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Norovirus & Ebola Zaire: same transmission vector (vanity w/CDC links)
ElenaM w/CDC quotes

Posted on 10/12/2014 4:26:02 PM PDT by ElenaM

In light of the first domestic transmission of Ebola Zaire, I thought it would be useful to compare Ebola Zaire with a well-known viral disease that hits American communities every year: Norovirus.

People keep comparing Ebola to influenza, which is an apples to broccoli comparison. Ebola Zaire and norovirus have the same transmission profile (at least based upon the CDC's claims of Ebola transmission vectors, which are publicly admitted to be incomplete)so the best comparison of the spread of Ebola in the US to any other viral pathogen is norovirus.

According to the CDC:

CDC About Norovirus: Transmission

Norovirus is a highly contagious virus. Anyone can get infected with norovirus and get sick. Also, you can get norovirus illness many times in your life. One reason for this is that there are many different types of noroviruses. Being infected with one type of norovirus may not protect you against other types.

Norovirus can be found in your stool (feces) even before you start feeling sick. The virus can stay in your stool for 2 weeks or more after you feel better.

You are most contagious

1.when you are sick with norovirus illness, and

2. during the first few days after you recover from norovirus illness.

You can become infected with norovirus by accidentally getting stool or vomit from infected people in your mouth. This usually happens by

1. eating food or drinking liquids that are contaminated with norovirus,

2. touching surfaces or objects contaminated with norovirus then putting your fingers in your mouth, or

3. having contact with someone who is infected with norovirus (for example, caring for or sharing food or eating utensils with someone with norovirus illness).

Norovirus can spread quickly in closed places like daycare centers, nursing homes, schools, and cruise ships. Most norovirus outbreaks happen from November to April in the United States.

Additionally:

JID 2012: Noroviruses: The Perfect Human Pathogens?

The success of noroviruses should come as no surprise once one considers how well adapted they are for transmission within human populations. First, noroviruses have an extremely low infectious dose ( ≥ 18 viral particles), coupled with copious viral shedding (10^5 – 10^11 viral copies per gram of feces), even among asymptomatic infections, suggesting that up to 5 billion infectious doses may be shed by an infected individual in each gram of feces. Second, noroviruses are environmentally stable, able to survive both freezing and heating (although not thorough cooking), are resistant to many common chemical disinfectants, and can persist on surfaces for up to 2 weeks. Third, there are a myriad of ways in which noroviruses may be spread, including direct contact between hosts via fecal-oral transmission, ingestion of contaminated foods or water, handling of contaminated fomites followed by hand-to-mouth contact, and — unique among enteric pathogens — via ingestion of aerosolized particles.

A virus that is communicable only through direct and indirect exposure to infected feces and vomit should be incredibly easy to stop, right? After all, we have modern plumbing, soap, etc. No one eats with their hands from a communal pot. Norovirus isn't airborne. Yet norovirus is the most common cause of the ubiquitous "stomach bug" that sweeps through the US every year.

Now compare norovirus to Ebola Zaire. Even if we discount the norovirus food/liquid contamination issue in the context of Ebola, a virus that can only be transmitted via feces and vomit contact spreads very quickly in the US. How often do your kids or entire household come down with the "stomach flu?"

Now imagine that same event only you and/or your family is infected by Ebola Zaire.

Tell me again how protected we are from a virus that is every bit as prolific in several bodily fluids (not just feces and vomit) with an infective dose even lower than norovirus (Ebola ID50 is 1-10 virons) and a 70-90% fatality rate.


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: cdc; ebola
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To: getmeouttaPalmBeachCounty_FL; ElenaM
getmeouttaPalmBeachCounty_FL:" Funny how the CDC mandates that monkeys coming into the USA have to be quarantined
but not people with deadly diseases."

Welcome the the New Whirled Order of Amerika,
where lies are truth,
where the Science is settled
and NO ONE IS RESPONSIBLE or ACCOUNTABLE !!

41 posted on 10/12/2014 6:38:39 PM PDT by Tilted Irish Kilt
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To: GrandJediMasterYoda

Actually we’re lucky it only survives 6 days.

Many more common viruses last up to months.


