I don't think everyone will agree with that claim.
Posted on 09/22/2014 10:21:22 AM PDT by Din Maker
The last few weeks of public polling have offered surprising results. North Carolina and Michigan have moved toward the Democrats, while Arkansas and Louisiana have drifted toward the Republicans. The result: The list of battleground states has shrunk, with only Alaska, Iowa and Kansas remaining as true tossups.
If all of the candidates currently leading in the polls go on to win, then the party that wins two from the list of Iowa, Alaska and Kansas will win the Senate.
The race in Kansas is unusual: It’s barely underway, and The Democratic candidate Chad Taylor withdrew from the race on Sept. 3, setting up a potential one-on-one contest between Greg Orman, an independent, and Pat Roberts, the embattled Republican incumbent.
Mr. Orman will have the opportunity to consolidate the anti-Roberts vote. There are very few precedents for a race between an independent candidate and an unpopular incumbent in a state as solidly Republican as Kansas. Mr. Roberts has a low approval rating and faces criticism about whether he’s a genuine resident of Kansas.
Polls show Mr. Orman ahead by a modest margin, but Mr. Roberts’s campaign has only recently begun to air television advertisements, ending Mr. Orman’s uncontested dominance of the airwaves. It remains to be seen whether Mr. Orman can retain his advantage in such a Republican state.
Alaska is a tossup in part because it is so uncertain: Alaska polls have missed statewide contests by an average of more than seven percentage points since 2000. It is quite possible that either candidate has a meaningful advantage and we just don’t know it. We might not know until the results come in on election night.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
It remains to be seen whether Mr. Orman can retain his advantage (over Pat Roberts) in such a Republican state.
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I’m thinking prolly not.
If by some miracle Roberts can come back and win in KS, the Repubs should be on track to get my predicted +4 gain in the Senate.
I don't think everyone will agree with that claim.
Of course Kansas is the state that elected Kathleen Sebelius (D) as governor.
Kay Hagan is taking/keeping NC, and i am disgusted... i could “feel” things turning her way as time has passed... this one should have been easy...
I think the wild cards are CO and MN.
I think CO and MN will be a split. We get CO, they keep MN.
Pat Roberts could win in KS and spend less than $500K to do it. All he has to do is make an apology for not living here, make a big show of buying a house and actually moving here, then publicly denounce Thad and Mitch. Easy. He doesn’t even have to talk about Orman.
Sadly he will do none of those things. If he loses, watch for the GOPe to try and blame conservatives instead of looking in the mirror.
Keep the personal rhetoric low, hang Obama around the neck of every low life, traitor, Democrat running for office...don’t panic and listen to the Obamabot meida vermin!!! If everyone with half-a-brain turns out and votes against every Democrat running for office...us good guys will do quite well!!! Alaska, Kansas and North Carolina will go Pubbie for the Senate!!!
And....if it is PPP poll (Democrat)....toss it in the garbage can. Their mantra is to go positive Democrat a month out from the election day....and then as their numbers drop, they adjust them to reality on the last weekend before the election. Trust no polls, good or bad. Just simple vote to destroy the Demcrat Party, politically and Obama...with it!!!
If he loses, watch for the GOPe to try and blame conservatives instead of looking in the mirror.
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Fo’ sho. I’m really thinking that the crusty, arrogant, old fart just might lose this election. That will be the shocker of 2014. Six months ago, who’d a thought we’d even be discussing Kansas at this juncture?
One of the polls in the RCP average - that has her ahead by 10 had a D oversample by 9. You can find it on the page. A even turnout in NC is D+1, they have it as D+10. (Hence an oversample of D+9) The turnout on election day nationwide will be +6 or +7 R... Figure it out. The RCP average is messed up because they just put anybody’s polls up there. Look at polls individually, and at the internals.
There are lots of stupid people in Alaska. Lots of stupid villages who listen to rat promises of free money. I wouldn’t count on Alaskans doing the right thing, sad to say but I won’t.
I saw an ad the other day where Begich was trashing the heck out of the Kenyan. Begich is trying to come across like the head of the TEA Party in Alaska. The boy is scared.
I’d like to see Franken walk the plank-en. If they threw some money in MN I think they could make a race of it. Go negative on his sorry a$$.
i am going with what is in the air... several months ago, i was convinced that Hagan was gone... not so much now... especially since her opponent isn’t all that... this should have been an easy steal for the Republicans... we are not gaining on this terrible candidate with a record...
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