Washington Post's election model gives Republicans a 95% chance of winning the Senate.

WAPO ^ | October 10, 2014 | Chris Cillizza

[Din Maker]

The Washington Post's Election Lab -- our statistical model designed to predict outcomes of the various races on the ballot this fall -- is currently showing Republicans with a 95 percent chance of winning the Senate. While most political handicappers suggest Republicans have an edge in the battle for the Senate majority, few would say it is as heavily tilted toward the GOP as Election Lab. And, even other statistical models -- kept by FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times -- project far more caution about the likely outcome in 25 days time. Nate Silver's model pegs it at a 58 percent chance. The New York Times' at a 66 percent chance.

[csivils]

You can call me names, but you cannot defend your position. One more loss for the GOPe cheerleading squad.

[C. Edmund Wright]

One more loss for the GOPe cheerleading squad.

Okay, I'm going to school and embarrass you - and prove that you don't have a clue what you're babbling about....and you are just babbling arrogantly and ignorantly - emphasis on IGNORANTLY!!!! Calling me part of the GOPe cheerleading squad just shows you are a little child getting lost in an adult conversation. Read and learn.

[C. Edmund Wright]

I’ll accept your apology for calling me a GOPe any time now.

You could accuse me of a number of things that might have some merit, but that’s breathtakingly ignorant.

[campaignPete R-CT]

this thread took off like a rocket

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

A victory that I will not share. Time for me to emigrate out of the land of the Yankees.

[csivils]

You need to change your password, because some imposter has been posting pro-Rino garbage from your account.

Post 45:
A RINO Republican wining will increase the power of people like Ted Cruz and Trey Gowdy and Louie Gohmert and Mike Lee and so on. PERIOD. End of that discussion too.

Post 64:
But when primary is over, the RINO beats a Harry Reid-caucusing Democrat any day.

[csivils]

You can beat your chest, brag about your books, but in this thread you have made the argument to pinch our noses and vote for the Rino. That time is over, the GOPe has pulled that stunt too many times and this is not a presidential election year.

Yeah, still calling you a GOPe cheerleader on this issue. Write a book about it.

[csivils]

If you wish to stop acting insulted, and defend your position that a vote for a RINO is worth it... I’d welcome the chance to respond... although I have already posted my thoughts on the matter and you decided to throw a fit rather than respond...

[srmorton]

I voted for Brannon, too, but I will happily vote for Tillis on November 4. I did not watch any of the debates because I could not listen to Kay Hagan for more than a few seconds, but apparently Tillis held his own, especially last Thursday night. Thanks for the info about Brannnon. I do not understand conservatives who think a far left Dem is preferable to a Republican that does not perfectly fit their idea of a “true conservative”!

[C. Edmund Wright]

I’ve made that case - but I’ll type reeeeeaaaal slow so that you, in your limited reading comprehension, can understand it. Follow along this time:

We must remove Harry Reid from power this cycle. I’ve said that if we could do that while, say Thad Cochran goes down, that would be awesome. Ditto McConnell. In fact, I’ve engaged some who think those are worth losing regardless when they make the case - but when little children start throwing around idiotic statements like GOPe cheerleader and so on, they out themselves as to intellectually stunted to carry on a real debate.

Now - it appears too close to risk losing those two and still take the Senate away from Reid and Obama. And as far as Tillis goes, he’s not that bad, altho his campaign is terrible. Neither is Roberts that bad in Kansas. Not great, but not that bad.

If you still can’t follow along, ask your husband.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Thanks for the info about Brannnon. I do not understand conservatives who think a far left Dem is preferable to a Republican that does not perfectly fit their idea of a “true conservative”!

Brannon says he can't violate his principle - thus he will not support Tillis. But that's Paul bot martyr bullsh-t - for TWO reasons. First, Brannon's Constitutional principles will be violated more by a Hagan win than a Tillis win. He needs to grow up and admit it. SECOND- Brannon still supports Rand Paul unabashedly for President - even though Rand has stumbled and fumbled and been far worse than Tillis for the last year or so.

[csivils]

Keep typing slow, maybe you will eventually make some sense.

