Posted on 09/12/2014 5:01:50 AM PDT by Qiviut
A top Ebola researcher tells Newsmax Health there is a 20 percent chance that the deadly virus will begin spreading within the U.S. in the next two weeks.
Ira Longini, a professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida, was part of a team of researchers that used a mathematical model to generate projections of the epidemic spread of Ebola worldwide. The scientists took into consideration daily airline passenger travel worldwide, information about the disease’s spread rate, and other factors.
“As the Ebola outbreak in West Africa continues to spread, isolated cases will likely make their way to the United States,” Longini told Newsmax Health. “Our latest estimates show there is a nearly 20 percent chance that this will occur within two weeks.”
In the long run, the probability the fatal disease will spread here is “almost inevitable,” added Longini, who collaborated in a new Ebola analysis published in the journal PLOS Currents: Outbreaks.
The tipping point may be disease levels in Nigeria, he says.
“There is not a high level of international travel from some of the affected countries such as Liberia and Sierra Leone to the U.S. But Nigeria, where the outbreak has also spread, is linked to many countries across the globe,” said Longini.
As many as 6,000 passengers travel from Nigeria to the U.S. each week, according to the study.
Although cutting off air travel from Nigeria would seem logical, Longini said it would likely only delay the inevitable. “It might slow the transmission of the virus, but it doesn’t change the probability that someone would make it through to the U.S. You can’t quarantine an entire county, so infected people will get out and eventually make their way to the U.S.,” he said.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmaxhealth.com ...
If Obama sends boots on the ground to Africa to aid in the fight against ebola, won’t that change the odds dramatically in favor of ebola coming to our shores?
An article that I read earlier this week indicated inadequate trained staff, facilities, and protective equipment in Nigeria.
They were so swamped and overwhelmed that they had to turn back 30% of the people looking for medical treatment.
As a result, there will be additional contamination not covered in the WHO statistics of known victims ,
and therefore the total number of victims, both known and unknown, will double in two weeks.
And the number will double in another two weeks , etc., etc..
It is a distant side story because the powers have decided not to panic the public.
Holy cow, man! That thing is very easy to follow and covers a LOT of the stuff I’ve been working out.
On a side note, my first 18 years as a believer I attended Assembly of God church and for the first two years I was a pre-tribulationist until I started studying it. Then I became a believer in, well, what you describe in your spreadsheet.
One thing I find interesting about your dates: The bible teaches that “this generation shall not pass away untill all these things come to pass, and a generation in the bible is fairly commonly described as 70 years. Well, to me the timeline began when Israel became a country in 1948, so I’ve been under the impression that the time around 2018 is where this comes down. It’s a part of why I stand so strongly behind my tagline.
But still reading...
BTW, excellent use of excel features to include detail without cluttering it up. :-)
HA! Just watched that a couple of nights ago.
I like to say that every think I need to know about personal hygene I learned from War of the Worlds. :-P
I would say ‘yes’.
ping
Ebola pretty much is a remote disease affecting few people. Previously, the only outbreaks were in remote areas where it was relatively easy to bring under control. This outbreak is different because it got into an urban area.
Ebola is not really very contagious. If it were to become transmissible by the airborne route, however, it would be a disaster. Ebola is spread through physical contact, and is only contagious when symptomatic.
Ebola is not really very contagious. If it were to become transmissible by the airborne route, however, it would be a disaster. Ebola is spread through physical contact, and is only contagious when symptomatic.
I moved from Seattle to rural central KY. The hospital near where I live is a very, VERY nice facility, appearance wise. It looks very much like the places in the Seattle area. If I get seriously hurt, I go to Louisville, though.
Thanks for the ping!
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