What say you?
Why are you so pessimistic? I tend to believe the Des Moines register poll which is very accurate in its predictions.
Link:
Better get out and vote...
I believe the register, the other polls are herding.
The cheat factor being added in.
Selzer & Co (company that did the Des Moines Register poll) has a better reputation than does Quinnipiac, at least as it concerns Iowa. That doesn’t mean that they aren’t wrong this time around, just that their track record is better. We’ll know tomorrow, won’t we.
The only poll that matters at this point is the one tommorrow, quit worrying and go vote, it’s all you can really do that will make a difference with 24 hours to go anyway....
No one poll should be taken too seriously.
However, the fact that OVERWHELMING majority of polls taken in this particular race since September show Ernst leading Braley I think is probably an accurate reading.
Further, the Des Moines Register is the largest newspaper in IA and endorsed Braley, so there is no reason to believe that it would put out a skewered poll.
I don’t make predictions anymore, but I would truly be surprised if Joni loses tomorrow night.
Both of the polls have a fairly small sample size approaching 4, so for Ernst the best poll ranges from about 54 down to 48. The tied poll has her ranging from 51 to 43. Likewise, Braley ranges from 48 to 41 and from 51 to 43.
Ernest line goes from 54 down to 43. Her midpoint would be 49. Braley’s line from 51 to 41. His midpoint is 46. This looks like a 2.5 to 3 point race now with Ernst closing in on 50%.
Barring vote fraud, this looks like an Ernst victory.
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Ernst (R) | Braley (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 10/23 - 11/2 | -- | -- | 46.7 | 45.3 | Ernst +1.4 |
| Quinnipiac | 10/28 - 11/2 | 778 LV | 3.5 | 47 | 47 | Tie |
| Des Moines Register | 10/28 - 10/31 | 701 LV | 3.7 | 51 | 44 | Ernst +7 |
| FOX News | 10/28 - 10/30 | 911 LV | 3.0 | 45 | 44 | Ernst +1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/28 - 10/30 | 990 LV | 3.0 | 48 | 47 | Ernst +1 |
| CNN/Opinion Research | 10/27 - 10/30 | 647 LV | 4.0 | 49 | 47 | Ernst +2 |
| YouGov | 10/25 - 10/31 | 1112 LV | 4.4 | 42 | 43 | Braley +1 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 10/23 - 10/29 | 1129 LV | 3.3 | 45 | 45 | Tie |
Quinnipiac has been one of the most statistically inaccurate poll of the last five elction cycles.
I’ll take Ernst and spot you 2%. If Ernst doesn’t win by more than 2.000% - a SOLID, beyond recount victory, I win - otherwise, you win.
Let’s make a $500 bet right here on Free Republic for all to see. Real money, real skin in the game.
Nate Silver thinks so.
Various Talking heads on Fox News last night also said that the Des Moines poll has a track record for accuracy. We’ll find out for sure tomorrow night.
I’m seriously beginning to wish there was just no such thing as public polls.
They serve no good or productive purpose, if you really think about it.
Most of the time they’re just used for propaganda anyway. Some media outfit with an agenda rigs a poll to show the results they’re looking for, then do biased news stories regarding the poll to sway public opinion.
Happens ALL the time.....
I only care what Dick Morris has to say, and then expect the opposite.
A tie is an outlier too, Ernst is ahead, maybe not by 7 but she is ahead.
So much for it being an “outlier”, eh? :)