42 posted on 10/12/2014 6:42:11 PM PDT by the OlLine Rebel (Common sense is an uncommon virtue./Federal-run medical care is as good as state-run DMVs.)
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To: BenLurkin

Yes.


43 posted on 10/12/2014 6:42:34 PM PDT by the OlLine Rebel (Common sense is an uncommon virtue./Federal-run medical care is as good as state-run DMVs.)
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To: palmer

I am comparing the stated transmission vectors of the two pathogens—infected body fluids—to determine how quickly Ebola can spread throughout the population of the US. Do you have a pathogen you think is a closer match to Ebola? If so I’d be interested in another comparison.

Even the most methodically cleaned places, such as ICU units, contain infectious material (MRSA is a fine example.)

Given that the infected nurses were doing their best to remain healthy and taking CDC-recommended precautions, I have no doubt that Ebola could cause just as much mayhem as noro, or roto for that matter, in any school, office, or other location into which it is introduced.

I’m quite serious about comparing Ebola to another pathogen with the same transmission profile/vector. If you have another pathogen with which to compare, please let me know.


44 posted on 10/12/2014 6:48:15 PM PDT by ElenaM
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To: sarasmom

I have no idea, sorry. I seriously doubt it, though, since the CDC is having the staff at Presby using paper gowns, etc. rather than HazMat gear.


45 posted on 10/12/2014 6:50:39 PM PDT by ElenaM
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To: ElenaM

My whole family had a bout with Norovirus last Spring. It is no fun trying to take care of a sick new born, a sick 4 year old, my wife, and myself. Both of our mothers came over to try to help out and both got sick as well.


46 posted on 10/12/2014 6:52:48 PM PDT by gop4lyf (Claire Wolfe called. She said the Awkward Phase is over.)
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To: BenLurkin
Yes. Burden of Norovirus Illness and Outbreaks

Norovirus is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in all age groups in the United States.

Each year on average, norovirus—

causes 19-21 million cases of acute gastroenteritis, and

contributes to 56,000-71,000 hospitalizations and 570-800 deaths, mostly among young children and older adults

Across all ages, 16% of all acute gastroenteritis in the community is caused by norovirus, and 12% of acute gastroenteritis cases that get outpatient care are caused by norovirus.

People can get norovirus illness at any time during the year. But, it is most common in the winter. Also, there can be 50% more norovirus illness in years when there is a new strain of the virus going around.


47 posted on 10/12/2014 6:59:28 PM PDT by ElenaM
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To: ElenaM

I had Norovirus about a week after Thanksgiving last year. Geez, that was awful. I missed a week of work and I broke a rib I puked so hard.


48 posted on 10/12/2014 7:00:46 PM PDT by BuffaloJack (Bomb ISIS; bomb them again; bomb them again; kill all survivors; take no prisoners.)
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To: sarasmom

http://www.al.com/news/mobile/index.ssf/2014/10/us_hospitals_ready_to_treat_eb.html

The recommended procedures to be used with ebola patients in US hospitals are discussed there. Along with some pics of the gear they’re wearing.


49 posted on 10/12/2014 7:02:34 PM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: gop4lyf

BTDT, it was a miserable four days around here.


50 posted on 10/12/2014 7:06:12 PM PDT by ElenaM
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To: ElenaM

My daughter got rotavirus at age 14 about a dozen years ago. What a horrible illness. She was throwing up 10 times an hour and had bloody diarrhea as well. She was admitted for 24 hours and got multiple bags of IV fluids. I can’t even imagine what a serious outbreak of Ebola would do to our system of healthcare.


51 posted on 10/12/2014 8:08:02 PM PDT by Prince of Space (Be Breitbart, baby. LIFB.)
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To: getmeouttaPalmBeachCounty_FL

Funny how the CDC mandates that monkeys coming into the USA have to be quarantined but not people with deadly diseases.


Best post of the month!


52 posted on 10/12/2014 11:55:17 PM PDT by Freedom56v2 (w)
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To: ElenaM
Do you have a pathogen you think is a closer match to Ebola? If so I'd be interested in another comparison.

