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In Senate battle, the Wild Cards become Alaska and Kansas
The Upshot ^ | Septermber 19, 2014 | Nate Cohn

Posted on 09/22/2014 10:21:22 AM PDT by Din Maker

The last few weeks of public polling have offered surprising results. North Carolina and Michigan have moved toward the Democrats, while Arkansas and Louisiana have drifted toward the Republicans. The result: The list of battleground states has shrunk, with only Alaska, Iowa and Kansas remaining as true tossups.

If all of the candidates currently leading in the polls go on to win, then the party that wins two from the list of Iowa, Alaska and Kansas will win the Senate.

The race in Kansas is unusual: It’s barely underway, and The Democratic candidate Chad Taylor withdrew from the race on Sept. 3, setting up a potential one-on-one contest between Greg Orman, an independent, and Pat Roberts, the embattled Republican incumbent.

Mr. Orman will have the opportunity to consolidate the anti-Roberts vote. There are very few precedents for a race between an independent candidate and an unpopular incumbent in a state as solidly Republican as Kansas. Mr. Roberts has a low approval rating and faces criticism about whether he’s a genuine resident of Kansas.

Polls show Mr. Orman ahead by a modest margin, but Mr. Roberts’s campaign has only recently begun to air television advertisements, ending Mr. Orman’s uncontested dominance of the airwaves. It remains to be seen whether Mr. Orman can retain his advantage in such a Republican state.

Alaska is a tossup in part because it is so uncertain: Alaska polls have missed statewide contests by an average of more than seven percentage points since 2000. It is quite possible that either candidate has a meaningful advantage and we just don’t know it. We might not know until the results come in on election night.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: senateraces
If all of the candidates currently leading in the polls go on to win, then the party that wins two from the list of Iowa, Alaska and Kansas will win the Senate.

Well, this is an excerpt of the Article. It was a fun read, but, I think it is way too early for anyone to make the statement above that I italicized, from the article. Six weeks away from Election Day; anything can happen.
1 posted on 09/22/2014 10:21:22 AM PDT by Din Maker
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To: Din Maker

It remains to be seen whether Mr. Orman can retain his advantage (over Pat Roberts) in such a Republican state.
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I’m thinking prolly not.


2 posted on 09/22/2014 10:23:15 AM PDT by Din Maker (I've always been crazy, but, that's the only thing that's kept me from going insane.)
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To: Din Maker

If by some miracle Roberts can come back and win in KS, the Repubs should be on track to get my predicted +4 gain in the Senate.


3 posted on 09/22/2014 10:30:10 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If it doesn't include border security, it isn't "reform." It's called "amnesty.")
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To: Din Maker
, with only Alaska, Iowa and Kansas remaining as true tossups.

I don't think everyone will agree with that claim.

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4 posted on 09/22/2014 10:30:45 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer.)
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To: Din Maker
"It remains to be seen whether Mr. Orman can retain his advantage (over Pat Roberts) in such a Republican state.'

Of course Kansas is the state that elected Kathleen Sebelius (D) as governor.

5 posted on 09/22/2014 10:35:03 AM PDT by buckalfa (Long time caller --- first time listener.)
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To: Din Maker

Kay Hagan is taking/keeping NC, and i am disgusted... i could “feel” things turning her way as time has passed... this one should have been easy...


6 posted on 09/22/2014 10:41:57 AM PDT by latina4dubya (when i have money i buy books... if i have anything left, i buy 6-inch heels and a bottle of wine...)
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To: Din Maker

I think the wild cards are CO and MN.


7 posted on 09/22/2014 10:45:23 AM PDT by Mike Darancette (The first stage of cultural death is denial.)
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To: latina4dubya
Kay Hagan is taking/keeping NC, and i am disgusted... i could “feel” things turning her way as time has passed... this one should have been easy...

YEP!!! You are so very right! But, when Karl Rove and Mitch McConnell pick your nominee, what is one to expect? I read what Tillis, supposedly, stands for from his Web page. But, Tillis dude is not conveying a Conservative message. The only message he's been sending is: "Kay Hagan likes Obama." Pul-eeeeeeeze!

