep bench of potential standard-bearers...

Though it may seem early to some to already be posting odds on the Iowa Caucuses, keep in mind we are less than 14 months away from Iowans casting the first official ballots of the 2016 presidential election. Below are my opening odds...

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee: 2-1 The former caucus champion is the opening favorite because he has two things going for him that matter in Iowa — he’s socially conservative and Iowans like him.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz: 4-1 He has the backing of the activists and has the best chance to put the long-dormant Reagan coalition back together again.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: 5-1 He’s a repeated winner in a blue state, and has enough establishment and conservative credentials to put the George W. Bush coalition from 2000 back together again.

Dr. Ben Carson: 10-1 He already has a campaign chairman in each of Iowa’s 99 counties, and Iowans ask me about his potential candidacy more than any other. There are a lot of people who want Dr. Carson to sell them on his bid.

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul: 15-1...

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum: 20-1

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal: 25-1

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio: 30-1

[xjcsa]

Santorum Huckabee and Carson need to be exterminated by conservative Iowans ASAP

Working on it (not in a literal sense, of course).

[xjcsa]

How in the world can you say Huck is 2-1 and Santorum is 20-1. They are the same candidate, they attract the exact same voters.

Huck will suck all the wind out of the Santorum energy; he's right about that. I think 2-1 is way too high for Huck here, but I think 20-1 is too good for Santorum too.

[xjcsa]

Based on what I see now, it looks like Ted Cruz and Scott Walker are the two front runners.

I would agree with that, and happily so.

[xjcsa]

Iowa picked total duds in 2008 and 2012. Let's hear about New Hampshire, they voted for the eventual nominee those same two cycles, while Iowa was picking corn.

Right, Iowa was picking corn in January.

Anyway do you really think the purpose is to guess who the ultimate winner will be? Iowa's role has always been to winnow the field, not to "pick the winner." We pare the field down to 3-5 candidates so everyone else can pick the winner from a manageable field rather than from the 9-12 we'll start with.

[nascarnation]

Before “Hawkeyes,” what was the football team’s name ?

The Iowa City Indians?

[C. Edmund Wright]

I don’t necessarily see any advantage for Huck over Santorum, but then again, this is not my niche of the electorate. There appears to be about 30% of the Iowa Caucus voters who are simply going to vote for someone who emphasizes nothing but social issues. RS got them all in 12, Huck got most of them in 08.

[campaignPete R-CT]

RS is an eastern lawyer, city-slicker Catholic.
Huck is rural, Baptist preacher.
Social issues to some means Gospel issues to others. It’s national revival, not the Supreme COurt.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Social issues to some means Gospel issues to others. It’s national revival, not the Supreme COurt.

Not sure I understand the point.

[xjcsa]

I don’t necessarily see any advantage for Huck over Santorum, but then again, this is not my niche of the electorate. There appears to be about 30% of the Iowa Caucus voters who are simply going to vote for someone who emphasizes nothing but social issues. RS got them all in 12, Huck got most of them in 08.

It's not my niche either, but I have many close friends who are part of this crowd, including some very connected with the Family Leader, etc. There is nearly zero excitement about Santorum running again, but there's definitely interest in Huckabee. But Walker and Cruz (and Ben Carson) have a chance with these voters. I find it to be a strange mentality - it's more like they're looking for a personality cult to join rather than it being only about issues, even social issues. They want someone who "feels" like "one of them" more than anything else, I think.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Interesting take - I think you might be onto something.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

No.

[campaignPete R-CT]

The evangelical politicos in Iowa are interested in Identity Politics, not issues.

They want a Christian figure to lead political revival. They aren’t focused on government issues. Huckabee fits the description of a national pastor-preacher. Not Santorum. And that is why they rejected Fred Thompson, despite his political background.

They are not interested in “issues”, but rather platitudes and rhetoric. They want to hear the Gospel from their candidate. As Huckabee says, “I speak the language of Zion as my native tongue.”