Posted on 09/22/2014 7:50:29 PM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Gold shined brightly at the beginning of 2014, with bullion prices jumping by about 13% from New Year’s Day until mid-March. But since spring, and particularly since July, gold prices have been on the decline. Last week, the precious metal settled near lows not seen since Christmas 2013. So should investors consider this sell-off as an opportunity to buy precious metals on the cheap? Or is gold really tarnished for some time to come? Sadly for gold bugs, it’s the latter.
There’s always a big argument for gold as the only alternative amid overpriced stocks, a weak U.S. recovery and a fragile dollar that will collapse at any time. If you want to make those arguments in the face of the facts, feel free to scroll down to the comments section and make fun of my receding hairline. But for those interested in reality, it’s important to note how much those arguments have missed the mark over the past few years and how they ignore recent data to the contrary. The stock market, U.S. economy and the dollar are all doing quite well. Judging by recent data, all three look like they will improve.
Here’s why I wouldn’t expect gold to rebound anytime soon, and why the outlook for this precious metal is quite tarnished:
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
Buy, buy, buy!
“How does a guy who lives in 1985 transmit messages to us in 2014?”
A souped up, nuclear Delorean?
Gold is on sale!
.
.
So is silver!
Isn’t that the appropriate and timely response?
Our huge and growing national debt puts a near limit on the growth of the strength of the dollar.
I’m really neutral on the metals at present and have been for maybe 2 years.
Right now, the strong dollar is destroying gold and oil, with a secondary nod to the screaming stock market.
It is my belief that gold costs just under $1k/oz to dig up, purify, and melt into an ingot available for sale for $1250-$1300, depending upon format. So there is no impetus for price rise as far as I am concerned. This was not the case when gold was $265 or $300 or $400. in the early 2000’s. That was clearly below the cost of production. There are some cheaper mines and some more expensive mines.
Likewise with silver, every idiot trying to sell me silver claims that the production costs are $15-$17 and that is complete nonsense. I believe silver costs less than $10 to produce.
Under current conditions, as time goes on and on with more and more people unhappy with their stranded metals, any price rise is going to scare supply out of hiding. I think that will cap prices for a long, long time.
Thus, I believe these metals will do approximately nothing whatsoever for 2-3-5 years. There will be trading opportunities in the etfs, particularly the double and triple etfs (NUGT and DUST) but the metals themselves will not move enough to overcome the rotten spreads on physical.
That’s just my opinion. I own plenty of silver, not much gold, I wish I owned a little more gold, but I am neither a seller not a buyer. I honestly could not be more netural. Just my .02.
What gold IS, is a store of value. The guy on the radio says that "it's never been worth zero" and he is right. Throughout recorded history, gold has been a valued commodity. I see no reason that it will change anytime soon.
However, when I look at the debt, lack of manufacturing, general employment situation, and quality of leadership from the Fed in particular, and DC in general, my faith in the dollar has a case of the hiccups. Yawning doesn't seem to help, but a pile of gold has a soothing effect.
YMMV
That can have numerous causes. I tend to believe that the dollar strength we’re currently experiencing is flight to safety. Dollar strength can and does drive down the price of gold in dollars.
............
Its more than a flight to safety.
The US fracking revolution is printing many more real dollars than the fed is printing fiat dollars.
See what I’m doing with my other hand?
for now there’s no place oil prices will continue downward until the saudis do something dramatic like take a million barrels@ day off their production.
Now you see it, now you don’t!
The fracking boom led to the dollar strength earlier in the year, we’re in the midst of the longest dollar rally since... 1967. The more recent dollar spike leading to the precipitous drop in PM’s is flight to safety, imho.
Gold is now about 65 times more expensive than silver. Historically it was always somewhere between 9 and 16 times as expensive as silver. I believe one of the forces pushing down gold us a level-seeking relative to silver; other forces are pushing them both down.
If one wants metal for security, I’d buy silver. I do.
That’s when he lost all credibility. The gold and silver market is clearly rigged. Demand is going up despite the price drop. We are selling our gold and silver to the BRICS on the cheap. It is a crime.
Either way...
Just my own opinion.
Watch what gold does price-wise if the U.S. Dollar collapses.
We are all destined to be RICH!
If the dollar price of gold happens to be down it’s a safe bet it’s because the price of “paper gold” is being manipulated. That just can’t last forever.
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