I share your frustration. The GOPe never mentions all of "their" chosen candidates who have lost elections. They just point to Tea Party candidates like Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock. Hypocrites!
8 posted on 09/22/2014 10:57:03 AM PDT by Din Maker (I've always been crazy, but, that's the only thing that's kept me from going insane.)
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To: Mike Darancette

I think CO and MN will be a split. We get CO, they keep MN.


9 posted on 09/22/2014 10:58:05 AM PDT by Din Maker (I've always been crazy, but, that's the only thing that's kept me from going insane.)
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To: Din Maker

Pat Roberts could win in KS and spend less than $500K to do it. All he has to do is make an apology for not living here, make a big show of buying a house and actually moving here, then publicly denounce Thad and Mitch. Easy. He doesn’t even have to talk about Orman.

Sadly he will do none of those things. If he loses, watch for the GOPe to try and blame conservatives instead of looking in the mirror.


10 posted on 09/22/2014 11:00:58 AM PDT by Zenot
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To: Mike Darancette

Keep the personal rhetoric low, hang Obama around the neck of every low life, traitor, Democrat running for office...don’t panic and listen to the Obamabot meida vermin!!! If everyone with half-a-brain turns out and votes against every Democrat running for office...us good guys will do quite well!!! Alaska, Kansas and North Carolina will go Pubbie for the Senate!!!

And....if it is PPP poll (Democrat)....toss it in the garbage can. Their mantra is to go positive Democrat a month out from the election day....and then as their numbers drop, they adjust them to reality on the last weekend before the election. Trust no polls, good or bad. Just simple vote to destroy the Demcrat Party, politically and Obama...with it!!!


11 posted on 09/22/2014 11:02:41 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX ( My only objective is to defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!.)
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To: Zenot

If he loses, watch for the GOPe to try and blame conservatives instead of looking in the mirror.
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Fo’ sho. I’m really thinking that the crusty, arrogant, old fart just might lose this election. That will be the shocker of 2014. Six months ago, who’d a thought we’d even be discussing Kansas at this juncture?


12 posted on 09/22/2014 11:08:40 AM PDT by Din Maker (I've always been crazy, but, that's the only thing that's kept me from going insane.)
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To: latina4dubya

One of the polls in the RCP average - that has her ahead by 10 had a D oversample by 9. You can find it on the page. A even turnout in NC is D+1, they have it as D+10. (Hence an oversample of D+9) The turnout on election day nationwide will be +6 or +7 R... Figure it out. The RCP average is messed up because they just put anybody’s polls up there. Look at polls individually, and at the internals.


13 posted on 09/22/2014 11:26:32 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Now there ARE 1,000,000 regrets - but it may be too late.)
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To: Din Maker

There are lots of stupid people in Alaska. Lots of stupid villages who listen to rat promises of free money. I wouldn’t count on Alaskans doing the right thing, sad to say but I won’t.


14 posted on 09/22/2014 11:30:54 AM PDT by vpintheak (Keep calm and Fire for Effect!)
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To: latina4dubya
Here is a new poll Highpoint U that seems to be closer to the truth. Being a college, and with a built in left bias... This should send a chill up Hagan's spine.
Fox News Sunday was relying on the RCP averages without this but with the outliar with Hagan +10.

Surprise!
Hagan 42 Tillis 40 Haugh 6 undecided 12
D 35 R 32 I 24
An incumbent under 50? Hmmm... Who is trying to pump up Hagan?
15 posted on 09/22/2014 11:48:44 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Now there ARE 1,000,000 regrets - but it may be too late.)
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To: Din Maker

I saw an ad the other day where Begich was trashing the heck out of the Kenyan. Begich is trying to come across like the head of the TEA Party in Alaska. The boy is scared.


16 posted on 09/22/2014 12:42:49 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Don't just stand there! Help fight political correctness!)
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To: Din Maker

I’d like to see Franken walk the plank-en. If they threw some money in MN I think they could make a race of it. Go negative on his sorry a$$.


17 posted on 09/22/2014 3:18:26 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (The first stage of cultural death is denial.)
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To: BigEdLB

i am going with what is in the air... several months ago, i was convinced that Hagan was gone... not so much now... especially since her opponent isn’t all that... this should have been an easy steal for the Republicans... we are not gaining on this terrible candidate with a record...


18 posted on 09/22/2014 5:16:10 PM PDT by latina4dubya (when i have money i buy books... if i have anything left, i buy 6-inch heels and a bottle of wine...)
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