Washington Post's election model gives Republicans a 95% chance of winning the Senate.

WAPO ^ | October 10, 2014 | Chris Cillizza

[Din Maker]

The Washington Post's Election Lab -- our statistical model designed to predict outcomes of the various races on the ballot this fall -- is currently showing Republicans with a 95 percent chance of winning the Senate. While most political handicappers suggest Republicans have an edge in the battle for the Senate majority, few would say it is as heavily tilted toward the GOP as Election Lab. And, even other statistical models -- kept by FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times -- project far more caution about the likely outcome in 25 days time. Nate Silver's model pegs it at a 58 percent chance. The New York Times' at a 66 percent chance.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Yesterday I had a knock down drag out debate with Greg Brannon on a Raleigh radio talk show about his lack of support from Tillis. I think I cleaned his clock - frankly. He had no retort to my points other than “well, we disagree.”

I supported Brannon, have tremendous respect for him as a man, and he would have been a fantastic Senator and would have romped Hagan. But he’s turned into a full fledged “Paul bot” lately. So disappointing. He doesn’t have a clue, nor does his pathetic campaign staff, that the majority of his supporters were the REagan Palin Limbaugh Cruz Lee Levin voters, not the Paul bots. And most of them are appalled by his lack of support.

[C. Edmund Wright]

With government this big, every election is a national election. Harry Reid is the most impactful Senator in all 50 states, period. Obama impacts all 50 states, period.

Local elections are something about 40 years past their sell by date.

[wastoute]

Few of these races have the 5% lead the GOP KNOWS they need to overwhelm Rat fraud. I predict Dems hold the Senate.

[nhwingut]

Right. Which is always my other rule. Collins is a steal seat. Conservatives would be advised to give her space to keep the number. But a RINO in a red state is totally unacceptable. They should be held accountable. And primaried. But when primary is over, the RINO beats a Harry Reid-caucusing Democrat any day.

[wastoute]

As they say, youth and energy loses to experience and duplicity, every time.

[going hot]

But be aware that there are certainly some Dem plants here at good old FR who are pushing the anti-Cochran, never vote for GOPe candidates, Tea Party or nothing positions. Trust me, they are out to hurt our cause and they are having some success.

I am shocked, yes shocked! Round up the usual suspects.

[rrrod]

I called my family there..told them to vote no matter what. Hopefully they will. True enough the long knives are after Tillis...maybe Ted Cruz can make an appearance?

[deport]

Yes, the GOP could still win the Senate without Mississippi - but
they could also LOSE the Senate because of MS.

********************

There has been only one poll done in MS that I can find since back in mid July.
It was done by:
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20 - 10/1 826 LV 4.0 46 35 Cochran +11
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ms/mississippi_senate_cochran_vs_childers-4179.html

I’d think there would be more news out there if the Dems thought MS
was in play for them. JMO

[billhilly]

You write as if you believe the outcome of this election will be decided by what is written here. It won’t.

[billhilly]

You write as if you believe the outcome of this election will be decided by what is written here. It won’t.

[GOPJ]

"Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences." Robert Louis Stevenson

Love your tag Liz...

[C. Edmund Wright]

Right. Which is always my other rule. Collins is a steal seat. Conservatives would be advised to give her space to keep the number. But a RINO in a red state is totally unacceptable. They should be held accountable. And primaried. But when primary is over, the RINO beats a Harry Reid-caucusing Democrat any day.

Every word is true....so I thought I'd re post it. Also, I know you'll enjoy this: http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/01/what_has_brown_done_for_us.html

[Starboard]

Great cartoon. Thanks for posting.

[Maceman]

You write as if you believe the outcome of this election will be decided by what is written here. It won’t

I agree, it won't. I write because I can't stand to see lies and evil and tyranny presented as truth and goodness and freedom.

So I send my thoughts out into the online ether through free Republic because otherwise I will go crazy just keeping them bottled up.

And if I end up influencing the thinking of a few people, or giving some people good arguments to use in spreading conservative ideas, then maybe it's worth it.

And who knows? Maybe it could turn out like "Horton Hears a Who!"

[KC_Conspirator]

I hear its a gawd awful campaign. Has he run any negative ads yet? Has he tied Hagan to Obama and his terrible policies? Or is he still running lame RINO ads?

[KC_Conspirator]

That is foolishness. You dont win by losing.

[C. Edmund Wright]

He’s tied Hagan to Obama a little bit - but it hasn’t been the over all gist of his campaign thrust, and it should be. I don’t think he’s mentioned Harry Reid, which is inexcusable. He’s allowed Hagan to make this about teacher pay, and her outside groups are really running a whole lot of despicable misleading ads.

I’m hopeful he closes strong, and my hunch is he’ll sneak across by a smidgeon.

[Theodore R.]

The Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat in MS since Haley Barbour lost to Stennis in 1982.

[Theodore R.]

Tillis probably hasn’t mentioned Harry Reid because most in NC have never heard of Harry Reid. But what about Mel Tillis; is he available to campaign? The NC people have heard of Mel Tillis.

[C. Edmund Wright]

In a mid term election, the electorate in large numbers will have heard of Harry Reid. It would help turn out conservatives and help fund raising to go hard at Harry Reid. And more people would hear of Harry Reid if Tillis mentioned him.

No excuse not to. none. Running against Nancy Pelosi worked in 2010.