“We must remove Harry Reid from power this cycle”

WHY

This isn’t about personalities, it is about governance. What benefit are we going to get by taking the senate:

Here are the best four arguments I have heard in favor:

1. Maybe they might block the worst of Obama’s appointments... maybe.
2. They might pass bills to force unpopular vetos... (of course Obama is a lame duck, doesn’t care, is already unpopular and the Dems are already running away from Obama on the campaign trails)
3. McConnell “I’ll destroy the tea party” is ordained leader of the senate.
4. We need to be in good shape for a tough election in 2016. But this is circular because it assumes a Rino majority is worth having.

Now, here are the drawbacks to RINOS. Please (do type slow), and tell my how these are outweighed by the GOPe mantra of get Harry Reid.

1. Every Rino is one more vote for a weak/moderate Republican leader in the senate. Ouch.
2. Every Rino is a potential “gang of 8/10/12” member which means even if we win the majority, we don’t have control.
3. Red state Rinos are harder to get rid of than a democrat.
4. Rinos will be desperate to get something passed to show they are doing something... anything. So they are likely to bend over backwards to get Obama to “compromise” on some issue that they give in on.
5. Having control of both houses gives the dem’s an out during the presidential election to run against the do-nothing legislature. If Dem’s keep the senate, then they own the state of the nation.
6. Having RINO jump ship on crucial votes lets the dem’s call that action bi-partisan and avoid accountability for the harms that they do.
7. Rinos are not going to vote against Obama appointments anyways, and are likely to vote to close filibusters. Looking at you Senator Cornball!
8. Rinos love to badmouth other Republicans and do more damage since they are perceived to be on the same side. Go go Gov Krispy Kreme.

I have no problems with Roberts, I’m not up to speed on Tillis so I don’t have an opinion there. Cochran and McConnell are not worth the price.

You can keep insulting me, but you can’t win this argument. You are on the wrong side.

[C. Edmund Wright]

you’re too stupid, way too stupid, to even know what I’m saying. I only scanned that last blather....you bore me with your slow wittedness. I’m done......

[dennisw]

Cochran is scum be he’s our scum.

I always vote for our scum over Democrat scum

[Impy]

Well, CT doesn’t have a Senate race this year.

I feel like we’d have had half a chance in Illannoy, if primary voters hadn’t foolishly nominated Jim Oberdouche over a better candidate.

[csivils]

Well.... Bye.

[InterceptPoint]

I always vote for our scum over Democrat scum
++++
LOL. Me too.

[Theodore R.]

Surely you don’t think the average person on the streets of Durham, Raleigh, or Charlotte recognize Harry Reid.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Surely you don’t think the average person on the streets of Durham, Raleigh, or Charlotte recognize Harry Reid.

Point 1: the "average person" universe is not relevant in a mid term election. Much smaller, much more involved voter base in mid terms.

Point 2: Nancy Pelosi was introduced to a lot of people by Republican campaigns in 2010, and it worked. When you assume a campaign must meet people where they are, you are acting like a typical GOP consultant. When you understand a campaign can educate people, you are being more Reaganesque.

Point 3: Tillis is suffering from luke warm to cold responses from tea party types, and yes, I think about 99.9% of Tea Party types know who Harry Reid is and it would be a great way for Tillis to reach that segment.

[humblegunner]

Okay, I'm going to school and embarrass you - and prove that you don't have a clue what you're babbling about.

Translation:

DON'T YOU KNOW WHO I AM???

What a weak-assed tool.

[C. Edmund Wright]

Not at all HG. I’m gonna do something here that is normally way above your head, but for your sake, I’ll give it a try anyway.

A:I was accused of being a RINO cheerleader. Even you would have to admit that was an absurd claim. I can be accused of a lot of things legitimately, but it’s retarded to call me any kind of GOP E hack or tool or cheerleader.

B: There is one way to quickly point this out in a picture. I used it. That’s all.

C: If this moron had wanted to have a grown up debate about which races were worth losing to make a point and which ones were not, I would have happily engaged him. I even said that if I knew the Senate were being taken away from Reid and Obama, I’d love for Cochran and McConnell to lose. But no, this moron wanted to make ignorant statements, and you idioticially chimed in on the losing team.