Any enveloped virus would be closer. Herpes, Hep D, coronaviruses (upper respiratory mostly), and a number of other hemorrhagic viruses like Bunyaviridae.

Given that the infected nurses were doing their best to remain healthy and taking CDC-recommended precautions, I have no doubt that Ebola could cause just as much mayhem as noro, or roto for that matter, in any school, office, or other location into which it is introduced.

Yes, like I said the noro survival is an order of magnitude longer, and it is not easily killed by detergents or bleach. If Ebola were like that there would be a million dead by now in Africa. OTOH the envelope that makes Ebola more fragile makes it much more lethal.

53 posted on 10/13/2014 3:09:37 AM PDT by palmer (This comment is not approved or cleared by FDA)
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To: palmer
Any enveloped virus would be closer. Herpes, Hep D, coronaviruses (upper respiratory mostly), and a number of other hemorrhagic viruses like Bunyaviridae.

Hmmm, compare Ebola to Herpes, simplex 1 (aka cold sore) I'm assuming? So you want to compare Ebola transmission to Herpes Simplex 1 transmission?

Hep D has the same transmission profile as HIV. Again, not a match for CDC's Ebola profile.

I'm guessing you're thinking Hanta for bunyaviridae? Respiratory vector, which makes its profile very different than that CDC insists for Ebola.

I'm looking at the rate of transmission in the population given the stated transmission vectors. If I used corona or hanta, exdemomom would have kittens insisting I'm spreading misinformation about Ebola and it's airborne status.

Noro makes the most sense to me because it has the closest transmission profile--infected feces, vomit, etc. --to that put forward for Ebola. We can discuss the particular differences between Noro and Ebola, and how those differences affect the two pathogens' rates of spread, but your suggested alternative pathogens don't share Ebola's transmission profile.

If Ebola were like that there would be a million dead by now in Africa.

How do you know there aren't? MSF says the official counts aren't even close to accurate, are off by a factor of at least five. How do you know there won't be a million dead Africans by the end of the month? Given the many, many times the virus has upended official pronouncements of what it can and cannot do, I'm leery of any assurance that we know XYZ.

So let's say that Ebola's transmission is a fourth of that of noro based upon reduced environmental persistence. That's five million cases of Ebola in the US alone (20m annual noro cases/4). Given a 70% mortality rate, that's 3,500,000 dead.

54 posted on 10/13/2014 5:05:51 AM PDT by ElenaM
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To: ElenaM; palmer

I should’ve noted that the 3.5M dead does not take into account any vaccine, post-exposure treatment, etc. It’s just raw numbers.


55 posted on 10/13/2014 5:09:27 AM PDT by ElenaM
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To: ElenaM
So let's say that Ebola's transmission is a fourth of that of noro based upon reduced environmental persistence. That's five million cases of Ebola in the US alone (20m annual noro cases/4). Given a 70% mortality rate, that's 3,500,000 dead.

Very bad math. First of all, noro is already endemic, ebola is not. Think of ebola like malaria. When malaria strikes here (happens fairly often), they track, isolate and spray any infected mosquito populations. At most we end up with a handful of cases. Malaria used to be endemic from Florida to Michigan (actually all the way to the Arctic). Now it is gone.

Granted mosquitoes are the only vector for malaria (a very fragile protoplasm) not contact, not fomites. But the seriousness with which we treat it is representative. Ebola will never be endemic here unlike noro.

56 posted on 10/13/2014 5:34:37 AM PDT by palmer (This comment is not approved or cleared by FDA)
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To: ElenaM
I should've noted that the 3.5M dead does not take into account any vaccine, post-exposure treatment, etc. It's just raw numbers.

Ok. You should also consider disinfection. There are reasons they run around with bleach sprayers in Africa: cheap and effective.

57 posted on 10/13/2014 5:36:14 AM PDT by palmer (This comment is not approved or cleared by FDA)
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To: Black Agnes

May God have mercy on them, and upon us all!

Our government is now openly engaging in biological warfare against we, the people of the USA.


58 posted on 10/13/2014 5:14:02 PM PDT by sarasmom (The Benghazi Brief – (Extortion 17 also partially explained))
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